Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

Greece´s poker game

The Greek government is playing hard ball. They are convinced, I guess, that in the end the EU creditors will do whatever it takes to keep Greece within the Eurozone. And their poker hand is based on that assumption.

It´s a risky position. Athens might know more than we know about the concessions the other Europeans could possibly be ready to accept. But I am not sure they know. They just take the chance and hope to be right, that´s what I believe.

At this stage it is difficult to forecast the events of next week or so. We are certainly close to a clarification. And that moment of truth might be a difficult one for the Greek people. 

Greece has to move fast and show results

The Greek government has lost the last month trying to convince the European leaders to accept the merits of its approach to crisis management. In the current situation, a month is a long period of time for the Greeks. It is even longer when you achieve very little. It is hell, when you have empty pockets.

They should have listened to the advice coming from the key EU capitals: no programme implementation, no money. Such advice was repeated in Brussels last night, when a side mini-summit brought together the Greek prime minister, Angela Merkel, François Hollande and a couple of other senior people, Greece was once more invited to cooperate with the rest of the UE. Money was promised. It should be released when the Greeks start moving along the reform path.

Listening today to the Greek Prime Minister I got the impression he has not yet realised that time is running out. Money is getting very thin in the government´s drawers. And the political support they had in Europe is evaporating fast. It would be better for his government and his people to show they can implement the agreed reforms. The sooner they do it the better for them and for Europe´s cohesiveness. 

Spain´s Podemos is on the streets

The emblematic square Puerta del Sol in Madrid was full of people this afternoon. They came as part of the new popular political movement Podemos (We Can). It was their first big rally in preparation for the general elections that will take place this fall. And by the size and enthusiasm of the crowd – the best estimates mention 150,000 people – I think we can expect a very interesting electoral year in Spain.

But it is also clear that their future is very much linked to the destiny of the new government in Greece. If Syriza keeps its momentum and achieves a good deal of its promises, than we can expect Podemos to be the big winner of the Spanish elections. The connection is clear. Even if Podemos appears to be less confrontational than its sister party in Greece. 

Greece´s very delicate position

Greece´s future is at play. One should be very clear about it. The new leadership will have to be very strategic in their negotiations with the key European actors. These actors have time and money and are in no rush to achieve an agreement. And they do not want to take any measure or agree on anything that might be perceived as a precedent, as a Pandora box.

The same cannot be said of the Greek side. They have little time and little money. They cannot engage in a very long process. Results will have to be achieved soon. And that puts them in a much weaker position. It is, in many ways, an almost impossible position. 

Syriza´s victory opens an interesting time in the EU

Syriza has won a clear victory. Greece´s choice is clear. But Greece is not alone in Europe of today. They will have to negotiate with the other partners within the Union. It´s going to be, I believe, a very interesting negotiation. It will say quite a bit about the future of the EU. 

Greece´s anxiety

The Greek general elections will be held in a week. But the matter seems to have disappeared from the European news. Or, it will be an important event. The outcome of the elections might have a serious impact on the European agenda and be at the centre of the policy dialogue for a few months.

Syriza, the left wing party that is against the current austerity programme, is very much ahead in the most recent polls. It might not have enough votes to put together a government after the elections. But it will come out of the elections with a much stronger voice.

All this will lead at least to political instability in Greece. The country needs just the opposite: stability, to be able to attract new loans and new investments. And also to stop the ongoing social mistrust and fear. Because of the reigning atmosphere, many Greeks are taking their money out of the banks and keeping it under the mattress. The banking system is under serious stress as a result. And we can expect more anxiety as days go on. 

Greece at the margins of Europe

Greece is again in the news. But this time, it´s no longer a headline. It is still front page news, of course. But barely, at the bottom of the front page. However, for some papers, like Le Monde, is not even there, but lost in some less prominent corner of the newspaper.

Also, Greece is no longer very big news for the markets. Besides the Greek stock exchange and the Portuguese one as well, because Portugal´s bourse is very fragile and very sensitive to bad news coming from countries that could be considered comparable, all the other financial indexes have shown indifference to the developments in Athens

.

Basically, the signs are very clear: the Greek politics are essentially a domestic matter. The voters will decide and will leave with the consequences of their decision. There is also the conviction that Syriza, the extreme left coalition, will not be able to put together enough votes to form a government. That might lead to a long period of impasse, with the country being administered by a caretaker government. Again, that seems to leave many in Europe indifferent.

Geopolitics and crisis management have placed Greece back at the periphery of Europe. This will bring some changes, for sure.