President Trump in Asia: Power, Adulation, and the Rearrangement of Forces in a New Era

My geopolitical calendar differs from the conventional one. The twentieth century era, marked by two major wars, the Cold War, decolonisation, and large-scale industrial expansion, ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. That is when, in my reading of history, the twenty-first century began. We entered a period of economic globalisation, multilateralism and international cooperation, the development of democratic regimes, and a focus on sustainability and major global challenges.

My calendar also tells me that the twenty-first century was rather short. It seems to have ended with Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Times changed then, with a return to former practices, the undisguised use of military and economic force as determining factors in international relations. At the same time, we have witnessed an accelerated race towards the future, driven by technological transformations and the digital revolution. The concern about inequalities between peoples has given way to insensitivity regarding development issues.

We are now in a strange and ambiguous period of universal history: we live simultaneously in the past and the future. We are connected by thousands of fibre optic cables and an increasing number of satellites. Global information is instantaneous, but it seems we are rapidly returning to old nationalist ideas, to every man for himself.

Indifference has become a distinctive feature of this new era. The excess of data ends up anaesthetising us. We become oblivious to what happens outside our immediate circle. This apathy makes it easier for populist, extremist political leaders to manipulate public opinion, using digital platforms to influence citizens’ behaviour. Paradoxically or not, the manipulators themselves end up listening to their own clamour and seem to believe the narratives they create. Thus, they fuel the cycle of misinformation and collective detachment from the major issues that remain unresolved.

In this context, commitment to critical thinking becomes fundamental. It is necessary to know how to question, analyse and interpret the intentions hidden in messages. Developing the ability to ask pertinent questions and assess the credibility of sources is essential to avoid manipulation and conformity. As Socrates argued 2,500 years ago, exploring alternative ideas and challenging established opinions is politically indispensable in a democracy.

This reflection originated from a recent comment made on one of our television channels about the new Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile, known in Russia as 9M730 Burevestnik and in NATO as Skyfall. Vladimir Putin announced that on 21 October the missile had been launched and that the test was a success. He added that the device had been airborne for 15 hours, covering more than 14,000 kilometres, and could therefore be directed at a target in the most remote corner of the planet. He also emphasised that no other state has the capability to intercept it. In other words, Russia was claiming to have taken another step towards consolidating its place at the forefront of the new era, the era of confrontation and force.

The commentator, a person I respect, said that Trump had “blithely” ignored Putin’s announcement. The reason for Trump’s indifference was missing.

I think it is relevant to try to understand this apparent disdain. I say apparent because yesterday the American president ordered his armed forces to begin a programme of nuclear tests, something that had not happened for more than three decades.

In my analysis, Trump, who has spent the week in Asia, is neither afraid of Russia nor particularly interested in Putin, except regarding the Russian war against Ukraine. He wants to add peace in Ukraine to his list of supposed peace treaties, always with the obsession for the Nobel Peace Prize. At this moment, today, Friday, he is convinced that Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. Saturday, we shall see.

Apart from that, it has become clear in recent days that the absolute priority of the US administration is rivalry with China. His tour of Asia sought to demonstrate the influence and power of the United States in a region increasingly close to China. That is why Trump was in Malaysia, at the ASEAN summit, then in Japan, South Korea, and showed moderation at yesterday’s meeting with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping. In addition to trade agreements, several of them linked to cutting-edge technologies that will define the coming years, the success of Trump’s presence in Asia and the adulation he received reinforced his illusion that the US has decisive influence in that part of the globe. Putin’s missile, however powerful it may be—something yet to be confirmed—does not matter to Trump nor distract him, as he considers the fundamental priority to be relations with Asia, in the context of competition with China.

He makes, I believe, a superficial and mistaken reading of reality. He needs to understand that this new century, which began in 2022, seems to be heading towards the de facto consolidation of the strategic alliance between China and Russia.

Donald Trump's visit to Japan

Today's Trump’s return to Tokyo signals more than a diplomatic courtesy—it’s a calculated move to reassert U.S. influence in Asia amid rising regional uncertainty. It aims at showing American power and leadership in East Asia. 

His meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi underscores a push for a tougher stance on trade and security, likely aimed at countering China’s growing clout. While billed as alliance-strengthening, Trump's visit shows we are in a new era of transactional geopolitics, where economic leverage and strategic posturing dominate the narrative. As Trump emphasised, “the U.S.–Japan partnership must be stronger than ever to ensure stability and fairness in the region”—a clear nod to both security and trade dominance.

China has come out of 2020 more daring

And the prize goes to China

Victor Angelo

 

In the big game of geopolitics, the 2020 world cup must be awarded to China. It has been an exceedingly difficult year for all countries. But here I see that the only one that really comes out stronger, after all the tests, is China. Australia and New Zealand played well, but they are in another league. They do not have by far the political weight of the champion.

The year had started badly, with the city of Wuhan - 11 million inhabitants - at the centre of the concerns. But a strong, extremely nationalistic response and a population shaped by the modern version of ancient Confucianism - those in power command, and the ones who walk the streets of life obey - has turned control of the virus into a political victory for the ruling elite. Above all, for President Xi Jinping.

And the year ended with another goal, scored in the final minutes, with the conclusion of negotiations on investment between China and the European Union. This agreement, important for both sides, had been under discussion for seven years. The drag on this was due to Chinese obstruction, who wanted to have their hands free to invest in Europe while creating obstacles to European ventures in China. Finally, and before Joe Biden took office, Beijing felt it was important to close the pact with the Europeans, thus moving them away from a more combative position that the new American administration might adopt. For the Europeans, the agreement opens the door to investments in finance, health, energy and information technology. If it is respected, it will represent a step forward in rebalancing economic relations between the two sides. The treaty also seeks to defend intellectual property rights and promote certain international labour standards, but without conviction. The Chinese authorities leave no room for manoeuvre in this area, notably in the abolition of forced labour for prisoners or ethnic minorities.

Beyond the economics, our problem with China is above all political. It concerns human rights and democratic values. And there I see no agreement on the horizon, and I guess, not in the distant future. The successes of 2020 and the accentuation of nationalism and Chinese pride, easy to press in the face of confusion in our part of the world, have strengthened the legitimacy and power of Xi Jinping. This legitimacy rests on two main pillars - economic opportunities for most citizens and the maintenance of internal order, including civic discipline. Only this week, when I spoke, as I regularly do, with my correspondents in China, I heard those two dimensions highlighted once more. In response to my references to human rights and democracy, a young Chinese woman reminded me that her generation, even those who have obtained academic degrees abroad and observed how freedoms work in other lands, makes no waves. Young people with higher education prefer to take advantage of the jobs and prosperity that remain immense in a rapidly growing China with a huge internal market. I was told that the number of applications for scholarships in the US and Europe for the next school year has grown considerably. The ambition is to obtain diplomas in prestigious institutions and then return to the market of opportunities that is China. Here, too, the Xi Jinping regime has succeeded in instilling two beliefs. One, that in the long run there will be no future for Chinese graduates who want to settle in the West, because of the growing mistrust that is said to exist there of anyone who might be seen as a surreptitious agent of the Beijing government. Another is that the future belongs to China, which will be the world's largest economy in the coming years, perhaps as early as 2028.

We enter 2021 with a China that feels more powerful and bold, even invincible. But history has long taught us that all giants have feet of clay. Xi Jinping's China, if it does not introduce a certain amount of prudence into its international relations, including moderation in the overmuch New Silk Road and acceptance of fundamental human values, may end up stumbling over its own arrogance and gigantism.  

 

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

A complex strategic game between China and India

The recent brutal border clashes between China and India caused about 20 deaths on the Indian side and an unknown number of casualties on Chinese camp. People might not know, but no bullet was fired by the opposing armies. There is a compromise between the two countries not to shoot at the other side. The soldiers fought hand-to-hand, with clubs embedded with nails or barbed wire, and other blunt weapons and rocks. Some of the Indian men were pushed into the icy waters of the Galwan river or over the mountain ridges.

That was a vicious confrontation, that brings us back to ancient practices. But it is a good illustration of the strategic rivalry that is developing between these two giants, both armed with sophisticated weaponry and nuclear capabilities. At the local level, in their border disputes – there are at least three fronts where those disputes are continually active – they go for sticks and nails. At the diplomatic level, they play the complex game of subtle threats combined with frequent high-level meetings and, on the Indian side, a special relationship with the United States, a matter that is seen as a major issue by the Chinese.

It is fascinating geopolitics but not for those who fight in the cold of the Himalayas.

Kim Jong-un keeps smiling

Today’s news is that Kim Jong-un is back. There has been a lot of speculation about his health. Now, thanks to the photos made available by the Korean Central News Agency, we know he is alive and smiling. He is also a bit fatter. That might be the result of some good time at his holiday villa, by the Sea of Japan. His sister, Kim Yo-jong, who is a powerful figure in the political landscape of mysterious North Korea, could tell him he should do some dieting. She appears in one of the pictures just next to him. That shows her importance and influence, I would dare to say.

In any case, Kim Yo-jong, who is a young person – age 32 years –, is now being studied and followed by several special people in the West. She might have a future in tomorrow’s North Korea. The country remains a family business.

My take on the US-China trade deal

The trade deal the US and China signed today is above all a pause in their trade dispute. That’s what makes it relevant. At a time when the trend has been to aggravate the commercial competition and the political rivalry between both giants, a lull is important. It is also an opportunity for both sides to implement some corrections and try a more constructive and balanced approach.

Therefore, I see the event with a positive eye. But I am also very much aware, like many observers, that there is deep antagonism and absolute mistrust on both sides of the deal. The Chinese do not think President Trump is constant in his political line. They are very much convinced that he can change his mind a thousand times. But for now, they bet on this deal. On the American side, they still believe the Chinese are very much determined to overtake the US economy and that they will do whatever it takes to achieve it. However, for the US leaders the deal comes at the right time. Actually, they have the advantage of controlling the agenda, a fact that is always good.

We have a little deal, that’s not bad, but we have not moved much when it comes to cooperation and trust building. In any case, a step forward is a step in the right direction. And that’s what matters.

China's Day

The new China is much younger than Communist China. The one celebrating today, with an extraordinary show of military power and a strong emphasis on patriotism and loyalty to everything Chinese, and above all, to the authorities, was the older one. 70 years is a long time in the life of a regime. At that age, the big question is about the future: what kind of country will be there ten or twenty years down the line?

Japan and South Korea

A couple of friends are not paying attention to the growing tension between Japan and South Korea. I am telling them this is a serious development. And that we must be talking about the matter with a louder voice.

 I know this is August, but there is no holiday taking place in that very sensitive part of the world. Japan does not like the way South Korea is approaching the North. They are also worried about South Korea’s policy towards China. However, above all, there are two major factors that make the mixture particularly complex: hard nose trade competition, as perceived by Tokyo, and old anti-Japanese sentiments that permeate throughout the Korean nation. 

All that are dangerous crisis factors. They would call for wise efforts from both sides. Unfortunately, we are far from that, at the present stage.  

  

Hong Kong and the fire wall

The people of Hong Kong are very brave. In addition, they might be giving some sleepless nights to President Xi and the leadership circle in Beijing. Xi Jinping and his inner group are probably asking themselves if this type of mass movement could one day happen in any of the big cities of Mainland China.

We might think that is a very remote possibility. That mass demonstrations will not occur in the Mainland. That the Communist leaders will keep strengthening the police and security controls, as they have been doing. They will also black out all the information regarding the protests in Hong Kong, as they did today and in the last few days.

But one never knows. There are many giant cities in China and lots of people are now travelling abroad and seeing other realities. Including many young Chinese professionals, who have studied abroad or are still studying in Japan, Thailand, Australia, Europe, Canada and the US.

Beijing might say all this unrest is caused by foreign powers. But they know that is not the case. I trust the leaders do not believe in their own discredited propaganda. They are very much aware that things are changing rapidly all over the world and that no fire wall can keep the human aspiration for freedom on just one side of the barrier. Sooner or later, they are afraid, the opening of the wall will happen.

Kim's vital agenda

You meet, negotiate and believe in Kim Jong-un at your own risk. And that’s a very high level of risk, I should add. Nevertheless, it must be done, and surely, with no illusion about the person who is sitting on the other side of the table.

Kim’s ultimate objective is to remain in power. He has no other option, if one considers the criminal and violent actions that he has behind him. Power means impunity. Absolute power means total impunity. In such circumstances, he is determined to decisively tackle anything that might challenge his goal.

I think he believes that the vital threat to his continued control of the North Korean system comes from the other side of the border, from South Korea. Not because of South Korea’s military might, no. It is because of the economic success and the type of society that South Korea represents. That, sooner or later, will end up by having a major impact on the attitude of the population in the North. It has the potential to be the key source of instability.  

Therefore, he wants to keep some kind of superiority vis-à-vis the South. And the only one he can bet on is on the military side. But for that, he must get the Americans out of South Korea. That’s what he is trying to achieve.

At the same time, he is also looking for an end to the economic sanctions. He knows that the sanctions bite. They make the comparison between the standards of living in the North and the South even more dangerous.

These are two elements that must remain at the centre of any future round of negotiations. And please, no illusions, no unnecessary warmth. 

Hanoi or Venezuela: better, Hanoi!

For the US leadership, all the attention must be focused on the Hanoi summit. The meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim is the week’s highlight. It must be seen and reported as excellent. Venezuela cannot be a distraction. There will be some diplomatic tightening, some additional isolation of Nicolas Maduro, a couple or so of rambunctious statements and sound bites, but nothing else. Nothing that could steal the headlines from Donald Trump in Hanoi.

Unless the Hanoi meeting goes wrong. It’s not expected, it has been prepared with great attention to sound good. But we never know. It could derail. Then, the usual suspects will be looking for a distraction, for other news that could grab the world’s attention. And that kind of news could be some foolish action regarding the situation in Venezuela.

Kim Jong-un must be cordoned off

What does Kim Jong-un want? What is his end-game? Or, even a smaller question, what are the next provocations he is prepared to launch?

There is no simple answer to these very fundamental questions. We are caught in a dark room and have no sense of purpose.

The only certainty is that the man is a rogue leader. He completely is out of the accepted norms. He has no respect for some of the most basic principles that govern the relations among states.

In view of that, each major country has to ask itself a very straight question: what can we do to stop this extremely dangerous course of action, this criminal behaviour?

And the right answer is to isolate the man and his regime. They must be treated as pariah politicians. And that should be said loud and clear, including by the Chinese and the Russians. Ambiguity coming from Beijing and Moscow is not at all helpful.

There is no need for any additional show of force. The rogues know that such force is available and formidable. They also know that they would be reduced to pieces if they decided to take the initiative to carry an aggression against any other state. 

But there is a need to gather as much means of prevention as possible. Including the most sophisticated military means. 

Kim Jong-un, a dangerous provocateur

Kim Jong-un is above all a provocateur. But a dangerous one, let's be clear. His repeated provocations have created a very delicate situation in his part of the world. And that's a complex region, at it's at the centre of fundamental geopolitical and strategic interests of very powerful countries.

In my opinion, he is not reading the current international situation with smart eyes. Political circumstances have deeply changed. As the intelligence about his most strategic means of power and military capabilities has also changed.

He still believes that China will shield him from any military action coming from outside. In addition, he is convinced that his threats of retaliation against South Korea will discourage others from intervening in the North. He might have a point. However, I am no longer sure that such point is strong enough. 

Let the intelligence people do their work

The most dangerous mistake regarding North Korea could result from erroneous intelligence. It´s a real possibility. I know from a number of examples that intelligence agencies, even the best resourced and the most experienced ones, tend to make mistakes on critical matters. That´s particularly the case when they are under serious political pressure, as it is the case.

If the relevant intelligence people come to the conclusion that the North is about to launch some kind of nuclear or other threatening device, our side might then decide that the time for pre-emptive action is upon us. In these matters, decisions are taken fast.

Once they have been taken, it might be too late to contain and mitigate their multiple consequences.

Therefore, the first point in such a delicate situation as the current one is to make sure the intelligence work is carried out as professionally as possible, outside any type of political compulsion. Secondly, it is essential to fully consider the regional leaders ´opinion. Particularly, the South Korean ones, who are at present at the end of a decisive presidential campaign for an election scheduled for May 9. This is their region and in the world of today, their views are of paramount importance. 

Talking about North Korea

The North Korean problem is very much linked to Kim´s power base. Therefore, its solution passes above all through a package of actions that can undermine the dictator's personal standing. Among other measures, which also include ridiculing the man, the diplomatic and economic ones are the most impactful. That means a very high degree of diplomatic isolation of the regime and the intensification of the economic and financial sanctions.

The question cannot be resolved through bombs and bombastic declarations. Such an approach would be used by Kim Jong-Un to his own advantage. External military action against the regime will allow him to further entrench himself in power.   

Taiwan´s elections and post-electoral realism

The people of Taiwan voted heavily for the opposition, both in terms of the presidential and legislative elections. Opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has been elected as Taiwan’s next president. She will be the first woman to lead the country.

In the past, Ms. Tsai was the leading Taiwanese negotiator with China. Therefore she knows how important is to keep the line open with Beijing, even if the majority of her support comes from those who would like to see Taiwan become an independent country. It is a fine balancing act that is required from her but political realism leaves no other option for Taiwan. Anything else would further complicate the tense situation that is already a key feature of the geopolitical situation in East Asia. 

In Macau

I have been in Macau for a few days. And the more I know about this Special Administrative Region the more I appreciate its dynamism and charm.

Macau´s total area is certainly small but its business districts are pretty diverse and worth the walk. I also found a number of new “avant-garde” boutiques, including some with very creative pieces of art on display. They tell us that Macau is more than just a good number of extravagantly huge casinos.

Moreover, the University institutions are now very well established. They do attract quite a number of students from Mainland and beyond. 

Chinese politics of intimidation

The aim of the huge military parade the government of China will put on display tomorrow in Beijing, as they celebrate the 70^th anniversary of Victory Day against the Japanese, is obviously related to a policy of intimidation. 

But the ones the Chinese authorities try to intimidate are not based in Japan, not even in the neighbouring countries. To the neighbouring countries, Beijing´s message is clear: our military capabilities are growing by the day and modernising by the hour. It´s an arms race and the Chinese want it to be clear that they have the means and the knowledge to win the run.

Regarding the intimidation, the target is the Chinese people itself. Their government wants them to understand that the armed forces are a powerful instrument of power. It was used in 1989, at Tiananmen Square. And can be used again, now in a much more efficient manner. That´s the message. 

Civil obedience remains the key issue in such a vast country. The leaders are today, as their predecessors were, deeply afraid of any possible loss of political control.

Japan at the head of the G7

Japan will take over the leadership of the G7. That´s bad news for China, I presume. The tensions at sea in their part of the world will certainly gain a new emphasis during the next 12 months. And China will play the role of the villain. Several other players will appreciate it.

Europe in the Far East: a weekly review

My weekly commentary on Radio Macau, aired every Tuesday under the title of Magazine Europa, focused today on three topics: Greece and its immediate, and most pressing financial challenges; mass illegal immigration into the EU across the Mediterranean Sea routes; and educational success in East Asian countries and the lessons Europe´s education systems could draw from that part of the world. 

The topics show the image – and concerns – Europe projected during the last week in Macau and vicinity.