Mali and the Rest of the Sahel as Priorities Ignored by European Geopolitics

Mali, a vast country and a mosaic of cultures, is just two steps from Europe and one step from collapsing as a state. Earlier this week, the President of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, made a dramatic appeal to the international community—a term that is increasingly vague these days—to prevent the country from falling into absolute chaos. He expressed deep concern about the rapid expansion of various terrorist groups, whose activities are based on two pillars: ethnic-religious fundamentalism and organised crime. The state administration and security forces control only a small fraction of the territory. The rest, including the north, the centre, and the outskirts of the capital, Bamako, are operational zones for armed groups. Some are affiliated with the terrorist web known as Al-Qaeda or the self-proclaimed Islamic State, while others are mainly ethnically based, with Tuaregs and Arabs against the Bantu populations of the south.

The financing of terrorist actions is largely domestic. It includes artisanal gold mining, with the gold then sold to Russian organisations, metamorphoses of the infamous Wagner Group. It is suspected that the gold passes through the important Dubai gold market, where it is converted into currency that then goes to Russia. The Russians aligned themselves with the coup military after two military coups (2020 and 2021) and managed to expel the French presence and the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA). They also maintain indirect contacts with the rebellions and traffickers operating in the Persian Gulf.

The imposition of taxes on the population under religious pretences, the kidnapping of wealthy nationals and the few foreigners who still travel in the affected regions, the control of the main roads—which are only passable for those who pay to travel safely and accept keeping only part of their goods—the theft of cattle, all of this funds the costs of violence. Then there is the issue of drugs: the Sahel, of which Mali is a part, is one of the corridors between Latin America and Europe. In the Sahel, the drug trade buys governments and rebels. And the drugs enter our continent through the weakest points, where control and security measures are insufficient and political governance is more inattentive, as is the case in the Algarve, among others.

There is also human trafficking, with migrants coming from all over West Africa heading to Europe, plus the smuggling of fuel, tobacco, and weapons. It is all cash in hand, in lands without law or order. Schools do not function, except for madrasas run by ignorant fanatics, and there are no jobs for the youth born from an unstoppable demographic explosion. The Kalashnikov has become the only possible livelihood.

Youssouf calls for a robust response against terrorism in Mali and the vast Sahel. It is a fully justified warning, but one that will fall on deaf ears. The UN Security Council, after the forced departure of France from the region, the expulsion of MINUSMA, and the growing influence of the Russians under Vladimir Putin, has swept the region into the corner of the forgotten. The Europeans, who relied on client regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—governments that received funds from Brussels to curb migratory movements—have been overtaken by Moscow. Putin understands that chaos in the Sahel has a disproportionate negative impact on neighbouring Europe. For Europe, it means more immigrants, more drugs, more insecurity, and a colossal loss of geopolitical influence in the Sahel.

I worked for several years in the region. I knew a Mali and neighbouring countries capable of producing great intellectuals and handling governance matters seriously. That was the generation that grew up in the post-colonial period. Many of them left the country, recruited by international organisations. Others emigrated to France to teach in major schools, or to Canada, a country that easily opened its doors to French-speaking university graduates.

Even then, there were rebellious movements, because certain ethnic groups and populations in the most remote regions felt ignored by the central power of their countries. The most serious conflicts involved those who lived by herding and those by farming. It was a competition between two ways of life that were hardly compatible in those arid lands. But solutions could be found. It was also possible to meet with rebel leaders and negotiate with them. The United Nations and I, as the organisation’s envoy, were treated with respect and moderation.

Everything changed in the last 15 years. Religious extremism, various forms of crime, corruption from the bottom to the top in these states, uncontrollable demographic growth accompanied by climate change—including the harmattan, the dry desert wind, increasingly spreading in the region—and the scarcity of rain, along with hostility promoted by Gulf countries and Russia against democratic ideas, all this has created an extremely complex situation. And we Europeans only remember the Sahel when we see the children of these lands selling trinkets on our beaches and terraces, or being attacked here by parties of xenophobia, hatred, and racism. It is reason enough to ask where the EU’s geopolitical strategy is.

Mozambique and the Northern challenge

Mozambique: a complex crisis

Victor Ângelo

 

 

Following last week’s terrorist attack on the town of Palma, eighteen civil society organisations sent an open letter to the President of Mozambique. In addition to condemning the acts of violence, the letter expressed concern and reminded President Filipe Nyusi that a crisis as serious as the present requires more and better public communication from national leaders.  The recommendation means that the leadership of the country does not pay due attention to the obligation to keep the citizens informed. The practice of playing down the problems is the norm. We cannot be surprised. Opacity, arrogance, and detachment are three of the characteristics that have traditionally defined the political culture of the elites in power in Maputo.

It is also noticeable that citizens do not understand what the government's strategy is, beyond the use of the armed forces, which, by the way, have shown that they are not entirely prepared for the challenge. NGOs do not believe in the national military capacity and know that there is no time to wait for the training of special forces in sufficient numbers. It is true that training special troops is essential. The willingness expressed by the Portuguese government to do so is to be commended. But the situation is urgent, for humanitarian and other reasons. What has now occurred in Palma, and what had already happened in Mocímboa da Praia and other district headquarters in Cabo Delgado province, may spread along the northern coast, especially to areas where Swahili is the lingua franca. NGOs recommend that the authorities ask the Southern African Development Community and the African Union for security assistance. I do not think they will. They do not want critical eyes around or to give the impression that the problem requires regional involvement.

It is clear, however, that this is a more serious conflict than has hitherto been thought. The offensive against Palma was planned in a professional manner. One of the conclusions that must be drawn is clear: behind all this there is an organising hand. It is essential to unmask this hand, which seems to me far more sophisticated than a vague jihadist connection.

Apparently, the central objective is to prevent the gas megaproject, which is being launched in the region, from going ahead. The price of natural gas on the international markets is at an all-time low and the trend is for it to remain that way. It is of no interest to the big gas producers for new competitors to appear, especially one that could have enormous impact. Mozambique's reserves are in third place in Africa, after Nigeria and Algeria. When they will start to be extracted - which will only happen if security is restored in the province - they will be in direct competition with Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, which are respectively the world's third, fourth and eighth largest producers. I am not pointing the finger at anyone, but geopolitics recommends that we look at data like this. Especially if we take into account that future demand for gas could stagnate for reasons of the fight against climate change. International public opinion is less and less favourable to investments in hydrocarbons.

The fundamental point, beyond the clean-up of Palma, humanitarian aid and technical-military assistance to Mozambique, is to try to understand the roots and dynamics of this terrorist offensive. To minimise, to ignore the realities of social exclusion or to insist on stereotypical explanations - including those referring to alleged links to the so-called Islamic State - would be a mistake. We are facing an insurrection capable of serving certain interests and easy to promote. These are fighters who know how to survive with little, without the need for elaborate logistics. The weapons come from desertions, from previous ambushes, now from the attack on Palma, and from the illegal markets for military equipment in East and Central Africa. They do not want to occupy land, but to shoot the representatives of power and generate insecurity in areas with economic interest, but with a weak State presence. They are therefore highly dangerous individuals. They need to be taken seriously, but without simplistic approaches.

   (Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

 

 

 

The Special Operations and the Special One

The recent American operation against the leader of the Islamic State must be recognised as a major success. In addition, I would mention three facts that are also of great import.

First, it was once again clear that the US Intelligence machinery is the best in world. They know how to establish information collection networks and they have the means and the capacity to achieve results in very hostile environments.  

Second, the US Special Operations Units are also top performers. They prepare well, train extensively the scenario they might expect and have the determination and the courage to undertake very risky operations.

Third, the President is a political disaster, whatever the prism you may use to look at him. The way he told the story was most embarrassing. He couldn’t go beyond his own self and was unable to give the moment the seriousness it deserved. He is just a poorly informed amateur. Fortunately, behind him, there is an intelligence community and a military establishment that know what they are supposed to do.

Supporting the Kurds in Syria

All indications, facts and intelligence, and independent media reports, show that the so-called Islamic State is still a serious threat in North-Eastern Syria. It would be utterly irresponsible for any democratic leader do deny it.

Moreover, all the support that can be provided to those inside Syria that have demonstrated their determination to effectively fight the IS terrorists should be sustained. That’s the case of the Kurdish fighters under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

That support must include political negotiations with the Turkish government, even if one knows that such initiative is not easily accepted by President Erdogan. Without ignoring Erdogan’s belligerent approach towards the Syrian Kurds, my recommendation is to keep the strategic liaison with Ankara as close as possible. Turkey must be part of the Syrian stabilization process. There should be no doubt about that, as there is no doubt about the critical role played by the Syrian Kurds and their fellow allies. All this, as we make sure everyone understands that any form of terrorism, war crimes and violence are absolutely unacceptable. 

On Turkey and Iraq

At the same time the offensive against the Islamic State terrorists moves on towards Mosul city, we have seen a very serious Turkish military build-up on the border areas with Iraq. Apparently the leadership in Ankara has decided to launch a major armed operation inside Iraq, as a means of stopping the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

This Kurdish group is seen as major threat by the Turkish government.

But one should be aware that any major military incursion into Iraq would further complicate a very delicate and dangerous situation. The Turkish authorities have the right to defend their borders. There is no ambiguity about that. However, they should refrain from getting deeply involved in the internal affairs of Iraq. That would add fire to the region. 

Distant Syria

The Syrian crisis has disappeared from the front pages. There have been so many other shocking pieces of news during the last weeks. They took all the headline space available. Syria is now something distant and routine. Deadly familiar. Forgotten. And even when the matter pops in, as it happened earlier this week in Washington, it was to discuss the so-called Islamic State or Daesh, not to look for ways of ending the long-lasting hell that Syria has become.

Even the UN seems to have lost sight of the matter.

Or, it would be smart to re-open the case. We must show that we control the agenda, not the terrorists and some other crazy fellows. That we decide about what is on the table. And Syria is certainly a critical issue that cannot skip out of our eyes. 

Libya needs a more coordinated EU assistance

Key countries committed to help Libya to overcome the chaos created in October 2011, when Muammar Kaddafi was overthrown by a Western coalition of countries, met today in Vienna to look for ways of supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) that is now in place in Tripoli. The GNA is led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and has the support of the UN. It´s however facing major difficulties. There are two other rival governments in the Eastern and Central areas of the country as well as dozens of small armed groups all over. The terrorist group Islamic State is also heavily present in a growing number of places.

The EU could play a major role in the stabilisation process. Italy should take the leading coordinating role on the European side. But Italy is very unclear about its own policy approach to Libya. It had suggested it would deploy Italian troops under the UN banner. Now, the government in Rome says it is not prepared to go that way. Fine. But at least they could bring together the EU States and advocate for a common political position. That´s very much needed as France, the UK and others are on their own in the country and working with separate armed groups and factions. Such actions do contribute to add further confusion in Libya. There is therefore room for fighting for a unified EU position. Why is Italy so hesitant? 

Obama and the four EU leaders: a comment

President Obama, on the last day of his visit to Germany, met with Angela Markel, David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. In my opinion, he should have invited Donald Tusk as well. This would have added strength to his speeches about the EU´s relevance. Words are important and the President said the right ones. But he missed the opportunity to show he means business when supporting Europe´s unity.

The meeting lasted two hours. Most of the time was spent on the situation in Syria, including the positions that should be taken regarding the Geneva negotiating process, which is now out of the rails, and the fight against the Islamic State terrorists. On the latter, it is clear the IS has been losing ground. There is less money available, less volunteer fighters, and greater military pressure on them. The additional deployment of 250 US Special Forces, announced moments before the meeting by Obama, is also a significant development in combatting the terrorists. I hope the Germans in particular will also increase their contribution to the ground operations.

The rest of the meeting focussed on Libya. Italy and the UK are most likely to intensify their support to the recognised Libyan Prime Minister. And in addition, we should see more naval patrols off the Libyan coast soon. There are some differences of opinion about the nature of such maritime task force: should it be a NATO-led force or should it be an expansion of the current EU-sponsored naval presence? In any case, the maritime effort should be a supporting one to the actions on the ground inside Libya. The priority is on land and that means stabilising the situation in that North African country.

Today in Brussels

We had a very dramatic day in Brussels. The bombs at the airport and in the subway, at the beginning of the working hours, have shaken everyone. They had a major political and economic impact. But they will not make us become less tolerant. From where I stand, I can say that people have shown a lot of restraint. They were certainly deeply shocked. However, they have not fallen into any kind of xenophobic reaction or racist mood. That basically means that the terrorists have been able to hurt all of us but they cannot change our way of life, they will not win. We, here in Brussels, are used to a very diverse city and will continue to appreciate that diversity. That´s the world of today. Theirs is a world of a very distant and barbaric past. 

Aleppo

The Russian forces deployed in Syria are now focussed on getting the city of Aleppo and its surrounding areas under Assad´s control. That´s were their current main effort is. Not on the Islamic State terrorists. As they do that, tens of thousands of people move out of the area and try to seek refuge in Turkey. This gives the Russians another reason to go for Aleppo: it ends up by increasing the pressure on the Turks. And, as we know, the Russians have an axe to grind with Turkey. This is a way of doing it. All this aggravates the geopolitical tensions and makes a political solution even more remote. Actually, at this stage I see almost no chance to get the Geneva talks back on the agenda. The bet seems, once again, to be on a military response to an inhumane chaotic situation. 

Supporting the political process in Libya

We shouldn´t lose sight of the appalling crisis that is going on in Libya. There are some good people out there, trying to bring things under control and the European powers – or what remains of such powers… – should get much more engaged and supportive. They should start by giving leverage to the efforts the UN is pursuing in order to bring law, order and basic human rights to Libya.

The alternative is further chaos at our doorsteps, growing menaces, more people smuggling into Europe, and above all leaving the space ready for the violent extremists to win the game. 

Syria´s moves

In the end, it might not result. But the UN´s determination in moving ahead with the Syrian political talks in Geneva most be commended. Every interested party, from the country and from the outside world, with the exception of the Islamic State and Al-Nusra Front terrorists, has to be faced with the reality: it is time to find a political solution to the long lasting crisis. They better sit around the table or in the rooms next door and be part of the solution.

It will not be easy. But it is the only way forward.

It should however be accompanied by an intensification of the campaigns against the two terrorist organisations mentioned above. That new degree of intensity can only be achieved through the action of Special Forces. As the Geneva process takes off the ground, the background discussions about the use and the role of such forces should take place elsewhere and under the co-leadership of the US and Russia. The UN should have no role there. 

The Syrian negotiations should go ahead

The negotiations on Syria are scheduled for next week in Geneva. The formal leadership of the process rests with the UN. And it is in the interest of the UN to have a diverse representation of the factions that are engaged in the conflict, with the exception of the most extreme, such as the so-called Islamic State and the al-Qaeda inspired Jabhat al-Nusra. Everybody else who is prepared to discuss should be around the place. Not necessarily, at the beginning, around the same table, but part of the process for sure.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries are trying to prevent some movements from being invited. We could expect that. It´s consistent with their interests. But it´s up to the UN to say no to that kind of pressure.

There are no saints in the Syria disaster. This is a tragedy of devils. But those among them that believe they can negotiate, give and take, should be in. In these matters you confront and discuss with your enemies, including the worst among them. And you appreciate their willingness to be around. That´s actually the difference between them and the terrorists. A terrorist is a criminal that accepts no room for a compromise.

Terrorism in Ouagadougou

Another day, another terrorist attack. This time the target is an international hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In the evening, there were a couple of explosions outside the hotel and then a group of armed men stormed the facility. At this stage it is still a developing crisis. I am afraid it will end as a very tragic event.

Burkina Faso is a good example in Africa. The country has just completed a democratic transition. Elections were disputed with fair play and the results accepted by everyone. A new President and a fresh government have just been inaugurated. All seems very promising in a country that has a very young population, well educated and where the religious and ethnic diversity has not been played by the politicians. It is a pretty tolerant and open society.

It is also next door to Mali and part of the Sahel region. These are very sensitive areas.

Tonight´s sad events in Ouagadougou are just a reminder, a very dramatic one, of the dangers that many countries are facing these days. The fight against terrorism is now one of the top priorities and does call for an international supporting mechanism. Countries like Burkina Faso need and deserve such support. 

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…

Russia is moving to Syria

There is a debate going on about Russia´s intentions in Syria. The reinforcement of their airbase in the port city of Latakia goes far beyond force protection and self-defence considerations. It is a big move. It looks like creating a big logistics base for a deeper mission in Syria.

The next few days should allow us to have a better understanding of the Russian plans in that country. They should also give us a hint of Moscow´s plans regarding their presence in the region. 

11 September

A day to remember all of those who have been victims of terrorist actions. And to reaffirm that one of the most pressing priorities of today, for every government that believes in democracy and tolerance, is to neutralise the leadership and the key elements of the so-called Islamic State. 

Call for a new policy approach on Syria

In view of the recent events, it should be clear that the time has arrived for a new policy on Syria.

The humanitarian crisis must be addressed. And the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State have to be neutralised. These are the two overriding priorities. Both of them require the Western countries and the neighbouring countries in the region to adopt a new approach.

One of the key steps should therefore be to re-engage with Bashar al-Assad. Leaders need to recognise the need for such a move. Assad has been a considerable part of problem, it is true. But he is going nowhere, we reached a standstill. He will stay in charge of part of the country and in command of a share of its ruins. He represents an important albeit small segment of the Syrian population. And he knows that the UN Security Council will never agree on his condemnation.

He should therefore be part of the solution. To continue to consider his removal from power a critical objective is the wrong option.

 We cannot ignore the plight of the displaced and the refugees. As we cannot forget that the IS fanatics are a major threat to the region and to us as well.  All efforts should focus on both issues.

More on the strategy against the terrorists of the Islamic State

We usually emphasise that each national crisis should have a political response and end up with an agreement between the parties. In the case of Syria, it would be, at this stage, a serious mistake to insist on a political solution. The situation has reached such a dramatic level that the only way forward, for the moment, is through a military approach. Politics and diplomacy have to wait. They will come later.

The goals to be achieved are clear: to destroy the self-proclaimed Islamic State and protect the civilian population from further violence. These objectives do call for a major allied armed offensive and also for a change of tactics when it comes to the Assad regime.

On the military side, my writing of yesterday is clear. I can only add that we just have to make sure that those who will take the decision to go for the force option have the support of the popular opinion in their countries. And then ask those leaders to move fast.

On Assad, it is time to make a difference between the man and his people. The headman will have to go. The key criminals that have directly supported him must be brought to justice as well. But we need to find ways of bringing his ethnic group, the Alawites, and all those who are around the administrative and security machineries on board, on our side, as long as they have no real crimes in their hands. They should be part of the solution. If they are not they will be, soon enough, because Assad´s collapse is getting closer, the next mass victims of the brutes that only conceive death as the appropriate punishment  for those who are different.

It is indeed time to think strategically. And be strong.