New uncertainties next door in the Greater Sahel
Victor Angelo
In
1990, the Chadian rebel leader Idriss Déby returned to the country from Sudan.
He led a column of armed men, composed mainly of fighters from his home
region. Days later he seized power in
Ndjamena, with the approval of François Mitterrand. The French president knew his
geopolitics. He saw Chad as the essential node for the interests, influence and
security of France and its client states in that part of Africa. Therefore, it
was essential that it be controlled by a strong man, consistent and friendly to
France. Déby had this profile. And successive French presidents got used to
turning a blind eye to systematic human rights violations, high-scale
corruption, and the tribalization of power, so as not to weaken their ally in
Ndjamena.
The
support became even more solid when Déby decided that his troops would be, on
the African side, the strong arm in the fight against the different jihadist
groups that terrorize the populations of the Sahel. His military became by far
the best prepared in the region. Even against Boko Haram, Chad's capability is
far superior to Nigeria's. The UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA) has a considerable
Chadian presence - 1400 troops, with a more offensive posture than most other
blue helmets. In addition, Déby had just sent an additional 1200-man brigade,
as part of the regional military cooperation known as G5 Sahel, to the
three-border area especially targeted by terrorists - the triangle where Mali,
Niger and Burkina Faso converge.
The
military institutions of the countries in the region are structurally weak and
kept that way by politicians, who are more afraid of possible coups than of
terrorists. Of all the neighbours, only Déby, trained as an officer in France
and hardened in the desert campaigns, was a true war chief. His combativeness
was legendary. In 2008, a rebel faction arrived at the gates of his palace.
Nicolas Sarkozy proposed that he be exfiltrated into a golden exile. Déby and
other loyalists, some of them now members of the Transitional Military Council,
refused, preferring to fight to the end. And they eventually defeated the
assailants. Shortly afterwards, as the UN Special Representative, I discussed
this crisis with Déby. I recall three points from that meeting. First, the
recognition that his troops were neither organized nor equipped effectively.
Second, the decision to spend a good deal of oil money on transforming his
fighters into professional soldiers. Third, the decision to seek an
understanding with Omar al-Bashir's Sudan, as he had already done with
Gaddafi's Libya, so that neighbouring territories would not be used as bases
for launching rebellions. And so it was. By late 2009, the difference was
already clear. Since then, these capabilities have been consolidated. France,
the United States, and other Westerners began to see Chad as the spearhead
against terrorism and religious extremism. Criticism of dictatorship and
nepotism have been put in the freezer.
But
in these lands of instability, life takes many turns. Déby closed his cycle
this week, perhaps in a similar way to the one he did thirty years ago. Only
this time the rebel column was from the tribe next door, it came from Libya,
and the president fell on the front line. Chad, Central Africa, the Sahel,
France, and the Europeans present in the region became more fragile.
Several
questions arise from the disappearance of Idriss Déby. What motivated President
Macron to leave him without his usual support, when in 2019 he had sent
fighters to quell a similar rebellion? Miscalculation? Who is behind this new
rebellion, known as FACT (Front for Change and Concord in Chad)? What impact
will the new reality have on the conflict in the Central African Republic? What
to expect from the G5 Sahel and the fight against terrorism in this part of
Africa? Each of these questions hides many uncertainties and concerns. The
future of the poor people of Chad is the greatest of them.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the
Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
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