Mozambique and the Northern challenge

Mozambique: a complex crisis

Victor Ângelo

 

 

Following last week’s terrorist attack on the town of Palma, eighteen civil society organisations sent an open letter to the President of Mozambique. In addition to condemning the acts of violence, the letter expressed concern and reminded President Filipe Nyusi that a crisis as serious as the present requires more and better public communication from national leaders.  The recommendation means that the leadership of the country does not pay due attention to the obligation to keep the citizens informed. The practice of playing down the problems is the norm. We cannot be surprised. Opacity, arrogance, and detachment are three of the characteristics that have traditionally defined the political culture of the elites in power in Maputo.

It is also noticeable that citizens do not understand what the government's strategy is, beyond the use of the armed forces, which, by the way, have shown that they are not entirely prepared for the challenge. NGOs do not believe in the national military capacity and know that there is no time to wait for the training of special forces in sufficient numbers. It is true that training special troops is essential. The willingness expressed by the Portuguese government to do so is to be commended. But the situation is urgent, for humanitarian and other reasons. What has now occurred in Palma, and what had already happened in Mocímboa da Praia and other district headquarters in Cabo Delgado province, may spread along the northern coast, especially to areas where Swahili is the lingua franca. NGOs recommend that the authorities ask the Southern African Development Community and the African Union for security assistance. I do not think they will. They do not want critical eyes around or to give the impression that the problem requires regional involvement.

It is clear, however, that this is a more serious conflict than has hitherto been thought. The offensive against Palma was planned in a professional manner. One of the conclusions that must be drawn is clear: behind all this there is an organising hand. It is essential to unmask this hand, which seems to me far more sophisticated than a vague jihadist connection.

Apparently, the central objective is to prevent the gas megaproject, which is being launched in the region, from going ahead. The price of natural gas on the international markets is at an all-time low and the trend is for it to remain that way. It is of no interest to the big gas producers for new competitors to appear, especially one that could have enormous impact. Mozambique's reserves are in third place in Africa, after Nigeria and Algeria. When they will start to be extracted - which will only happen if security is restored in the province - they will be in direct competition with Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, which are respectively the world's third, fourth and eighth largest producers. I am not pointing the finger at anyone, but geopolitics recommends that we look at data like this. Especially if we take into account that future demand for gas could stagnate for reasons of the fight against climate change. International public opinion is less and less favourable to investments in hydrocarbons.

The fundamental point, beyond the clean-up of Palma, humanitarian aid and technical-military assistance to Mozambique, is to try to understand the roots and dynamics of this terrorist offensive. To minimise, to ignore the realities of social exclusion or to insist on stereotypical explanations - including those referring to alleged links to the so-called Islamic State - would be a mistake. We are facing an insurrection capable of serving certain interests and easy to promote. These are fighters who know how to survive with little, without the need for elaborate logistics. The weapons come from desertions, from previous ambushes, now from the attack on Palma, and from the illegal markets for military equipment in East and Central Africa. They do not want to occupy land, but to shoot the representatives of power and generate insecurity in areas with economic interest, but with a weak State presence. They are therefore highly dangerous individuals. They need to be taken seriously, but without simplistic approaches.

   (Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

 

 

 

Robert Mugabe

Robert Mugabe passed away this morning.

I spent four years of my professional life (2000-2004) in close contact with him. During that time, I met President Mugabe frequently. In the end, on the eve of my departure, he came back to Harare from the province, for a final meeting and goodbyes.

I was then the UN representative in Zimbabwe.  

We disagreed on many things, but we kept a cordial rapport. I am not sure he has learned anything from me. But I did, from him. Among them, on this day, I will recall a couple of them.

First, leaders should not remain for too long in power. If that happens, time changes the positives into disasters. And what people keep in their minds is the negative tail end. Many will remember Robert Mugabe for that, the tragedy the country has become under his presidency and beyond.

Time limits are essential for democracy to be sustained.

Second, politics is about the control of power. And people in power, if allowed, will do anything to keep such control. Anything, indeed. Mugabe has destroyed Zimbabwe’s economy as a way of undermining his opponents. No price was too high for him to stay in power.

That’s why the building of democracy calls for strong institutions and an energetic private sector economy. Institutions go beyond individuals and bring balance. They counter authoritarian tendencies coming from those on the top of the executive pyramid. And people must be able to find alternative livelihoods outside the State.

Mugabe was also a hero for many, in terms of Africa's liberation. Maybe, that should be the main emphasis of any comment about his life, on this day of his passing.

Zimbabwe and the regime's savagery

In the afternoon I was on the phone with a Zimbabwean friend based in Harare. We discussed the recent human rights violations and the police brutality. All that is unacceptable and shows that President Mnangagwa is not able to respond to the deep crisis the country is in. Old habits die hard. And the President is going back to what he has known all his life, under the leadership of Old Robert: violent repression of popular discontent. That can only bring more suffering and misery to the country. It is very sad. I add my voice to the condemnation of such acts of tyranny and to the lack of respect for the people of Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe's distress

Unfortunately, Zimbabwe is again in the news headlines for the very wrong reasons. 

This past week has seen mass protests, violence, misery and death. As in the past, the government responded to unrest with extreme and unjustified force. Basic human rights are simply ignored. The regime is brutal, as ruthless as it has been in past similar situations. It’s unclear how many people have been killed by the police and the soldiers.

Zimbabweans have been under tremendous suffering, unimaginable hardship, for the best part of the last two decades. That´s a long national crisis, with a very heavy toll. The leadership has been inconsiderately inhumane.

And the little ray of hope that the new President had brought, after the departure of Robert Mugabe, appears now to have become a very sad illusion. Key democrats feel devastated by the new dramatic events. And as I write this evening, the situation is still getting worse.

Very sad.

Mozambique´s enormous population growth challenges

After an agonizing day of hesitation and with great regret, I concluded I could not accept an invitation to deliver a talk in Maputo, at the end of May, on the vast population growth challenges Mozambique is confronted with. The date was not good as I have already a number of commitments around that time. I would have loved to do it. I was the first representative of the UN population agency (UNFPA) in that country, back in 1980. But besides that, Mozambique is a mirror of the situation many African countries face at present: very fast population growth rates, early marriage and teenage pregnancies, as well as very important internal migrations and unemployment issues.

The talk would be an opportunity to contribute to the reflection about the medium and long term implications of all these problems. It would also be an opportunity to acknowledge some of national efforts that the country is trying to implement. And it should also be another chance to call for deeper international partnerships with Africa in matters related to the links between population and development.

I hope these issues will come out loud and clear, in any case. 

Elections Zimbabwean style

On 31 July Zimbabweans will be offered a new chance of being robbed. Indeed, on that day presidential elections will take place. And the Electoral Commission, appointed by good old Robert and loyal to the regime interests, will do again what they have done in 2002, 2005 and 2008: make sure that the Mugabe camp steals the elections. The Electoral Commissioners are very expert at that job. I have observed and also implemented many elections in Africa and elsewhere. I have never seen an institutional machinery so smart as the one in Zimbabwe that can organise chaos, put in place rules and legal obstacles, and create all conditions for the old man to be “elected” in a way that looks good enough.

I would love to be wrong this time. 

Mozambique needs to enhance the domestic political dialogue

On Saturday about twenty armed men attacked a police station in a rural area of central Mozambique. The attackers could be linked to former rebels of Renamo, an organization that fought the Frelimo-led government during the eighties and early years of the nineties. That was at the time a very ugly civil war.

Today, Renamo has changed itself in to a political movement. As a party, it sits in Parliament and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, is given the status of Opposition leader. But the old tensions between the two sides are still very much part of Mozambique’s political life. The Saturday incident is only a remote reminder of the widespread, deep animosity that defines the relations between Renamo and the party in power, Frelimo.  

 Mozambique’s Human Rights League (LDH) has just called the attention of those who want to see the reality that civil war could come back. And it appeals for statesmanship, tolerance and political consultations. Particularly at a time when local elections are being prepared and national legislative elections are scheduled for 2014.

During the last twenty years the donor community has invested heavily in the country.  They have become major partners in the peace building process. They should make use of their leverage to push both political sides to dialogue. It would be a serious mistake – which the key international players cannot afford – to pretend that there is no problem.