The
NATO Summit in Warsaw, which is about to start, will endorse a major policy
shift. It will squarely move the organisation into an all-out deterrence mode.
And it will do it based on credible operational capabilities.
Russia
might be tempted to respond by accelerating the investments in the
modernisation of its armed forces. That´s the most obvious option for them. The
one that will satisfy the hard core nationalist part of the Russian public
opinion as well as the powerful military establishment.
But
I am also convinced that the Kremlin leadership will understand, sooner than
later, that re-opening the dialogue with the West is a much better -- and by
far, much more affordable -- option than betting on the arms race.
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