Today´s
straw poll in the Security Council should be seen as an important step towards
the election of the next UN Secretary-General. One should see several
candidates leaving the race in the very near future. Those with a good number
of “discourage” votes have very few motives to stay on. Some of those negative votes
might come from permanent members and that would mean no, later in the day.
In
the circumstances, Antonio Guterres seems to be a solid contender. He got 12
votes of encouragement and no vote advising him to go. That would make it less
tempting for new names to step in. It´s getting a bit late, after today´s
results. That´s the message those supporting Guterres´s candidacy should keep
stressing. They have to discourage others from joining the race.
But
he also needs to watch carefully two existing candidates: Danilo Turk, the
former President of Slovenia, and Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian that heads
UNESCO. She remains the woman that can make it. That is a good rallying point in
her favour. And Turk has some serious support within the Council.
But
both Turk and Bokova have adverse votes. And that might be too difficult for
them to overcome. That´s their major unknown at this stage.
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