Europe –Africa: From Indifference
to Interdependence[1]
Victor Angelo
Introduction
Examining the future of the relations between Europe (EU) and
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), I can foresee a clear trend of mutual growing indifference,
as if both regions were moving apart and becoming less interested in building a
privileged partnership.
The current generation of European leaders is no longer
emotionally connected with Africa. It is a depart from the attitudes of past
generations, who had kept a close interest in Africa, through colonial ties and
related business interests. The historical links appear now lost in the vague
memories of the past. Today, the empirical observation leads to the conclusion
that there is lack of understanding on the importance of co-operating with SSA.
This is especially evident at present with the leaders ‘attention focused on
the EU’s internal crisis, including its own new poor, the developments in the
immediate neighbourhood of North Africa and Middle East and the economic and
political threats China’s expansion poses.
In the current context of the international relations,
Africa is perceived by many European opinion-makers at best as a distant and
modest player, with little relevance to the future of Europe. For others, the
stereotype is clear: Africa spells poverty, uncertainty and conflict, and
undemocratic regimes. These views are not new, of course. What is new is the leverage
they seem to have gained on decision making.
If one observes the relationship from an African
perspective, one notices that recent studies and well publicised schools of
thought question the way the EU provides development assistance, as being donor
driven, arrogant and too conditional. Besides, some African political and
academic personalities have extensively criticised the role of aid, as creating
dependency, being ineffective and favouring the elites in the recipient
countries. In addition, several political leaders throughout the Continent have
decided to look towards China, India and other non-traditional partners of
Africa, such as Qatar and other Gulf States, and entice new economic investments
and different forms of development aid from those countries.
As a result, the following questions could be raised, from
the European perspective:
·
Is it in the strategic interest of Europe to
ignore the formidable challenges – high impact population dynamics, human
insecurity and poor governance – that Africa will face in next decades? And, looking at the other side of the question,
is it good strategy to disregard the huge potential Africa possesses?
·
What should be the priorities for a renewed
partnership between Europe and Africa? More specifically, how relevant are the
SSA’s demographic challenges in the shaping of a new development co-operation
agenda? The subsidiary question would be: What efforts must be made to regain
the political initiative in the EU in order to bring Africa back to the top of
the development agenda?
·
Who sets the agenda? Who speaks on behalf of the
African populations?
Key future African
challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing very fast. From less
than a billion today, SSA will be home to close to 2 billion people by 2050.
This rate of population growth is a major challenge with a tremendous,
multidimensional impact in the Continent and globally. By mid-century, there
will be in average two Africans out of nine human beings and almost three times
more Africans than Europeans.
The most immediate demographic challenge, that needs to be
addressed today, is how to help Africa to stabilise its overall population at
the level of two billion. If we do not act now, the population in SSA will
continue to grow beyond 2050, well above the level that could be considered as
sustainable. For that, the demographic transition, as technically defined by
the demographers, needs to be accelerated through expanded free access to
contraception and related health services, girls’ education and women’s political
empowerment. Currently less than 20% of
African women use modern contraceptive methods, whilst in Latin America and
Asia the prevalence rate is well over 60% in average. But evidence as shown
that access to family planning services and proactive population policies are
incomplete and lack effectiveness if they are not accompanied by widespread
campaigns to get girls to schools. Furthermore, for both issues – contraceptive
access and girl’s education - to get high on the national priorities, more
women need to occupy positions of political authority, as this type of
development agenda is only genuinely implemented if driven by women leaders. I
would hasten to add here that men’s adherence is critical for the demographic
transition and the adoption of modern family life, but the change only takes
place if women are truly empowered and in a position to fight for their rights.
The rapid population growth outpaces Africa’s capacity to
produce its own food. Food insecurity is widespread. SSA is the region of the
world with the highest rate of undernourishment: it is estimated that at least
30% of Africa’s population suffers from chronic hunger and malnutrition. As we
look into the coming decades, we can forecast more widespread food insecurity
that could be further aggravated by Africa’s lack of financial resources to pay
for imported food combined with greater scarcity of the international supply of
grains, as the consumption of cereals augments in other parts of the world,
including in China, India and the Arab world. The investment in agriculture –
including some kind of green revolution adapted to the region’s conditions and
consumption habits – is a priority. It has however to take into account that
there is water insecurity in some parts of the Continent, as there is also an
expansion of the arid lands and desertification. The agricultural revolution
will have to take all these factors into account and be based on seeds and
technologies that will have little water demands, short production cycles and
be pest resistant.
There will be in addition very serious competition for vital
natural resources, such as land, rangeland, water, firewood and other forest related
supplies, as well as minerals. In some cases, this competition will take
violent forms, including disputes between countries, in-country armed
rebellions, civil conflicts, and ethnic strife.
In other cases, it will open the door for undemocratic, corrupt
governments, which will try to remain in power by force and through favouring
their ethnic base’s access to scarce resources against the interests of the
rest of the population.
Urbanization is the other side of the population growth
coin. SSA’s cities will expand fast and chaotically. In the next decades many
more urban centres like today’s Lagos and Kinshasa will spread all over Africa.
These will be unmanageable, sprawling conurbations, with few job opportunities,
short on social infrastructure and blind on humanity. Urban violence could
easily become a trademark of the new megalopolis. Furthermore, for many young people,
especially for the young men, the big city will be a temporary stop before
joining the emigration flow, as they will be looking for opportunities to
settle and find a better life outside the Continent. Indeed, one can foresee
that the current youth unemployment rates – which can be estimated at 40% and
in some cases can be as high as 2/3 of the total population under the age of 35
years (the UNDP estimate of 28% is too conservative and is more inspired by a
politically correct approach than by data) – will continue to prevail in the
future.
The above described conundrums are not inspired by either a
pessimistic or a fatalist view of the future. They represent key issues, based
on real facts. They come out of any serious projection of the present trends
into the foreseeable future. For Europe, they represent two major challenges.
One is related to our system of ethics: how can we contribute to mitigate and
respond to the critical harsh demands that many in SSA will be facing? As
fellow human beings and as a Continent that has benefitted for very long from African
resources and an unequal relationship, we cannot ignore the plight of those
living next door and to whom we have been linked by history. The second challenge is related to our own
stability and security. It will be a serious mistake full of dramatic
consequences to believe that Europe can raise enough barriers and frontiers
that would isolate it from the problems experienced by people in desperation and
who would look at our region as a possible destination for their exodus.
There is however an optimistic side to the future of SSA.
The region offers vast investment opportunities, in terms of resources, and
labour, with high rates of return. It is also a growing market for many goods
and services. Private sector expansion is an indispensable avenue to a better
future. Public development assistance policies have to create space and
conditions for the entrepreneurs. Private sector co-operation is a must. Investors
should be guided by European institutions, as well as by their bilateral
co-operation agencies, and encouraged to look south, and partner with potential
counterparts in SSA.
The priorities of a
renewed development co-operation agenda
Seen from the European side of the equation, the first
priority should focus on changing the mind-set of the EU leaders. They have to
look at Africa as a moral engagement and also as a Continent with huge risks
and opportunities. The decisive objective is to bring Africa back to Europe’s
priority list of external partners. The concept of neighbourhood has to include
Africa, because of vicinity and impact, as well as our historical ties with
that Continent.
Firstly, it is a question of moral values. International
relations and aid assistance have to be based in ethic principles, such as solidarity,
promotion of people’s dignity and human rights, as well as protecting lives.
Better off Europe has the duty to assist Africa’s disenfranchised populations.
Secondly, it is a matter of Europe’s interest.
Our security is linked to human security in SSA. Additionally, Africa’s
development and democratic stability could make the region a major economic
partner of ours. The challenge is to cooperate with Africa to turn this
potential into reality.
For the EU leaders to change their approach it is necessary
to mobilise the public opinion. Members of national parliaments, as well as
MEPs sitting in Brussels, are called to play a critical role in terms of
changing the perceptions and the substance of the debate. Thereafter, the new policies
would follow. The European Parliamentary Forum on Population and Development is
a major step in the right direction. It needs, however, to have a comprehensive
view of the issues, linked to strategic goals and human security concerns. It
also requires well-defined priorities and a close link with academic and media
circles as well as with key NGOs.
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remain the
indispensable frame of reference for development co-operation. The key
challenges identified in the previous section of this paper are very much in
line with the Goals. They should constitute the starting points when it comes
to defining the aid agenda. In view of
the specific context of SSA, particular attention needs to be given to maternal
health, gender equality, and hunger. HIV is also a major issue: annually, over
70% of HIV-related deaths occur in SSA.
Furthermore, the plight of urban youth deserves exceptional attention
and resources. Recent experience has shown that youth employment programmes
lack substance, appropriate expertise and measurable results. They are also
very much oblivious of the political dimensions: lack of democratic access to
power by young people in societies where the young are the majority but the
political control is kept by older politicians. Empirical evidence has shown
that these old men are by and large disconnected from the aspirations of the
younger generations.
International migrations are not the solution to the employment
issue. It is true that we live in a more globalised world and that many will
move to foreign lands in search of job opportunities. But there are limitations
to these movements. Many of those who have migrated from Africa to Europe are
the best educated. Africa’s future needs their talent, skills and know-how. It
cannot continue to lose valuable human resources. Also, there is a limit to the number of
foreign persons Europe can absorb without compromising its own social
stability. This is a very sensitive issue but it cannot be minimized: it
requires more research about impact and absorptive capacities of European
societies and a better understanding of its long term consequences. In the
meantime, aid programmes should aim at creating the conditions for young people
to be able to settle in their own countries and lead meaningful lives where
their roots belong.
In addition to official aid programmes and strategic issues
related to peace and security, the renewed partnership between Europe and SSA
has to be built on shared economic interests. The facilitation of private
sector investments should be encouraged, to expand mutual beneficial ventures,
long term commercial and productive projects, and ensure capital protection,
corporate social responsibility and resource sustainability.
Who sets the agenda?
The partnership between Europe and SSA has to result from a
balanced dialogue between the two sides. Money cannot dictate the priorities.
Europe should not set the agenda. The donor-recipient relationship should be
something of the past. Only a balanced approach is acceptable in today’s
circumstances.
There is a tendency within the EU to think that a number of
African political leaders do not represent the interests and aspirations of
their own populations. This view is very much related to considering Africa as
a land of poor governance and unrepresentative politicians. The same people
also see many of the African intellectuals as distant from the masses,
disconnected from their roots, and unable or unwilling to influence the
political elites. They therefore conclude that the agenda should be decided in
Brussels and other European capitals. They also tend to blindly consider the
NGO community has more genuine interlocutors. The proliferation of NGOs is, in
many ways, an unintended consequence of this approach. Whilst recognising the
importance of voluntary and community based worked, one should also consider
that many African NGOs have little or no impact on people’s lives and a number
of them are simply as unconnected as many other players.
Europe has to engage the existing leaders and maintain with
them a credible, robust and frank dialogue. This is the only way we can build
an effective partnership and, if necessary, contribute to the democratization
of political life in Africa and a new type of relationship. At the same time,
Europe should avoid show off meetings, formal gatherings void of substantive
exchanges, as it is often the case between the two Commissions: the European
and the African. And, above all, Europe
should abstain from double standard approaches towards African leaders and their
governance systems. Values and principles are the same, for friends and foes
alike.
13 Dec. 2012
[1] Communication
delivered to the International Conference “Building the Africa-Europe
partnership: What Next?”- Lisbon, Fundacao Calouste Gulbenkian, 13-14 December 2012
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