The Taliban deal

I see the deal signed today in Doha, Qatar, between the U.S. Administration and the medieval armed group that is known as the Taliban of Afghanistan, a terrorist organization, as follows:

1.  It gives the Taliban a good amount of legitimacy and political standing. Both within their country and in the international arena. It is therefore a victorious move for them. It puts the Taliban in a much stronger position than the national government.

2. It is an electoral manoeuvre played by the U.S. President. Donald Trump wants to be able to claim, during the coming months leading to the November Presidential election, that he brought the war in Afghanistan to an end.  Or, at least, that he brought the American soldiers back home from a protracted foreign conflict.

3.  It will not lead to inter-Afghan peace negotiations. The deal was not discussed with the legitimate government in Kabul and it is not seen by its leaders as a commitment they own. The official government will keep fighting the Taliban.

4.  It does not include a justice and reconciliation approach. The atrocities the Taliban are responsible for are just ignored.

5.  It encourages other Islamist groups in other parts of the world to keep fighting.

6.  It took the American allies also deployed in Afghanistan, under the NATO-banner called Resolute Support Mission, for granted. They were not part of the process. They are just supposed to follow suit. Those NATO allies have about 16,000 troops on the ground.

Mad people

Yesterday I wrote about social research linked to ethnicity in a city like Brussels. Today I should add a suggestion to be considered by those who look at psychological issues. I think it is also time to do some very serious research about the reasons, the psychological disturbances that lead a fellow to self-destruction and mass killings. It is important to understand that kind of deep mental disorder and maybe look at ways of preventing it of getting to the extreme. It will be another way of combatting terror.

Time for a serious overhaul of Kenya´s security apparatus

Kenya is very vulnerable to Al-Shabaab´s terrorist enterprises. 

There is the long border with Somalia, the home base for this radical group. In addition, Kenya has a large segment of its population with Somali ethnic roots. Many of them are Kenyan citizens, others are refugees who ran away from decades of violent conflict, drought and misery in Somalia. Some might feel discriminated and marginalised but they try to cope with their situation and are only concerned by making ends meet. They are peaceful people. A few of them can however, for clan-related reasons, provide some cover to extremists. 

That´s why a greater reliance of people´s participation in their own security is essential. The security services have to link better with the citizens and cultivate a relationship of trust. 

The combat against terrorist violence in Kenya calls for a new way of collecting intelligence. That´s probably the most important step that is required at this stage. It should however be complemented by additional investments in counter-insurgency training and better coordination between the defence forces and the security services. 

NATO countries should offer support to Kenya

It´s quite obvious that Kenya is a frontline country in the fight against armed and terrorist groups. The key NATO countries should engage more with Kenya and offer whatever support might be required to strengthen the capacity of the national authorities to do the necessary intelligence work and fight the terrorist organisations operating in the country or nearby.  

Iraq: a very complex and grave situation

The gravity of the situation in Iraq cannot be underestimated. As one should not be blind to the very serious impact it can have in the entire region. President Obama´s approach, as outlined today, is a prudent one. It requires however a greater degree of coordination with the key States in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, it cannot be enhanced by any type of EU action as Europe has lost its capacity to play a critical military role in the region, particularly in the context of a very violent and complex crisis. 

No time to hesitate: ISIS needs to be crushed

Let´s agree that any move that helps to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as ISIS, is deeply appreciated. It should be taken without delay. But let´s also be clear that things have already gone too far and ISIS has taken too much power and influence. It has become more difficult to thrash them. They have gained a very serious impetus thanks to our inability to foresee and take quick action. And now the more we wait the more we will have to deal with them for a very long period of time. We should understand that there is no more space for hesitation. 

Iraq should urgently seize the Security Council

Iraq is again in deep trouble. The radical combatants of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIS) are a very serious menace for peace and stability in the country. Their taking control of Mossul is a very serious indication that the Iraqi armed forces are not prepared to respond to the challenge. It is true that Mossul has always been an unstable city in a restless province. But today´s take over by the extremists of ISIS marks a new stage in a rapidly deteriorating situation.

The government needs external support to effectively stop the ISIS progression towards other regions and in the direction of Bagdad. They should take that request for support to the Security Council without any further delay. 

Egypt's future can only be built on compromise

Following the dramatic situation that has developed in Egypt, the EU and the US are struggling to issue “politically correct” statements. If you read what the European capitals have published about the events or listen to President Obama’s commentary, you realise that everyone wants to condemn the violence and, at the same time, avoid any words that might undermine the authority of the Egyptian military. This is an impossible exercise of balancing.

In the meantime, it is also impossible to be optimistic about Egypt’s foreseeable future.  Violence on both sides has gone too far and that makes the adoption of sensible positions much more difficult. Both camps seem to bet on confrontation and force, in a country that is only viable if based on compromise. And that, for me, is the key message the world should pass on to Cairo.