Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.

Portugal: are we moving to the far left?

The Portuguese voted on 4 October for a new parliament. No party got a majority vote. There is a need for a coalition government to ensure stability. And the movement seems to be in the direction of a left of the left alliance, under the leadership of the Socialist Party. If it happens, it will be the first of its kind since 1975. And it would be a major shift in the national politics of the country. 

I don´t get it but I admire your ideas

Noam Chomsky, the old contrarian linguist and philosopher whose main ideas are about attacking every dimension of the US foreign policy – Chomsky is a US citizen, by the way -, is an idol of every self-respecting leftist intellectual in some parts of Europe. A few days ago he came to Lisbon to deliver a conference about the role of social sciences in today´s world. The auditorium was packed and some people had to follow the talk from an adjacent amphitheatre. The applause at the end of Chomsky´s long presentation was intense. Then, media people talked to the attendees, to get their impressions about the ideas they just heard. Many just confessed they had not understood Chomsky´s arguments. But they were amazed by the philosopher´s depth, knowledge and courage.

And I thought of that movie where the comedian Roberto Benigni said they were famous just because they were famous. No other reason was needed, no other explanation could be found. In this case, Chomsky for the Portuguese leftists is just great because they don´t understand what he is saying but he is against the establishment. That´s a reason good enough.

Spain´s Podemos is on the streets

The emblematic square Puerta del Sol in Madrid was full of people this afternoon. They came as part of the new popular political movement Podemos (We Can). It was their first big rally in preparation for the general elections that will take place this fall. And by the size and enthusiasm of the crowd – the best estimates mention 150,000 people – I think we can expect a very interesting electoral year in Spain.

But it is also clear that their future is very much linked to the destiny of the new government in Greece. If Syriza keeps its momentum and achieves a good deal of its promises, than we can expect Podemos to be the big winner of the Spanish elections. The connection is clear. Even if Podemos appears to be less confrontational than its sister party in Greece.