The Sahel and its major challenges

The poor people in the Sahelian countries are now facing three major menaces to their survival: terrorism, covid-19, and hunger. All three are growing by the day. And I was listening to reports coming from the region, I thought the people are very resilient and combative. They do not give up. But the combination of these three threats is an immense challenge. I noticed that Africa was mentioned in today’s EU summit. The European leaders know what is going on in Africa, in particular in the Sahel region. But they must take the initiative in the international fora to mobilise exceptional support for the Continent. Medical assistance and food should be prioritised. They are much easier to deal with than the security dimensions. However, security cannot be ignored. It has become a major issue.

Bamako sunset

Thanks to a friend and the digital technology, I could watch the sun setting below the horizon of Bamako, the capital of Mali. The Niger River reflected the last rays of light of the day and sent me a message of beauty, tranquillity and vastness. Not far, the image showed one the arteries of the city, as busy as it is customary on a Sunday end of the afternoon. We talked about the virus – five registered deaths so far in the country. But we know how difficult it is to record the true cause of death in a country like Mali. Fine. The important point, for me, was to learn that life goes on as usual in the city and elsewhere. The UN mission, and the embassies, are following the prevention protocols. But the ordinary Malian is focused on what keeps him busy every day: to find enough resources to buy food and other basic needs; and to worry about the security of his family and his own, especially in the central and northern regions of the country. And those concerns are there to stay. People have very little time for the virus, as they had no time for the legislative elections that took place last weekend. The turnout in Bamako was around 10%. That says a lot. And it reminds us that we might live in a global village, but some corners of that village spend their time just trying to survive, virus or no virus.

The UN's appeal must be heard

The UN Secretary-General launched yesterday an appeal for funds to help the developing countries to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and to finance their socio-economic recovery. António Guterres stated very clearly that this pandemic is by far the deepest crisis the world has faced since World War II. It has many dimensions and all of them tremendously affect the weakest people in the poorest countries of the world. The amount he deems necessary is about $8 trillion US, meaning 10% of the global GDP.

I agree with the Secretary-General’s analysis, approach and amount he is looking for. But I am extremely pessimist as it regards to the response the richest countries will provide. Every country, in the better off regions of the world, is desperately looking for resources to deal with the impact of the Covid-19 within their own borders. The call for international solidarity is a distant call. It will not be heard. The developing world will be left to its own fate.

The developing countries that were better connected to the global economy will gradually re-establish those connections. It will take time for different reasons. The logistical chains of supply have been seriously disrupted, the demand in developed economies will remain weak for a good period and there will be an attempt to produce locally what was up to now imported from afar. International trade might take a new shape, to operate within smaller circles of nations.

The countries that were outside the global sphere of production and commerce will continue to struggle at subsistence level. Poverty will continue to be as widespread as it is now. The opportunities to go beyond the local level will not open. And we can easily guess that international cooperation and aid priorities will go further down in the multilateral agenda.

In both cases, food production for local consumption will become the central concern. Any assistance to the agricultural sector will make a difference. The other concern will be to maintain peace and security in societies that have been profoundly de-structured and further impoverished.

The media that matters is too busy with the Covid-19 progression in the most developed societies to give any serious echo to Antonio Guterres’s appeal. No media attention means additional hurdles in terms of money mobilisation. 

Independently of the success of this initiative, the Secretary-General did the right thing. He must be the moral voice of those who are too far from the wealthy and the powerful to be heard.  

Brief note on the EU Global Strategy

In the future, the EU development cooperation policy cannot just be focused on governance, security and human rights. These three domains are certainly crucial. We need to see improvements in all of them. But we cannot ignore the food security challenges, the health needs, education, gender equality, energy and some critical infrastructure. They still required massive foreign aid. They are also essential to lift people out of poverty, including the future mothers of tomorrow. And to make sure people feel encouraged to remain in their native lands. A comprehensive view of development cannot just be reduced to one size fits all.

Africa´s Green Revolution

Africa needs a Green Revolution: a major transformation of the agricultural sector. The benefits of enabling this are multiple. Not only can this contribute to addressing the fuel deficit by offering a means to diversify and localize the production of fuel. It will also enhance food security and offers a wide range of livelihood opportunities to move poor subsistence-based farmers and their families out of poverty and into greater economic security. Here too, then, there is a need for a radical re-think: looking at agriculture as a potentially profitable business opportunity, not simply as an aid or development challenge that is only oriented to poverty mitigation.

Agricultural transformation in Africa

The Africa Progress Report 2014 has just been published and I recommend its reading. It is the flagship annual publication of the Geneva-based Africa Progress Panel (APP), a non-governmental institution that is led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. APP is a key advocate for Africa´s inclusive and sustainable development.

This year´s report is about food and nutrition security. It is about farming and fishing with the poor at the centre of the policies.

And I quote from the report:

“Agriculture must be at the heart that transformation. Most Africans, including the vast majority of Africa’s poor, continue to live and work in rural areas, principally as smallholder farmers. In the absence of a flourishing agricultural sector, the majority of Africans will be cut adrift from the rising tide of prosperity.”

Alentejo, a Province in Southern Portugal

As I drove over the vast expanses of land that make Alentejo, the Southern Province of Portugal, I thought that all those, all over the world, that are interested in investing in commercial agriculture, food production, biofuels, exotic fruits, should consider visiting the region. There is so much farming land available there, just waiting for capital investment and technology. And the weather, on top of it, is not bad at all. 

The responsibilities of a leading country

John Kerry has now been endorsed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to be the next US Secretary of State. Although expected, this is good news. He follows the work of a great woman, Hilary Clinton, in one of the most demanding political jobs on earth.

I retain from his testimony to the Committee that he expressed a comprehensive view of American foreign policy. He went beyond military might and conflict resolution, which are certainly critical for peace, to include food and energy security, humanitarian assistance, the fight against disease, development aid, and climate change as integral parts of the American response to today's global issues. These are matters that would benefit tremendously from a deeper US involvement. What else should we anticipate from a leading country? Where should the example come from?

The point is to translate the intent into a coherent policy. I agree that words are important. But deeds speak louder.

I wish him well. 

The link between oil and food prices

Europe and Africa

Europe –Africa: From Indifference to Interdependence[1]

Victor Angelo

Introduction

Examining the future of the relations between Europe (EU) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), I can foresee a clear trend of mutual growing indifference, as if both regions were moving apart and becoming less interested in building a privileged partnership.

The current generation of European leaders is no longer emotionally connected with Africa. It is a depart from the attitudes of past generations, who had kept a close interest in Africa, through colonial ties and related business interests. The historical links appear now lost in the vague memories of the past. Today, the empirical observation leads to the conclusion that there is lack of understanding on the importance of co-operating with SSA. This is especially evident at present with the leaders ‘attention focused on the EU’s internal crisis, including its own new poor, the developments in the immediate neighbourhood of North Africa and Middle East and the economic and political threats China’s expansion poses.

In the current context of the international relations, Africa is perceived by many European opinion-makers at best as a distant and modest player, with little relevance to the future of Europe. For others, the stereotype is clear: Africa spells poverty, uncertainty and conflict, and undemocratic regimes. These views are not new, of course. What is new is the leverage they seem to have gained on decision making.

If one observes the relationship from an African perspective, one notices that recent studies and well publicised schools of thought question the way the EU provides development assistance, as being donor driven, arrogant and too conditional. Besides, some African political and academic personalities have extensively criticised the role of aid, as creating dependency, being ineffective and favouring the elites in the recipient countries. In addition, several political leaders throughout the Continent have decided to look towards China, India and other non-traditional partners of Africa, such as Qatar and other Gulf States, and entice new economic investments and different forms of development aid from those countries.

As a result, the following questions could be raised, from the European perspective:

·         Is it in the strategic interest of Europe to ignore the formidable challenges – high impact population dynamics, human insecurity and poor governance – that Africa will face in next decades?  And, looking at the other side of the question, is it good strategy to disregard the huge potential Africa possesses?

·         What should be the priorities for a renewed partnership between Europe and Africa? More specifically, how relevant are the SSA’s demographic challenges in the shaping of a new development co-operation agenda? The subsidiary question would be: What efforts must be made to regain the political initiative in the EU in order to bring Africa back to the top of the development agenda?

·         Who sets the agenda? Who speaks on behalf of the African populations?

Key future African challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing very fast. From less than a billion today, SSA will be home to close to 2 billion people by 2050. This rate of population growth is a major challenge with a tremendous, multidimensional impact in the Continent and globally. By mid-century, there will be in average two Africans out of nine human beings and almost three times more Africans than Europeans.

The most immediate demographic challenge, that needs to be addressed today, is how to help Africa to stabilise its overall population at the level of two billion. If we do not act now, the population in SSA will continue to grow beyond 2050, well above the level that could be considered as sustainable. For that, the demographic transition, as technically defined by the demographers, needs to be accelerated through expanded free access to contraception and related health services, girls’ education and women’s political empowerment.  Currently less than 20% of African women use modern contraceptive methods, whilst in Latin America and Asia the prevalence rate is well over 60% in average. But evidence as shown that access to family planning services and proactive population policies are incomplete and lack effectiveness if they are not accompanied by widespread campaigns to get girls to schools. Furthermore, for both issues – contraceptive access and girl’s education - to get high on the national priorities, more women need to occupy positions of political authority, as this type of development agenda is only genuinely implemented if driven by women leaders. I would hasten to add here that men’s adherence is critical for the demographic transition and the adoption of modern family life, but the change only takes place if women are truly empowered and in a position to fight for their rights.

The rapid population growth outpaces Africa’s capacity to produce its own food. Food insecurity is widespread. SSA is the region of the world with the highest rate of undernourishment: it is estimated that at least 30% of Africa’s population suffers from chronic hunger and malnutrition. As we look into the coming decades, we can forecast more widespread food insecurity that could be further aggravated by Africa’s lack of financial resources to pay for imported food combined with greater scarcity of the international supply of grains, as the consumption of cereals augments in other parts of the world, including in China, India and the Arab world. The investment in agriculture – including some kind of green revolution adapted to the region’s conditions and consumption habits – is a priority. It has however to take into account that there is water insecurity in some parts of the Continent, as there is also an expansion of the arid lands and desertification. The agricultural revolution will have to take all these factors into account and be based on seeds and technologies that will have little water demands, short production cycles and be pest resistant.

There will be in addition very serious competition for vital natural resources, such as land, rangeland, water, firewood and other forest related supplies, as well as minerals. In some cases, this competition will take violent forms, including disputes between countries, in-country armed rebellions, civil conflicts, and ethnic strife.  In other cases, it will open the door for undemocratic, corrupt governments, which will try to remain in power by force and through favouring their ethnic base’s access to scarce resources against the interests of the rest of the population.

Urbanization is the other side of the population growth coin. SSA’s cities will expand fast and chaotically. In the next decades many more urban centres like today’s Lagos and Kinshasa will spread all over Africa. These will be unmanageable, sprawling conurbations, with few job opportunities, short on social infrastructure and blind on humanity. Urban violence could easily become a trademark of the new megalopolis. Furthermore, for many young people, especially for the young men, the big city will be a temporary stop before joining the emigration flow, as they will be looking for opportunities to settle and find a better life outside the Continent. Indeed, one can foresee that the current youth unemployment rates – which can be estimated at 40% and in some cases can be as high as 2/3 of the total population under the age of 35 years (the UNDP estimate of 28% is too conservative and is more inspired by a politically correct approach than by data) – will continue to prevail in the future.

The above described conundrums are not inspired by either a pessimistic or a fatalist view of the future. They represent key issues, based on real facts. They come out of any serious projection of the present trends into the foreseeable future. For Europe, they represent two major challenges. One is related to our system of ethics: how can we contribute to mitigate and respond to the critical harsh demands that many in SSA will be facing? As fellow human beings and as a Continent that has benefitted for very long from African resources and an unequal relationship, we cannot ignore the plight of those living next door and to whom we have been linked by history.  The second challenge is related to our own stability and security. It will be a serious mistake full of dramatic consequences to believe that Europe can raise enough barriers and frontiers that would isolate it from the problems experienced by people in desperation and who would look at our region as a possible destination for their exodus.

There is however an optimistic side to the future of SSA. The region offers vast investment opportunities, in terms of resources, and labour, with high rates of return. It is also a growing market for many goods and services. Private sector expansion is an indispensable avenue to a better future. Public development assistance policies have to create space and conditions for the entrepreneurs. Private sector co-operation is a must. Investors should be guided by European institutions, as well as by their bilateral co-operation agencies, and encouraged to look south, and partner with potential counterparts in SSA. 

The priorities of a renewed development co-operation agenda

Seen from the European side of the equation, the first priority should focus on changing the mind-set of the EU leaders. They have to look at Africa as a moral engagement and also as a Continent with huge risks and opportunities. The decisive objective is to bring Africa back to Europe’s priority list of external partners. The concept of neighbourhood has to include Africa, because of vicinity and impact, as well as our historical ties with that Continent.     

Firstly, it is a question of moral values. International relations and aid assistance have to be based in ethic principles, such as solidarity, promotion of people’s dignity and human rights, as well as protecting lives. Better off Europe has the duty to assist Africa’s disenfranchised populations. Secondly, it is a matter of Europe’s interest.  Our security is linked to human security in SSA. Additionally, Africa’s development and democratic stability could make the region a major economic partner of ours. The challenge is to cooperate with Africa to turn this potential into reality.

For the EU leaders to change their approach it is necessary to mobilise the public opinion. Members of national parliaments, as well as MEPs sitting in Brussels, are called to play a critical role in terms of changing the perceptions and the substance of the debate. Thereafter, the new policies would follow. The European Parliamentary Forum on Population and Development is a major step in the right direction. It needs, however, to have a comprehensive view of the issues, linked to strategic goals and human security concerns. It also requires well-defined priorities and a close link with academic and media circles as well as with key NGOs.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remain the indispensable frame of reference for development co-operation. The key challenges identified in the previous section of this paper are very much in line with the Goals. They should constitute the starting points when it comes to defining the aid agenda.  In view of the specific context of SSA, particular attention needs to be given to maternal health, gender equality, and hunger. HIV is also a major issue: annually, over 70% of HIV-related deaths occur in SSA.  Furthermore, the plight of urban youth deserves exceptional attention and resources. Recent experience has shown that youth employment programmes lack substance, appropriate expertise and measurable results. They are also very much oblivious of the political dimensions: lack of democratic access to power by young people in societies where the young are the majority but the political control is kept by older politicians. Empirical evidence has shown that these old men are by and large disconnected from the aspirations of the younger generations.

International migrations are not the solution to the employment issue. It is true that we live in a more globalised world and that many will move to foreign lands in search of job opportunities. But there are limitations to these movements. Many of those who have migrated from Africa to Europe are the best educated. Africa’s future needs their talent, skills and know-how. It cannot continue to lose valuable human resources.  Also, there is a limit to the number of foreign persons Europe can absorb without compromising its own social stability. This is a very sensitive issue but it cannot be minimized: it requires more research about impact and absorptive capacities of European societies and a better understanding of its long term consequences. In the meantime, aid programmes should aim at creating the conditions for young people to be able to settle in their own countries and lead meaningful lives where their roots belong.

In addition to official aid programmes and strategic issues related to peace and security, the renewed partnership between Europe and SSA has to be built on shared economic interests. The facilitation of private sector investments should be encouraged, to expand mutual beneficial ventures, long term commercial and productive projects, and ensure capital protection, corporate social responsibility and resource sustainability.

Who sets the agenda?

The partnership between Europe and SSA has to result from a balanced dialogue between the two sides. Money cannot dictate the priorities. Europe should not set the agenda. The donor-recipient relationship should be something of the past. Only a balanced approach is acceptable in today’s circumstances.

There is a tendency within the EU to think that a number of African political leaders do not represent the interests and aspirations of their own populations. This view is very much related to considering Africa as a land of poor governance and unrepresentative politicians. The same people also see many of the African intellectuals as distant from the masses, disconnected from their roots, and unable or unwilling to influence the political elites. They therefore conclude that the agenda should be decided in Brussels and other European capitals. They also tend to blindly consider the NGO community has more genuine interlocutors. The proliferation of NGOs is, in many ways, an unintended consequence of this approach. Whilst recognising the importance of voluntary and community based worked, one should also consider that many African NGOs have little or no impact on people’s lives and a number of them are simply as unconnected as many other players.

Europe has to engage the existing leaders and maintain with them a credible, robust and frank dialogue. This is the only way we can build an effective partnership and, if necessary, contribute to the democratization of political life in Africa and a new type of relationship. At the same time, Europe should avoid show off meetings, formal gatherings void of substantive exchanges, as it is often the case between the two Commissions: the European and the African.  And, above all, Europe should abstain from double standard approaches towards African leaders and their governance systems. Values and principles are the same, for friends and foes alike.

13 Dec. 2012

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[1] Communication delivered to the International Conference “Building the Africa-Europe partnership: What Next?”- Lisbon, Fundacao Calouste Gulbenkian, 13-14 December 2012