Europe and the Coming Turbulence
Victor Ângelo
The
launch of the Conference on the Future of Europe took place this week in
Strasbourg, at the official seat of the European Parliament. The symbolism of
Strasbourg is enormous. It represents reconciliation, peace, democracy, and
solidarity among Europeans. These four desiderata are still as relevant today
as they have been during the last seven decades, a period of continued
construction of the European political
edifice. It is therefore important to remind ourselves of that, to recognize
where we have come from and to define where we want to go in the next decade.
That
is the aim of this initiative, which is due to be completed in March 2022. It
would be a mistake to make a cynical assessment of the conference. However
subtle it may seem, cynicism is the knife of the bitter and the downbeat. What
is called for is a citizen's reflection that combines realism with idealism,
that is a critical but constructive view. It is a matter of going beyond the
rhetoric or the usual elucubrations.
The
conference is a different test, which will allow us to measure the strength of
citizenship movements. In fact, the biggest challenge facing the EU is
precisely that which stems from the gap of ignorance or indifference between
politics and the European institutions on the one hand, and people's daily
lives on the other. Even in Brussels, people who live a few blocks away from
the European district seem to be as disconnected from the EU as any family
living in a small village in Portugal. A political project that is not understood
by ordinary mortals is fragile. It can easily be jeopardized by its enemies.
The
nine axes for reflection about the future ignore this disconnection. The topics
are important: climate change and the environment; health; the economy,
employment, and social justice; the EU's role in the world; rights and
security; digital transformation; democracy; migration; and education, culture,
sport, and youth. But it is a mistake to take citizens' support for the
European project for granted. This is a fundamental issue. After an absolutely
exceptional year, we find in European societies a lot of frustration,
confusion, impatience, and a more pronounced individualism. We also have a set
of internal and external enemies ready to exploit vulnerabilities and bring down
the EU. That is why the discussion about the path to 2030 must begin with an
analysis of weaknesses and threats.
A
forward-looking assessment of the coming years shows us that we will be
impacted by three major shock waves. The first comes from the accelerating use
of cybernetics, in particular artificial intelligence, which will turn many
Europeans into digital illiterates and redundant labour. If not properly
addressed, it will further exacerbate social inequalities and job insecurity.
The
second will result from new waves of uncontrolled immigration and the
exploitation of this phenomenon by certain forces. It will not only be Viktor
Orbán or Jarosław Kaczyński, or even Sebastian Kurz, who will divide Europe on
this issue. The chances of Marine Le Pen gaining power in 2022 or of Italy
being ruled by a coalition of ultranationalists in 2023 - in an alliance of
Matteo Salvini with neo-fascist leader Georgia Meloni, whose Fratelli d'Italia
party already mobilizes 18% of the national electorate - must be reckoned with.
A front that brings together such politicians in several member states would
cause a potentially fatal fracture for the continuation of Europe.
The
third strategic shock - something to be avoided at all costs - could come from
a possible armed conflict between the United States and China. Such a
confrontation, which can by no means be excluded from the prospective
scenarios, would have a devastating effect. European stability and prosperity
would go down the drain.
The
message, now that the debate has been opened, is that there can be no taboo
subjects and no incomplete scenarios that do not consider the internal and
external complexity in which we will move. Already, one fact is certain. There
are years of great upheaval ahead of us.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the
Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
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