Beijing and the coronavirus messages

The Chinese people are now very well connected through social media. They share information and images freely, as long as they make use of the approved platforms and applications and the subjects are not politically censored. The people’s information is more trusted than the official information provided by the government and its media-subordinated outlets.

This is now the situation with coronavirus epidemic. Most of the information is obtained through social platforms. And they show that the health services are under extraordinary pressure and cannot respond to all the demands. They also show that some districts bordering the affected areas are taking local initiatives that are not necessarily approved by Beijing. These initiatives included roadblocks and interdictions. They have all the trademarks of spontaneous, impulsive actions. That seems to indicate serious panicking and a bit of chaos. 

It is true that this is a major challenge. The messages coming from the centre, from the leadership, show concern but lack the necessary reassurances that an emergency like this one requires. I get the impression that the official communication strategy is still unclear and unfocused.

Let the intelligence people do their work

The most dangerous mistake regarding North Korea could result from erroneous intelligence. It´s a real possibility. I know from a number of examples that intelligence agencies, even the best resourced and the most experienced ones, tend to make mistakes on critical matters. That´s particularly the case when they are under serious political pressure, as it is the case.

If the relevant intelligence people come to the conclusion that the North is about to launch some kind of nuclear or other threatening device, our side might then decide that the time for pre-emptive action is upon us. In these matters, decisions are taken fast.

Once they have been taken, it might be too late to contain and mitigate their multiple consequences.

Therefore, the first point in such a delicate situation as the current one is to make sure the intelligence work is carried out as professionally as possible, outside any type of political compulsion. Secondly, it is essential to fully consider the regional leaders ´opinion. Particularly, the South Korean ones, who are at present at the end of a decisive presidential campaign for an election scheduled for May 9. This is their region and in the world of today, their views are of paramount importance. 

Living in Beijing

Beijing is a fascinating place, a friend of mine who lives there told me today. I am sure it is. But if you do not speak Mandarin, as it is his case, you lose most of it. You live just in the margins of life as it happens in that big city. And you feel very small, just an ethnically minuscule dot in a society that has very little respect for Westerners. And you also live in an illusory world, far disconnected from a society that is profoundly different and extremely materialistic. 

Hong Kong is different

The Hong Kong mass demonstrations show once again that people cherish their freedom once they have been able to acquire it. Freedom is one of the top aspirations of humankind.

The political pact that underwrites stability and state control in China is based on growing well-being for the people. The Chinese accept at this stage, not always with a warm heart, that their liberty be curtailed as long as the government keeps the economic expansion and is in a position to augment the population´s purchasing power.

In Hong Kong, the standard of living is much higher than in Mainland China. Therefore, that part of the pact has very attraction. People are already there, they are wealthy. But they have also enjoyed political freedom. And they do not want to lose it. Once you have tasted it you want to keep it.

Furthermore, the people of Hong Kong have a serious dislike for the Mainlanders. They look at their fellow compatriots from Mainland China with a deep, open feeling of superiority. Hong Kong citizens complaint about the other Chinese by saying they are greedy, dishonest, uneducated and too narrow-minded. That feeling is quite perceptible when you talk to the people in Hong Kong. If you tell them that you are planning to visit the Mainland, as I did, they will keep warning you about the cheating you might be subject to once you have crossed the border.

The Beijing authorities know they cannot send the army to deal with the street protests in Hong Kong. They would like the demonstrators to take a false step and try to invade the administrative buildings in the city. But that seems not to be the case. So, Beijing will wait. They know that the streets will get tired and the demonstrations will end up by fading away. That will probably be the case.

But Beijing also knows that the people of Hong Kong do not want the kind of political dispensation that prevails in the Mainland. And that´s a very strong message.