The Shael without Idriss Déby

New uncertainties next door in the Greater Sahel

Victor Angelo

 

In 1990, the Chadian rebel leader Idriss Déby returned to the country from Sudan. He led a column of armed men, composed mainly of fighters from his home region.  Days later he seized power in Ndjamena, with the approval of François Mitterrand. The French president knew his geopolitics. He saw Chad as the essential node for the interests, influence and security of France and its client states in that part of Africa. Therefore, it was essential that it be controlled by a strong man, consistent and friendly to France. Déby had this profile. And successive French presidents got used to turning a blind eye to systematic human rights violations, high-scale corruption, and the tribalization of power, so as not to weaken their ally in Ndjamena.

The support became even more solid when Déby decided that his troops would be, on the African side, the strong arm in the fight against the different jihadist groups that terrorize the populations of the Sahel. His military became by far the best prepared in the region. Even against Boko Haram, Chad's capability is far superior to Nigeria's. The UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA) has a considerable Chadian presence - 1400 troops, with a more offensive posture than most other blue helmets. In addition, Déby had just sent an additional 1200-man brigade, as part of the regional military cooperation known as G5 Sahel, to the three-border area especially targeted by terrorists - the triangle where Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso converge.

The military institutions of the countries in the region are structurally weak and kept that way by politicians, who are more afraid of possible coups than of terrorists. Of all the neighbours, only Déby, trained as an officer in France and hardened in the desert campaigns, was a true war chief. His combativeness was legendary. In 2008, a rebel faction arrived at the gates of his palace. Nicolas Sarkozy proposed that he be exfiltrated into a golden exile. Déby and other loyalists, some of them now members of the Transitional Military Council, refused, preferring to fight to the end. And they eventually defeated the assailants. Shortly afterwards, as the UN Special Representative, I discussed this crisis with Déby. I recall three points from that meeting. First, the recognition that his troops were neither organized nor equipped effectively. Second, the decision to spend a good deal of oil money on transforming his fighters into professional soldiers. Third, the decision to seek an understanding with Omar al-Bashir's Sudan, as he had already done with Gaddafi's Libya, so that neighbouring territories would not be used as bases for launching rebellions. And so it was. By late 2009, the difference was already clear. Since then, these capabilities have been consolidated. France, the United States, and other Westerners began to see Chad as the spearhead against terrorism and religious extremism. Criticism of dictatorship and nepotism have been put in the freezer.

But in these lands of instability, life takes many turns. Déby closed his cycle this week, perhaps in a similar way to the one he did thirty years ago. Only this time the rebel column was from the tribe next door, it came from Libya, and the president fell on the front line. Chad, Central Africa, the Sahel, France, and the Europeans present in the region became more fragile.

Several questions arise from the disappearance of Idriss Déby. What motivated President Macron to leave him without his usual support, when in 2019 he had sent fighters to quell a similar rebellion? Miscalculation? Who is behind this new rebellion, known as FACT (Front for Change and Concord in Chad)? What impact will the new reality have on the conflict in the Central African Republic? What to expect from the G5 Sahel and the fight against terrorism in this part of Africa? Each of these questions hides many uncertainties and concerns. The future of the poor people of Chad is the greatest of them.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

Christmas in the Sahel

How about lunch in the Sahel?

Victor Angelo

 

A few years ago, my wife and I were invited to an unusual Christmas lunch. The invitation came from the Chad presidency and the repast site was about a hundred kilometres north of Fada, a town more than two hours' flight from Ndjamena, already in the area of transition from the Sahel to the Sahara. The plan was to fly to Fada and follow by land to one of the oases of the Mourdi Depression - a set of deep valleys with several lagoons, much in demand by the traders of the numerous camel herds in transit to Libya, where each camel ends up by being sold at meat markets.

We went there. The journey between Fada and the oasis took place in the middle of twenty-something jeeps of a company of elite troops with operational experience of the region. The open-backed pickup trucks - the famous "technicals" - advanced at high speed, in parallel, on a unique front of several hundred meters. The aim was to avoid the dust and the ambushes of lawless groups that were already wandering in those parts of the Sahel.

The set menu was sheep, stuffed with chicken and couscous, roasted in a hole dug in the sand. The animal, well-done, cleaned of ashes and sand, was placed in front of us, whole, from head to feet, staring at us, so that we, the guests, could begin the feast. The protocol was clear. No one would touch any piece of food before we had finished ours. My wife and I looked at each other, and we did not know what to do. The head of the GOE (Portuguese Police Special Operations Group), who were in charge of my personal security, pulled out a pocket folding knife, cut two pieces and we started munching. Slowly, to show appreciation for the delicacy. Two hundred eyes followed our chewing closely. When we gave the signal that we had enough, the military threw themselves at the animal and the accompanying food. They cleaned everything in the blink of an eye.

In telling all this, my intention is not to invite the reader to a similar Christmas lunch. It is a question of taking advantage of the moment to talk about the Sahel, the hunger and food insecurity that define the daily lives of its people, and the violence that is taking place in these lands. It is also a tribute to those who have little more than their personal dignity, a quality that has always defined the way of being of the people of the Sahel. But that dignity is now often violated by those who have power, whether on the side of governments, armed robbers, or terrorists. The Sahel and the adjacent Sahara are experiencing a deep security crisis, which has worsened continuously since 2012, despite a strong European military presence in the region. 

The year now ending has been the most violent. Jihadists and other armed groups, including popular militias formed by the governments that the Europeans support, will have caused over 4,250 deaths and thousands of displaced people. The most dangerous area is the three borders region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. About half of the attacks were directed against civilian populations. In most cases, the violence, even that which wears a mantle of religious radicalism, has as its main objective to extort resources. Communities that make a living from artisanal gold mining or pastoralism, as well as those that run the trade corridors connecting the Sahel with the west coast of Africa, in Benin, Togo and Nigeria, are the most frequent targets. It is difficult to determine where looting ends and fanaticism, ethnic hatred or human rights violations begin. Terrorism is a label that defines a complex reality badly. But it is around. In 2020 we saw many confrontations between or perpetrated by two of the most important groups: the Islamic state in the Greater Sahel and the Al-Qaeda factions. And we are still hearing reports of war crimes committed by the armed forces of countries to which Europe gives military training.

The EU is preparing a new strategy for the region. It may be ready during the Portuguese presidency. To be valid, it must begin by questioning the reasons for the failure of the strategy that has been followed so far. My first indications are that it will be more of the same. It might then be a good idea to organise a lunch in a remote corner of the Sahel for some European leaders.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

They can't drink oil

      The collapse of the oil price has several major implications. It is an economic tsunami. For the oil-producing developing countries, in Africa and elsewhere, it means an extraordinary loss of revenue. That’s the case for Nigeria, Angola, Congo, South Sudan, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, and so on. It adds fuel to social instability in those countries. It brings, at least, a new level of poverty and hardship to their populations. For the developed countries, it carries serious capital losses for the pension funds and other sovereign funds that were heavily invested in oil corporations and all the other companies that deal with bits and pieces of the oil industry. For all of us, it discourages new investments in renewable sources of energy. The bottom rock oil price makes any renewable too expensive to contemplate at this stage. 

The oil consumption is at present very low, because of the lockdowns that are implemented all over. But also, because the United States has continued to pump vast amounts of oil. They are now the largest producer, with 12.3 million barrels per day. President Trump could have compelled the industry to reduce daily production. There was a recommendation to cut it by 2 million barrels per day. He decided not to act because he saw this branch of the economy as a key pillar of his political basis. There are 10 million oil and gas sector jobs in the US, plus many billionaires that inject money in the Republican camp.   Now, he is promising them billions of dollars in subsidies. Public money being wasted when the solution was to reduce exploitation. His political choice has a huge impact on the domestic taxpayers’ money and on the world economy. It is inexcusable.

They say that misfortunes never come alone. Indeed.

Africa´s security: a collective and national effort

The issues of national and people´s security remain a core problem for several African States. 

Boko Haram is the most visible example of a country´s weak security systems. Nigeria has large military and police forces and services. It has been one the most assiduous participant in UN peacekeeping operations. But when challenged by a domestic group of extremists and fanatics it became obvious that big numbers do not mean effectiveness. 

Nigeria and many other countries will have to reform the armed forces and ensure a better coordination between the military and the police services. The reform includes a greater emphasis on professionalism, discipline, good management of the resources and better links with the citizens.

 Better security is also related to a regional response. The cooperation within the framework of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities calls for an acceleration of the current efforts and a greater commitment to collective defence. 

Fighting Boko Haram

The Chibok girls were kidnapped by Boko Haram a year ago. And many other Nigerian girls and women have also been taken hostage by this terrorist group. Everyone condemns these actions. But we should go beyond that and ask loud and clear how can that happen in a country that has one of the largest and better African equipped armies. How is it possible that a terrorist group has been able to capture people and territory? And then, we need to raise another question: where did they get the weaponry from?

Chad and Niger have now been engaged in the fight against Boko Haram, side by side with the Nigerian Army. There have been reports of some serious setbacks for the terrorists. But as of late one gets the impression that the anti-Boko Haram coalition is no longer making any tangible headway. Why is it?

The missing people and the memory of all those who have been executed by the savages under the banner of Boko Haram call for an answer to all the questions. They also call for clarity about the situation. 

Nigeria´s electoral process is moving better than anticipated

So far, so good! That´s the happy comment one can make tonight regarding the presidential elections in Nigeria. The process might have had some flaws but for now both key candidates seem prepared to accept the outcome of the elections. Outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan has surprised us with his mature acceptance of defeat. He has congratulate his opponent, the yet-to-be-officially declared winner, general Buhari. This is a great move by someone that has been a messy president but, in the end, has shown great sense of duty and a strong commitment to a peaceful transition in Nigeria. 

Boko Haram requires a powerful and urgent response

At the very beginning of the year my magazine´s editor-in-chief at Visão asked me to write about Africa in 2015. I did. And I spent most of the allocated space focusing on Nigeria, as the country to watch this year. Within Nigeria, the key issue I mentioned was of course Boko Haram. I also said that Boko Haram would be spreading out towards the neighbouring countries. And that´s very much the case today. This terrorist group is not only a major threat to the stability of Nigeria, It is also a serious menace for Niger, Cameron and Chad. As such, it calls for a major international alliance to deal with it. The sooner the international community addresses this very serious problem the better. Nigeria can´t do it. And Chad alone, notwithstanding the strength of its armed forces, is not enough. 

AQMI and Boko Haram should be wiped out soonest

Besides other places, there is concern in Burkina Faso and Niger that Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, also known as AQMI, are trying to establish a logistics and safety corridor between them. The authorities in these countries think the threat is serious enough. It should not either be ignored or treated lightly.

I am not sure about the link between the two organizations. But I for sure think that fighting both of them is a matter of great urgency. They call for decisive action. They should be smashed. We have been too slow in responding to these terrorist groups. And when we hesitate they take it as a licence to expand and bring instability and death to new areas of influence.

Again, I think we have to mobilize a coalition of states, including some from outside the region, to fight these crazy and dangerous fellows. I would like to see more voices repeating this message. 

Chadian army ordered to fight Boko Haram

The good news is that the Chadian army has now been ordered to move into the Boko Haram area and fight the terrorists. The Chadians are by far the best army in the region. They certainly can achieve some results.

Now the point is to see if the Nigerian government is prepared to accept such deployment within its territory. I hope they will. And it should be possible because there is already a cooperation framework between Chad, Nigeria and Niger with the aim to fight terrorism around the Lake. But this is a time for elections in Nigeria and some politicians might think that the Chadian intervention might signal to the voters that the national authorities cannot do what the Chadians can. Let´s hope that will not be the official position in Abuja. 

Fighting Boko Haram is a priority

We should not lose sight of Boko Haram. They are a major threat to the populations of the region and to stability in Nigeria and the Lake Chad part of Africa. The government of Nigeria has no capacity to respond to the menace. We should be very clear about it. And engage the authorities in Abuja with an offer of international security assistance that makes sense and cannot be ignored. This has now become a matter of great urgency. Concerted multilateral action and the appropriate pressure on the national authorities of Nigeria should be made as soon as possible, even before the presidential elections of this coming February. Then, just after the elections – which by the way will be pretty messy –deployments should take place. The poor populations of remote North-eastern Nigeria need all help they can get. And this is not neo-colonialism. It´s solidarity and also the recognition that further destabilisation of Central Africa and the Sahel will have a negative impact well beyond the region. 

Getting closer to 2015

In my regular opinion piece for the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão, a text I wrote this afternoon, I share my view that 2015 will be a year of great uncertainty.  The geopolitical tensions are on the increase. This time they involve major players, such as Russia, China, Japan and the US. This is no small fry. Furthermore, the economic and financial variables are more and more unpredictable. The oil price and its impact on the international financial flows as well as on the stability of countries such as Venezuela, Russia, Angola and Nigeria, and the entire Middle East, the diminished availability of cash for stocks and bonds, the trade restrictions as a result of political confrontations, the unemployment rates and the low paid jobs because of automation, and the dwindling of the middle classes in Europe and elsewhere, all these dimensions will bring new variables into a very complex economic equation. If you put on top of that activities of the international crime syndicates, and the mass immigration of young people, you are adding fuel to the fire.

That´s why we have to make the coming year a time of deep reflection about the common future of mankind. It´s time to think about the big picture again. 

Rethinking peace operations

I spent the end of last week in Oslo at the invitation of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. The aim was to review their support to peace operations during the past years and to reflect about future assistance. Norway is a small country but a big player in areas of peace and conflict resolution, as well as a very committed supporter of bilateral approaches. They are particularly keen in strengthening the African Union´s peace machinery and also the UN´s.

But peace operations, as they are implemented by those two organisations, are under serious stress. The new types of menaces, the nature of conflict in many parts of the world, the challenges the West is facing in non-Western societies, are some of the key issues that call for a rethink of the deployments. The models followed up to now are no longer suited for the violence we meet today, be it in the Central African Republic, in Nigeria, in the North of Africa or in the Middle East.

The discussion is ongoing. But it can´t take long. The crises call for quick responses, early results and smart political processes. 

Nigeria: can we believe there is an agreement with Boko Haram?

Knowing as I know the players, I am afraid the announcement made by the Nigerian presidency regarding an accord with Boko Haram might just be wishful thinking, at best. But it can even be worse than that. It can just be a deceitful statement at a time the electoral fever is about to start.

The next few days will tell. 

Little minds

There are so many new headlines from Gaza to Ukraine, from the planes that crash here and there, and then the Summer recess, that we just forget that the Nigerian school girls have not yet been freed, after several months in the hands of Boko Haram, and the Central African Republic is still the murderous chaos it was a few weeks back. And that the elections in Afghanistan are yet to be sorted out, long after the polling day. Not to mention Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, and so on...

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: where are the root causes

At yesterday´s international meeting on Security in the Gulf of Guinea, convened by the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I built my intervention five security dimensions that are critical to understand the root causes of the challenges the region is facing.

They are:

          Widespread poverty, desperation, shrinking opportunities for survival –example, less fish available to the coastal communities – , advancing desertification, over-grazing and community conflicts, high cost of living; this is the livelihood dimension.

          Very high rate of population growth, domestic migrations, rapid urbanization, transfer of poverty to the cities, youth unemployment, marginalization and urban crime, armed gangs; the demographics dimension.

          Extremely weak State institutions in all sectors, including in the areas of national and domestic security; this is State ineffectiveness dimension.

          Governance and democratic deficits, human rights violations, widespread corruption and ineptitude, predatory elites; this is the governance dimension.

          Radicalisation and simplification of the political-religious discourse; the influence of radical preachers trained in and funded by Middle Eastern Countries; the identity and ethnicity as instruments of power and exclusion; this is the extremist dimension.

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

I have been asked to look at the security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea. There will be an international meeting on the subject in Lisbon on 11 July. States from the region, and partner nations from the EU and elsewhere, including Brazil and the US, are supposed to attend.

The meeting comes out of a growing concern about the security challenges facing Coastal West Africa, as the next expansion area of a crisis that has shaped the Sahel during the recent past. The sea lanes are along West Africa are vital for many interests, including the oil and fishing interests of European countries.

As I get deeper into the subject I come to old conclusions: poor governance in the region, extremely weak states, predatory elites, inadequate cooperation policies on the side of rich countries, widespread disrespect for human rights, all that play a role and seriously contribute to a complex situation that could easily get out of hand in the future. 

Our attention lost sight of the Boko Haram girls

Boko Haram is still very much alive and kicking. They keep attacking civilians in Northeast Nigeria and making sure everybody understands that the federal government is just composed of a bunch of inept political opportunists. The school girls are yet to be freed. And the international security teams that came to help are now realising that corruption within the armed forces of Nigeria is a major handicap. A few generals have now been accused of selling weapons to the armed extremists. But that´s not enough to turn things around. And the world has lost sight of the girls and the extremism and moved its attention elsewhere. 

The waters of West Africa

The security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea are a new opportunity to promote cooperation between the key African States of the region, including Nigeria and Angola. They are also being used to enhance the political relations between those countries and States from outside the region. Brazil is one of those States. The US, of course, is particularly interested. And within the EU, Portugal has been a front player in terms of advancing the partnership agenda between Europe and West Africa.

My advice is that the partnership has to deal with fisheries protection – which key for the economy of the coastal populations of the region – as much as it deals with piracy and freedom of navigation. This dual approach is the only sustainable way forward. Without fishing the livelihood possibilities in the region will shrink further. And the illegal activities will be seen by many young people as one of the very few doors to remain open. 

Boko Haram in Paris

Today´s summit on Boko Haram, convened at the Elysée Palace by President François Hollande, should be seen as a constructive initiative. 

The concrete results in terms of fighting the Nigerian terrorist group might be very tiny. But it had some other advantages.

 It kept the pressure on the President of Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan must take the issue with a greater degree of seriousness. 

It also showed that the countries in the region – particularly Cameroon and Chad – must be fully engaged and cooperate among themselves. This is lacking. Especially as it concerns Cameroon. North Cameroon – an area I know relatively well – is a forgotten region, when seen from the capital Yaoundé. This has to change. The Cameroonians have to increase their police and armed forces presence in the North. They have also to be prepared to cooperate with Nigeria and Chad. 

The summit has also emphasized that the problem requires international cooperation if it is to be tackled without further delay. France can certainly play a role on the French-speaking side of the region. The UK has to be more involved on the Nigerian side. And French and British intelligence services have to work hand in hand on the ground and be willing to treat the African counterparts as equals.

All this is a bit of an ambition. Not easy to achieve. But it has to be said. And the pressure has to go on.

We will see what progress will be reported as accomplished when the ministers meet for a follow-up conference next month in the UK. 

#BringBackOurGirls

The international campaign #BringBackOurGirls has had some impact on the Nigerian government. The President is finally moving. For about three weeks – and this bog has been one of the very first to call the attention to the terrible fate the school girls kidnapped by the Boko Haram terrorists were in – the country´s leadership tried to sweep the issue under the carpet. Now the outcry is too big to be ignored.

But a key question remains: how to explain the failure to protect these school children and the many civilians in the North-Eastern part of the country that are under constant threat? How can we understand this failure in a country that has a large army, good special forces and good intelligence? Who is giving a chance to Boko Haram to commit the horrendous crimes that are now their trademark? Who are the political backers of the terrorists and why?