Mozambique: a complex crisis
Victor Ângelo
Following
last week’s terrorist attack on the town of Palma, eighteen civil society
organisations sent an open letter to the President of Mozambique. In addition
to condemning the acts of violence, the letter expressed concern and reminded
President Filipe Nyusi that a crisis as serious as the present requires more
and better public communication from national leaders. The recommendation means that the leadership
of the country does not pay due attention to the obligation to keep the citizens
informed. The practice of playing down the problems is the norm. We cannot be
surprised. Opacity, arrogance, and detachment are three of the characteristics
that have traditionally defined the political culture of the elites in power in
Maputo.
It
is also noticeable that citizens do not understand what the government's
strategy is, beyond the use of the armed forces, which, by the way, have shown
that they are not entirely prepared for the challenge. NGOs do not believe in
the national military capacity and know that there is no time to wait for the
training of special forces in sufficient numbers. It is true that training
special troops is essential. The willingness expressed by the Portuguese
government to do so is to be commended. But the situation is urgent, for
humanitarian and other reasons. What has now occurred in Palma, and what had
already happened in Mocímboa da Praia and other district headquarters in Cabo
Delgado province, may spread along the northern coast, especially to areas
where Swahili is the lingua franca. NGOs recommend that the authorities ask the
Southern African Development Community and the African Union for security
assistance. I do not think they will. They do not want critical eyes around or
to give the impression that the problem requires regional involvement.
It
is clear, however, that this is a more serious conflict than has hitherto been
thought. The offensive against Palma was planned in a professional manner. One
of the conclusions that must be drawn is clear: behind all this there is an
organising hand. It is essential to unmask this hand, which seems to me far
more sophisticated than a vague jihadist connection.
Apparently,
the central objective is to prevent the gas megaproject, which is being
launched in the region, from going ahead. The price of natural gas on the
international markets is at an all-time low and the trend is for it to remain
that way. It is of no interest to the big gas producers for new competitors to
appear, especially one that could have enormous impact. Mozambique's reserves
are in third place in Africa, after Nigeria and Algeria. When they will start
to be extracted - which will only happen if security is restored in the
province - they will be in direct competition with Iran, Qatar, and Saudi
Arabia, which are respectively the world's third, fourth and eighth largest
producers. I am not pointing the finger at anyone, but geopolitics recommends
that we look at data like this. Especially if we take into account that future
demand for gas could stagnate for reasons of the fight against climate change.
International public opinion is less and less favourable to investments in
hydrocarbons.
The
fundamental point, beyond the clean-up of Palma, humanitarian aid and
technical-military assistance to Mozambique, is to try to understand the roots and
dynamics of this terrorist offensive. To minimise, to ignore the realities of
social exclusion or to insist on stereotypical explanations - including those
referring to alleged links to the so-called Islamic State - would be a mistake.
We are facing an insurrection capable of serving certain interests and easy to
promote. These are fighters who know how to survive with little, without the
need for elaborate logistics. The weapons come from desertions, from previous
ambushes, now from the attack on Palma, and from the illegal markets for
military equipment in East and Central Africa. They do not want to occupy land,
but to shoot the representatives of power and generate insecurity in areas with
economic interest, but with a weak State presence. They are therefore highly
dangerous individuals. They need to be taken seriously, but without simplistic
approaches.
(Automatic translation of the
opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and
prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
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