The
outgoing British Cabinet – a new team will take over on Wednesday, once the new
Prime Minister is confirmed – responded today to Iran’s capture of the British
tanker with a good combination of firmness and balance. It has demanded the
release of the ship and, at the same time, made the announcement that a
European naval task force will be dispatched to the Strait of Hormuz to ensure
the freedom of navigation.
The
British vessel will not be released unless there is a reciprocal action
regarding the Iranian ship that has been stopped in Gibraltar two weeks ago. London
knows it, they know how the Iranians behave in these situations. Moreover , Mohammad Javad Zarif,
the Iranian Foreign Minister, stated that condition very clearly. This is a
delicate matter because neither country wants to be perceived as giving up. The
solution would be to get both ministers to meet and make an announcement at the
end of such meeting, as a compromise between both sides. Here, third-party mediation
will not work.
As
far as the European task force is concerned, that is a good approach from a
political point of view. It keeps the British and the rest of Europe at arm’s
length from the US. The Europeans do not agree with the Americans’ stance on
Iran and do not want to be subordinated to the US. The real problem, however,
is to be able to assemble such a task force fast and effectively. I have some
doubts about that possibility.
In
the meantime, the matter will remain top of the international agenda. As I
wrote yesterday, it calls for a concerted effort to de-escalate. Someone
independent enough must take the initiative.
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