Europe, China, and the US: a turbulent triangle
Victor Ângelo
European
policy towards China requires a smart balance between respect for democratic
values and economic interests. It is a complex issue that touches the daily
lives of European citizens. You only have to look at the map of rail
connections - 5,000 freight train journeys are expected in 2021 - or at the sea
charts showing the routes of cargo ships to understand the interdependence
between Europe and China. We need to import what we do not produce - or have
stopped producing. The Chinese need our markets to ensure important levels of
economic growth, one of the pillars of internal stability and regime
continuity.
This
interdependence has increased spectacularly since Xi Jinping came to power in
2013. It is part of his strategy. And the trend is for it to accentuate in the
coming years. In addition to mutual investments and the increasing purchase by
Westerners of Chinese stocks and treasury bonds, note that the economic
corridor is more and more diverse. Some lines pass through Russian Siberia,
others through Kazakhstan. Later, there will be a land link via Iran and
Turkey, not forgetting the sea routes, which rely mainly on the ports of
France, Italy and the Netherlands. The smooth functioning of this vast transit
area requires a permanent political dialogue between the countries, which will
have to be based on an understanding of mutual interests and perceptive
pragmatism. To facilitate this dialogue and open a wider door, Europe should
take the initiative to propose the creation of a consultative platform for the
Eurasian corridor. Any disruption of traffic, for political or security
reasons, would have a dramatic impact on the economy and people's lives,
particularly in the European area. This tangle of relationships stems from the process
of globalisation that began more than two decades ago. Anyone who thinks that
the way in which the international economy is now organised can be
significantly reversed is dreaming politics without having their feet firmly
planted in reality.
The
disruptions currently occurring here in Europe in the supply chains for raw
materials or finished products produced in China and the escalating cost of
transporting a container from a Chinese port to a European one already give us
a bitter taste of what could happen if there were a serious disruption due to
disagreement between the parties or the imposition of ill-considered sanctions.
For example, before the pandemic, transporting a 40-foot container by sea from
Shanghai to Europe could cost between $2,000 and $4,000. Now it has reached
$17,000 and the waiting time can be up to several months. And this is despite
the fact that Chinese container production accounts for more than 85% of the
world's total. These problems may be temporary, the result of an acceleration
of economic recovery in the more developed parts of the world and the pressure
they put on shipping. Any European importer who needs made-in-China goods or
components to maintain their manufacturing activities will be well able to
explain the importance of a trade relationship without unnecessary hindrance.
The more informed will also stress the need to avoid a further escalation of
tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea. This also applies to the Chinese
side, which should not continue to pursue an escalation of offensive actions in
these sensitive areas.
In
a deeply interconnected world, one cannot think geopolitically and make
strategic decisions following past models or seeing the world as a black and
white scenario. The Americans have chosen a path of confrontation. On this side
of the Atlantic, that option appears to be a dangerous choice and contrary to
our interests. This is why Europe cannot and must not copy Washington.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published yesterday in the
Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
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