Change course to avoid a collision
Victor Ângelo
The
first Quad Summit, a new platform for strategic consultations between the
United States, Australia, India and Japan, takes place today. Quad is short for
quadrilateral. Since 2007, the foreign ministers of these countries have met
sporadically to discuss the security of the Indo-Pacific region. This time, the
meeting is at the highest level, albeit virtually, with Joe Biden and the prime
ministers of the three other states.
The
US President and Scott Morrison of Australia are the real instigators of this
project. Narendra Modi and Yoshihide Suga were more reticent. They did not want
the meeting to look like what it actually is: an avenue to discuss how to curb
China's growing influence in the Indian and Pacific regions. So, the official
agenda registers only three items - fighting the pandemic; economic cooperation
and responding to climate change. This list thus hides the dominant concern,
China's increasingly resolute power in both oceans and with the riparian
states. China already has the world's largest armed fleet, with battleships,
amphibious assault ships, logistics ships, aircraft carriers, polar icebreakers,
and submarines. In the last 20 years, its naval capacity has grown threefold.
It has more vessels than the United States and its ambition for the current
five-year period (2021-2025) focuses on accelerating the production of means of
ensuring presence and visibility, increasing missile capacity of distinct types
and expanding nuclear weapons.
The
scale of these military investments and President Xi Jinping's very incisive
foreign policy alarm many US strategists. It is in this context that the Quad
summit should be seen. There are even those who think that, in time,
Washington's objective is to create a defence alliance covering the Indian
Ocean and the Pacific, in an arrangement that would be inspired by what exists
in the North Atlantic, that is, the creation of a NATO of the East.
It
will not be easy. India, notwithstanding the many border issues it has with
China, does not want to be seen by Beijing as a hostile neighbour. It seeks,
despite existing disputes, to maintain a certain diplomatic balance with the
Chinese to moderate the latter’s support for Pakistan, which Indian leaders see
as their number one enemy. Moreover, New Delhi wants to appear, not only to the
Chinese but also to the Russians, as an autonomous defence power. Modi is a
nationalist who knows a lot about geopolitics and international power play.
Japan,
for distinct reasons, does not wish to enter into an open confrontation with
China either. It will seek to continue to benefit from the American military
umbrella, but without going beyond a prudent policy towards Beijing. Tokyo is
banking more on mutual interests than on rivalry. And as long as Beijing does
not try to capture the Japanese islands of Senkaku, long the object of
diplomatic dispute between the two countries, Tokyo is unlikely to change its
position.
However,
the American strategy in this part of Asia is to create a containment front
vis-à-vis China. If the Quad initiative does not work, they will turn to
Europe, starting with NATO. This is where all this has to do with our security.
I do not defend the idea of an alliance stretched to the ends of the earth, no
matter how much Europeans see China as an unfair economic competitor or a state
that does not follow the values we consider essential - democracy, freedom, and
human rights.
The
risk of an armed confrontation in that part of the world is growing. Europe's
role must be to call for moderation, respect for international norms and
effective dialogue between the American and Chinese leaders. The global
challenges that the world faces today are already too many and require the
building of a cooperation agenda between the great powers. And there, yes, they
should be able to count on Europe's commitment.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published yesterday in the
Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
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