Looking for a stronger European leadership

A more vibrant European spring

Victor Angelo

 

The next six to eight weeks, including the Easter period, could be a period of great tension in the European Union (EU). We are entering spring. This is the time when life sprouts again. People, like plant shoots, want to go outside and catch the new sun. They become impatient and find it hard to accept that their movements are controlled by a policeman on every street corner.

European leaders, including the Commission, continue to project an image of inconsistency in the face of the calamity we have been facing for a year now. The disaffection is general, although, as last week's meeting showed, members of the European Council try to disguise their disappointment and keep the discussion within the bounds of good manners. There is no direct criticism, but several national leaders are looking for alternatives, outside the common framework. Viktor Orbán, as usual, was the first out of the picture. This week he made himself publicly vaccinated with Chinese Sinopharm and approved the purchase of Russian Sputnik V. All this in defiance of what was decided in Brussels. The path he opened is being followed by the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland, which also want the Russian vaccine or those produced in China.

The conclusion is simple. The lack of speed of the vaccination campaign is currently the most important political problem in Europe. Without widespread immunity, the rest –  family life, the economy, culture, sport, travel, social activities – will remain moribund. In statements she made this week, Von der Leyen seems to have finally understood the importance of a fast, effective and well-explained campaign. But it is not enough. Confusion, bureaucracy, shuffling with pharmaceuticals and geopolitical biases continue to hold everything up. And there is no one to provide the leadership that is needed. The current Presidency of the European Council has been distracted by other things, as if we were in normal times and there was no absolute priority. Portugal needs to correct its shot.

At Member State level, in addition to the prevailing disorientation, we can see that the policies adopted are the traditional ones - confining, closing everything and creating barriers at the borders. And now the fracture is accentuated by the bilateral pacts that are in the pipeline between Austria and Denmark with Israel, a country that will try to exploit to the maximum the political dividends of these agreements.

These are case-by-case responses that call the joint effort into question.

In France, Emmanuel Macron no longer has time for European issues. He is caught up in a complex political situation, made worse by the proximity of the 2022 presidential elections. The polls, with Marine Le Pen on the rise, do not leave him in peace. Not to mention that Michel Barnier could enter the fray, thus emerging as a further obstacle to the re-election of the current president. 

In Germany, where the economy and public opinion are more resilient to the crisis, there is no great enthusiasm for European affairs. The central issue is the succession of Angela Merkel in a few months' time. And then there is the decision to put the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party under police surveillance. 

In Italy, Mario Draghi's arrival in power is good for Europe. He is a convinced and courageous European. But he must focus above all on the delicate economic and social situation his country finds itself in. And on keeping his fragile coalition together.

The rest of the EU carries little weight in defining the future line. So, it is essential to have strong EU leadership in Brussels. That is one of the lessons to be learned from the present mess - we need solid leaders in the core countries of the Union and top politicians in the European institutions. The practice of sending second-rate personalities to Brussels will not do. In the current crisis and given the scale of the challenges of the coming years, we need to think about a thorough overhaul of the present Commission and a strengthening of its powers. Something difficult, but which must be tackled without delay and with the necessary sensitivity.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

  

 

Hoping we will be sage and visionary

I can only hope that May will be a good transition month. I believe it can be if everyone in leadership positions understands that consultations and coordination between nations that have a similar destiny are crucial. Within the European Union, we need a renewed momentum, a stronger role coming from Brussels, and more discussions between key national leaders. There is no recovery if it is not done jointly.

EU leaders walking through a minefield

Donald Trump´s presidency remains the main subject of conversation among the EU politicians. They are still figuring out how to deal with the new American leader.

At this stage the prevailing approach is basically about keeping a courteous distance from the man. Beyond the surprise, they don´t like what they see, that´s obvious. But the Europeans know that it is important not to antagonize Trump. However, more importantly yet, the EU leaders are very much aware that large segments of the European public opinion do not appreciate the new White House man at all. Actually, to be clear, those citizens consider that Trump´s values do not match the democratic practice the West has put in place during the last decades. They see Trump both as an extremely negative, destructive political actor and as a serious menace to the international order.

The EU leaders cannot ignore the views of their citizens. They are therefore walking a minefield. They know they have to be very careful. 

Happy New Year and bring confidence back

As we start the New Year, we also realise that one the great challenges ahead, as far as the European leaders are concerned, is to regain their credibility. They have to take into account that public opinion is a strategic variable in matters of politics. And they have to endeavour to get the voters ‘confidence back. That should be the main topic of discussion in the political circles as we get into the first working week of 2016.

In the meantime, and just as an example, let me refer that Le Figaro´s edition of today organised a poll on President Hollande´s New Year Message. The daily newspaper got close to 46 thousand responses to the question. 92% of the readers said the message was not convincing. That´s an incredible negative reaction. It´s true that most of those who read Le Figaro are rather on the opposite side of Hollande´s politics. But still, such a percentage is just too revealing: political confidence is one way avenue. Once lost, it is almost impossible to recover.

Just to complement, on this same day another survey has shown that 3 out of every 4 French citizens do not wish either Hollande or Sarkozy to run for the presidency in 2017.

2016 is indeed a very promising year on the leadership side of politics.

Germany is the power in the EU machinery

In all institutions it is important to analyse who are the power brokers, the people of real influence, or said differently, the ones that are at the centre of the most critical decisions and decisively influence the formal leaders ‘choices. In the case of the EU in Brussels, out of the five true powerful men –all five are men – three are German nationals. Guess who?

Poor leadership

In the last days, in different meetings, I was told twice by senior officers and seasoned civil servants that the current crop of Western leaders do not listen to advice. They tend to have pre-conceived responses to key issues and therefore opt for directing their subordinates, without listening their views, without taking into account their experience. This creates a lot of frustration in the senior levels of the public service. It is also a contributing factor to the poor commitment we find in many civil administrations. 

Naïve Merkel

Again, as I listen to Angela Merkel and her reactions to the spying the US practices all over the world, I get a bit nervous. How could she be so naïve and believe the US would not seek to spy on her? This is a matter of great concern if we take into account that her naïveté is combined with an immense political power. Easy to fool leaders are in charge and one can only feel very uncomfortable that is the case. If she cannot see the threats coming from the friends, how can she deal with the danger coming from the enemies? 

France and the serial blunder

The French have found a new punching bag: it is called Barroso. They are all out against him. They have looked at old closets and found a number of blunders he is credited with. This is a way of making sure people understand that the man is serial disaster.

It is much easier when the blame can be placed elsewhere. Incompetent people just love that! And when the blame is put on a foreigner it’s even better!

Poor France, some would say!

EU needs to change coaches

A man that knows the EU well told me this evening that the high rates of unemployment are turning people against the European project. The first line of attack is against the Euro currency, he added. More and more people are looking at the common currency as an impediment for “their” nation’s recovery.  He also told me that there is serious concern in the leading circles of the EU as they see public opinion turning gradually against the Euro in a number of countries.

I told him if the common project were a football team the solution would be very clear: let’s fire the coach and get a new one. 

Leading by inertia

We are again close another EU summit meeting. They call it a EU Council. But for many observers it looks like one more act in a play called Procrastination...

Leadership, play, mysticism...and keep smiling!

As I perused my old personal notes about leadership, I came across one written almost fifteen years ago that says that there is bit of “ theatre” – representation – included in the practice of leadership. And just after that line, the following reads that there also a touch of mysticism in a leader. 

I would add that a good leader has also a good sense of humour.

Then I looked at some of the men that are in charge of Europe today – Angela Merkel is a different ball game – and couldn't find the actor ( with the exception of Berlusconi, of course, but he has no mysticism, all in him is fake and paid for, you can ask Ruby) and also couldn't think of anyone who inspires people.

An example is poor François. He is not comfortable in his role, as if he were the wrong cast for the job of President, and he can’t fire the flame that the European left had hoped he would. But at least, he seems sincere.

Can we say the same about many others?