I
see the deal signed today in Doha, Qatar, between the U.S. Administration and
the medieval armed group that is known as the Taliban of Afghanistan, a
terrorist organization, as follows:
1. It gives the Taliban a
good amount of legitimacy and political standing. Both within their country and
in the international arena. It is therefore a victorious move for them. It puts
the Taliban in a much stronger position than the national government.
2. It is an electoral manoeuvre
played by the U.S. President. Donald Trump wants to be able to claim, during
the coming months leading to the November Presidential election, that he
brought the war in Afghanistan to an end. Or, at least, that he brought the American
soldiers back home from a protracted foreign conflict.
3. It will not lead to inter-Afghan
peace negotiations. The deal was not discussed with the legitimate government
in Kabul and it is not seen by its leaders as a commitment they own. The
official government will keep fighting the Taliban.
4. It does not include a
justice and reconciliation approach. The atrocities the Taliban are responsible
for are just ignored.
6. It took the American
allies also deployed in Afghanistan, under the NATO-banner called Resolute
Support Mission, for granted. They were not part of the process. They are just
supposed to follow suit. Those NATO allies have about 16,000 troops on the
ground.
1 comment:
I fully agree with your analysis. In the long run, this will be another poor policy decision, as one a similar one in the late 80s-early90s when the US also substantially withdrew presence and resources. My diplomatic and military friends all agree that that decision in 1990 set most of the subsequent tragic actions in motion. It's sad and frustrating that our policy makers don't learn from the past.
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