The Demcracy Summit and its question marks

We are all for democracy

Victor Angelo

 

President Biden is organising a virtual summit on 9th and 10th for democracy. It will be the first of two. The aim of the summit is to get each leader to announce measures to strengthen democracy in their respective countries. The second, in a year's time, will take stock of the promises made next week. The US will also make commitments. We will see which ones, because in recent years the American democracy has shown worrying weaknesses. The US is one of the countries in democratic decline according to this year's report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), an authoritative organisation based in Stockholm.

At first, I thought the initiative was a mistake, a further attempt to create divisions within the community of nations and a further stab at the multilateral system. But given that the international democratic climate has taken serious steps backwards recently, in the end I decided to give Biden the benefit of the doubt. And I, like many others, await the results. Anything that can contribute to the strengthening of fundamental rights and better governance will be welcome. As will a discussion on the impact of the digital revolution on political choices and the liberation of citizens' voices.

Such a meeting is, however, a big deal. The list of those excluded will give as much to talk about as the topics under debate. The UN has 193 member states. Biden invited about 110. In the EU, Viktor Orbán was left out, thus giving a strong argument to those who see the Hungarian leader for what he really is: an autocrat. But Poland, which is certainly not a better example of the rule of law, is on the list. The reason seems clear: Warsaw is a faithful, and increasingly strong, military ally of American policy in Eastern Europe. Still regarding NATO, Recep Tayyib Erdogan does not appear on the list either. Most probably because the Americans do not appreciate his political-military closeness to Vladimir Putin. Erdoğan has become a stone in NATO's boot and that makes many people uncomfortable. In the case of the CPLP, the Portuguese-speaking community of States, the exclusion of the two Guineas - Bissau and Equatorial Guinea - is understandable. But one wonders why the White House did not invite Mozambique.

Neither China nor Russia will take part in the meeting. Their respective ambassadors in Washington co-signed an article condemning the summit. Then came other criticisms, in Beijing and Moscow. China, which is furious that Taiwan was invited, asserts that it is a socialist democracy, widely supported by the population - today no one talks about the dictatorship of the proletariat anymore. Russia goes further and claims a parliamentary system that is over 100 years old, which includes the entire era of Stalin and company. Both regimes swear blindly that they are democratic, each in its own way. And that the summit is therefore arrogant, divisive, and in essence a provocation against China and Russia.

Democracy is a very elastic concept. No dictator will ever acknowledge that his regime is undemocratic. On the contrary, they all maintain that they were democratically elected. So say Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko, Nicolás Maduro, Bashar al-Assad and many others. Even Robert Mugabe, in his time, said that the elections, which he stole by stealth, were perfectly legitimate and free. So did others, whom I have come to know during my professional life and after having witnessed various electoral shenanigans. The only one who will have no such worries will be Kim Jong-un, the comic-tragic despot of North Korea.

The issues under discussion - how to curb authoritarianism; the fight against corruption; and the defence of human rights - are fundamental pillars of democracy, let there be no doubt. Where there will certainly be room for doubt is when we learn of the commitments that certain countries will proclaim, thinking that all this is just talk. Even so, it may be worth going ahead with the summit, because progress is also made with idealistic initiatives.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 3 December 2021)

 

 

Mozambique and the Northern challenge

Mozambique: a complex crisis

Victor Ângelo

 

 

Following last week’s terrorist attack on the town of Palma, eighteen civil society organisations sent an open letter to the President of Mozambique. In addition to condemning the acts of violence, the letter expressed concern and reminded President Filipe Nyusi that a crisis as serious as the present requires more and better public communication from national leaders.  The recommendation means that the leadership of the country does not pay due attention to the obligation to keep the citizens informed. The practice of playing down the problems is the norm. We cannot be surprised. Opacity, arrogance, and detachment are three of the characteristics that have traditionally defined the political culture of the elites in power in Maputo.

It is also noticeable that citizens do not understand what the government's strategy is, beyond the use of the armed forces, which, by the way, have shown that they are not entirely prepared for the challenge. NGOs do not believe in the national military capacity and know that there is no time to wait for the training of special forces in sufficient numbers. It is true that training special troops is essential. The willingness expressed by the Portuguese government to do so is to be commended. But the situation is urgent, for humanitarian and other reasons. What has now occurred in Palma, and what had already happened in Mocímboa da Praia and other district headquarters in Cabo Delgado province, may spread along the northern coast, especially to areas where Swahili is the lingua franca. NGOs recommend that the authorities ask the Southern African Development Community and the African Union for security assistance. I do not think they will. They do not want critical eyes around or to give the impression that the problem requires regional involvement.

It is clear, however, that this is a more serious conflict than has hitherto been thought. The offensive against Palma was planned in a professional manner. One of the conclusions that must be drawn is clear: behind all this there is an organising hand. It is essential to unmask this hand, which seems to me far more sophisticated than a vague jihadist connection.

Apparently, the central objective is to prevent the gas megaproject, which is being launched in the region, from going ahead. The price of natural gas on the international markets is at an all-time low and the trend is for it to remain that way. It is of no interest to the big gas producers for new competitors to appear, especially one that could have enormous impact. Mozambique's reserves are in third place in Africa, after Nigeria and Algeria. When they will start to be extracted - which will only happen if security is restored in the province - they will be in direct competition with Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, which are respectively the world's third, fourth and eighth largest producers. I am not pointing the finger at anyone, but geopolitics recommends that we look at data like this. Especially if we take into account that future demand for gas could stagnate for reasons of the fight against climate change. International public opinion is less and less favourable to investments in hydrocarbons.

The fundamental point, beyond the clean-up of Palma, humanitarian aid and technical-military assistance to Mozambique, is to try to understand the roots and dynamics of this terrorist offensive. To minimise, to ignore the realities of social exclusion or to insist on stereotypical explanations - including those referring to alleged links to the so-called Islamic State - would be a mistake. We are facing an insurrection capable of serving certain interests and easy to promote. These are fighters who know how to survive with little, without the need for elaborate logistics. The weapons come from desertions, from previous ambushes, now from the attack on Palma, and from the illegal markets for military equipment in East and Central Africa. They do not want to occupy land, but to shoot the representatives of power and generate insecurity in areas with economic interest, but with a weak State presence. They are therefore highly dangerous individuals. They need to be taken seriously, but without simplistic approaches.

   (Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

 

 

 

Mozambique´s enormous population growth challenges

After an agonizing day of hesitation and with great regret, I concluded I could not accept an invitation to deliver a talk in Maputo, at the end of May, on the vast population growth challenges Mozambique is confronted with. The date was not good as I have already a number of commitments around that time. I would have loved to do it. I was the first representative of the UN population agency (UNFPA) in that country, back in 1980. But besides that, Mozambique is a mirror of the situation many African countries face at present: very fast population growth rates, early marriage and teenage pregnancies, as well as very important internal migrations and unemployment issues.

The talk would be an opportunity to contribute to the reflection about the medium and long term implications of all these problems. It would also be an opportunity to acknowledge some of national efforts that the country is trying to implement. And it should also be another chance to call for deeper international partnerships with Africa in matters related to the links between population and development.

I hope these issues will come out loud and clear, in any case. 

Mozambique needs help

In Mozambique, the security and political environment have deteriorated fast during the last four of so weeks.

The political stress between Renamo, the former guerrilla group that became the key opposition party after the peace agreement of the early 90s, and the government led by Frelimo has flared up. There has been some armed violence between the two, albeit very localised and contained. But the tension remains unresolved. It can easily escalate and lead to deep conflict.

In the main urban centres there has been a series of criminal kidnappings for ransom. In one the recent cases, in Beira, the little boy that had been taken was murdered by the bandits. These actions are creating a lot of fear. They add to other types of crimes that are very common in the cities, such as burglaries and armed robberies. The Police seems unable to cope.

On the top of it all, there have been serious accusations of corruption against the close relatives of the President and other political figures. The President himself has a very tarnished image. He has vast business interests. Many believe that his control of business and wealth is related to abuse of power and traffic of influence.

It is sad to see the country moving into crisis. This has been a good example of post-conflict recovery. And also of economic growth. It cannot become now a bad example of bad leadership.

And the external friends of Mozambique need to wake up. Their help can make a difference. 

Mozambique needs to enhance the domestic political dialogue

On Saturday about twenty armed men attacked a police station in a rural area of central Mozambique. The attackers could be linked to former rebels of Renamo, an organization that fought the Frelimo-led government during the eighties and early years of the nineties. That was at the time a very ugly civil war.

Today, Renamo has changed itself in to a political movement. As a party, it sits in Parliament and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, is given the status of Opposition leader. But the old tensions between the two sides are still very much part of Mozambique’s political life. The Saturday incident is only a remote reminder of the widespread, deep animosity that defines the relations between Renamo and the party in power, Frelimo.  

 Mozambique’s Human Rights League (LDH) has just called the attention of those who want to see the reality that civil war could come back. And it appeals for statesmanship, tolerance and political consultations. Particularly at a time when local elections are being prepared and national legislative elections are scheduled for 2014.

During the last twenty years the donor community has invested heavily in the country.  They have become major partners in the peace building process. They should make use of their leverage to push both political sides to dialogue. It would be a serious mistake – which the key international players cannot afford – to pretend that there is no problem.