The Russians and Merkel

On Cyprus, again... The main concern of all parties – EU and Nicosia – seems to be about face saving. Any solution will now be massaged to look good for both parties. But there is still the Russian unknown. And Berlin gets mad every time the Kremlin is mentioned as a potential partner, as a possible contributor to the solution.

The saga needs to be followed with great attention. It is a turning point in European affairs. 

Time for serious repair work

The Cypriot Parliament has now voted against the foolish financial package that the EU leaders were trying to impose on them. Instead of a sleepless night the bosses of Europe should think about reaching out towards Russia and getting the Kremlin to cost-share the rescue of Cyprus’ banking system. This would be a strategic move. It would build a concrete bridge between the EU and Russia, at a time when many years of empty grand rhetoric have achieved nothing in terms of a real partnership between the two sides. It would also contribute to stabilize the markets which have been seriously affected by Brussels’ decision and will be further destabilized by tonight’s impasse, after the parliamentary vote.

All this requires vision, courage and humility. These are exactly the commodities that have become rare in the EU corridors of power. 

The cluster bomb

The EU decision on Cyprus has had the same effect as a cluster bomb. It has hurt the little credit and confidence that the European citizens still placed on the Union’s leaders. It has hurt Germany’s relations with the South of Europe a lot more. It has hurt further the trust on the banking system. It destroyed value in the all the stock markets. It undermined potential capital investments in Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy. And it has shown, now that there seems to be some backtracking, that the EU takes critical decisions without looking at all the dimensions and implications of the matters under review. And so on.

A very effective cluster idiocy indeed.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s name will remain associated to this inept decision. Besides being the Finance Minister of the Netherlands, he is the President of the Eurogroup, the platform that brings together the EU Finance Ministers. Dijsselbloem took over from Jean-Claude Juncker in January 2013. Juncker, notwithstanding the fact that he comes from a very small country –Luxembourg – managed to demonstrate a strong sense of independence and objectivity. He was his own man and also a firm believer in the common project. The new fellow seems to be biased towards Northern European positions, very close to Angela Merkel’s views and be inspired by a moralistic approach to the issue of public deficits. He believes that the citizens in the crisis countries should be punished for the many years of incautious spending. This is exactly the kind of approach that can make the on-going EU cohesion crisis much worse. 

European idiots

The EU shot itself on the foot once more. The decision it imposed on Cyprus as a condition to approve a package of financial aid is indeed a very serious mistake. It sends a very unequivocal message to everyone: if you put money in a saving account or even invest in a European country that is facing serious economic difficulties you are a fool.

Nobody wants to be taken for an idiot.

Therefore, in the near future we will see a lot of money and potential investments running away from countries such as Portugal, Spain, even Italy, not to mention Cyprus, of course.

The only good thing about being a European idiot is that you might become a government leader in one of the EU countries. You will join the club. 

Hard look and soft minds

I am on the road to discuss the internal security systems and architecture in Portugal and compare the Portuguese response to the French, Spanish, Belgian and Austrian.

Today I listen to the French and could only conclude that their police system is too complex, has too many institutional players and would require a serious performance assessment. But I could also realise that the authorities are not ready to accept a serious review of their security architecture.

Leading by inertia

We are again close another EU summit meeting. They call it a EU Council. But for many observers it looks like one more act in a play called Procrastination...

Snow is not good for national security

In Brussels this afternoon there was a bit of snow again. Just enough powder to make a mess out of the road traffic. People become over cautious and drive at snail pace. That does not prevent many accidents from happening. But it makes moving around a nightmare. My daughter was driving into Brussels from the Mons area, 80 km away, after a long day of work, and it took her close to three hours to reach home.

The impact of all this on me: I spent more time doing baby-sitting-cum-dog-sitting than preparing for my forthcoming seminar on national security in the EU countries. And then I came to the conclusion that a few flakes of snow are a serious threat for the development of national security matters…

Let the Nigerians do the job

The Islamist group called "Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa", also known as Ansaru, is a terrorist organisation aligned with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). It operates in the Northern part of Nigeria, as a dissident fraction of the better known network of terrorists Boko Haram. They have specialised in the kidnapping of Western nationals working in the country.

Yesterday they executed seven hostages that they had taken recently. The circumstances of these killings remain unclear. But I suspect that the Ansaru men might have felt threatened by an impending military operation against them, most likely involving some form of cooperation between the armed forces of Nigeria and a Western secret service.  If that was the case it would mean that someone in the know might have warned the terrorists. A Western “muscled presence” in those corners of the country is very conspicuous.

Lessons need to be drawn then. Northern Nigeria is not a safe place, neither for white civilians nor for Western services. When it comes to hostages, the job should be done by the Nigerian Special Forces and intelligence officers. They can go far and wide, if the political green light comes from Abuja. 

On a Saturday evening...

I left my home country almost 35 years ago. Since then, I have lived in about 10 different countries, for professional reasons.

Every time I changed I felt like someone initiating a new life opportunity. It was, in many ways, a feat of magic that kept me alert and open-minded. It also helped me to appreciate the many challenges people face in many corners of the world. And allowed me to compare situations and give them their relative weight. But it also taught me that the only good answer to a major challenge is enlightened resoluteness. 

Women's rights

On this International Women’s Day one should recall that the percentage of women in leadership positions is still very low, even in most of the European countries. Company boards, police and defence top echelons, media and many other senior jobs continue to be male dominated. But nowhere that is truer than in the political sphere. Most of political parties give little space to women leaders. That’s why I am a strong advocate of the quota system, imposing an acceptable minimum level of women to occupy effective decision-making positions.

Interestingly, many political leaders who like to see themselves as examples of progressive politics oppose the quota system. They cannot understand that the change has many avenues and one of them is through legal means. They also fail to grasp that true equality requires a much stronger participation of women in active politics. Without proper representation women will never be able to fully fight for their rights and for the right policies.