The vision

In our part of the world, Easter time is about a renaissance. That’s a very appropriate moment to talk about the future. The public message must be inspired by prudent optimism. It´s good politics to describe the possible scenarios ahead of us. And give people more information about recovery plans. People appreciate being treated as adults, as responsible citizens. There is too much talk about the pandemic and not enough about the actions that will be supported during the recovery phase. Let’s move from fear to resilience. Leaders must share a vision that brings hope and shows to everyone they know what they intend to do, once the public health menace is under control. To narrate a vision will also help the leaders to sharpen their views on the policies that are required. A vision is not about wishful thinking. It is about what one sees as the situation after the crisis. It has a powerful positive effect on everyone, including on the leadership itself.

Don't panic and be prepared

The coronavirus is impacting the world economy in an extraordinary manner. Yesterday and today, the financial markets lost trillions of dollars. That’s about real people’s money as well as pension funds and other institutional investors. That’s wealth that simply evaporates. Every time a new person is found sick, here and there, specially in the most developed economies, that sends a shockwave across the markets. There is a massive reaction because the world has become a village and people are constantly on the move. Besides that, what is produced here needs components from afar and a supply chain that crosses half of the planet.

The key point at this stage is to be able to show to the public opinion that the epidemic can be contained. In addition, it is important to underline that most of the cases can be easily treated in the right hospital environment. Panic would bring a major global crisis.

Coronavirus at the heart of Europe

It has been a crazy day in the financial markets. All of them were deeply in the red. The coronavirus outbreak in Italy is a little bit the straw that broke the camel’s back. Northern Italy is a wealthy region. It is very well connected to the heart of Europe. And that has generated some serious panic. Now, the response must be the opposite. To keep everyone, calm. To show that we have the means to circumscribe the outbreak. It is not an easy task. But that’s the role we expect the political authorities to play. So far, the Italians and their neighbours are playing the appropriate cards. Let’s hope they will keep doing it. If any of them decides to restrict the border crossings that will send a very negative signal to the public opinion.

Follow the WHO rules

The measures taken by many countries to prevent the spreading of the coronavirus epidemic do not take into account the procedures established by the World Health Organisation. They make WHO appear as irrelevant, which is another way of attacking the multilateral system, in particularly the UN.

The measures go well beyond the recommended protocols. Many of them have a political justification and not just a public health concern. They are taken to tranquilise the domestic public opinion in those countries. And they have also a strategic dimension, in the sense they want to send a message to the Chinese authorities, a message that says that China can be isolated from the international community. They are an attempt to point out, basically, that the Chinese strength has very fragile clay feet. That China is not as strong as its leaders want the world to believe.

I totally disagree with such an approach. In this case, I say no to geopolitical games. It is true that China has its own fragilities. But this is not time to take advantage of a major health and social challenge to try to teach a lesson to the leaders in Beijing. The moment calls for serenity and international coordination.

The Chinese Communists do not know how to communicate

I have not talked with President Xi Jinping. But I guess he is immensely worried with what is going on in China. There is a major public health problem. We might not know all the dimensions of the problem, but there is no doubt it is a huge challenge for everyone in the country. But besides the health deep concerns, the coronavirus epidemic is creating major economic, social and, I would dare to say, political problems in China. The streets and the malls have been deserted. People are afraid of the contagion. But above all, they are not getting the message that matters politically: that the government knows what they are doing and will be able to control the spreading of the disease. This message must be formulated soonest. And must be made credible.

I do not see it addressed in the next few days. The government knows how to direct but it is not very good when it comes to communication techniques. The official line, repeated again and again, and expected to be trusted because in comes from the top, is not being accepted by the people. They are just growing more and more concerned.

Beijing and the coronavirus messages

The Chinese people are now very well connected through social media. They share information and images freely, as long as they make use of the approved platforms and applications and the subjects are not politically censored. The people’s information is more trusted than the official information provided by the government and its media-subordinated outlets.

This is now the situation with coronavirus epidemic. Most of the information is obtained through social platforms. And they show that the health services are under extraordinary pressure and cannot respond to all the demands. They also show that some districts bordering the affected areas are taking local initiatives that are not necessarily approved by Beijing. These initiatives included roadblocks and interdictions. They have all the trademarks of spontaneous, impulsive actions. That seems to indicate serious panicking and a bit of chaos. 

It is true that this is a major challenge. The messages coming from the centre, from the leadership, show concern but lack the necessary reassurances that an emergency like this one requires. I get the impression that the official communication strategy is still unclear and unfocused.

Juncker's major shortcoming

On this European Day, I wrote in my Portuguese language blog “Vistas Largas” that a lot has been achieved in terms of our common future and joint response to many challenges. But I also added that the European Commission has been mediocre in matters of strategic communications. There is no Commissioner with that kind of portfolio – this should be corrected when the new team takes power in November. And the Commission seems to believe that press conferences, press releases and a crowd of spokespersons are enough to cover the information needs of the European citizens. That’s not a strategic approach. And the experience has shown that it is not enough to keep the citizens aware and get their active involvement in European matters.

If people do not know, they do not support. And they become vulnerable to those who lie and disseminate anti-EU propaganda. That’s where many of us find ourselves today, a few weeks before the next European parliamentary election.

This is a major failure of the outgoing Juncker team. A far-reaching one.

Assange and the legality of some cover operations

Julian Assange’s predicament leaves no one indifferent, in our part of the world. He has scores of supporters. Also, plenty of detractors. His personality, not just his deeds, is deeply controversial. I will not enter that discussion.

However, I recognise that, thanks to his initiative, it has been possible to demonstrate that a good number of actions taken by powerful Western governments, under the cover of national security and defence, surpassed the limits of what can be considered legitimate. Basic rights and values have been shaken by such actions.

And that brings back a fundamental question that remains unresolved in our democracies. The systems in place do not ensure a proper democratic, ethical and legal control of some undercover operations carried out by special military forces, or by specific police and intelligence services within the security apparatus. It has become obvious that our parliaments are not prepared to exercise such oversight. They intrinsically lack the competence and the political strength to carry out that role. And the justice machinery is basically in the same position of weakness.

I think it is time to envisage the creation of a constitutional body that would bring together a small number of elders, a group of sages who have reached the end of their professional ambitions and careers, and have behind them an immaculate life history, a public image of great credibility. This would be a top-level group mandated to oversee and assess complex legal and ethics practices as carried out by special government agencies. Such independent panel would report to an appropriate parliamentary committee.

This move would certainly respond to some key interrogations that we ought to deal with, based on what Assange and Wikileaks have revealed.  

Assange and the law

Julian Assange has a long legal battle in front of him. The decision about his fate must be based on the law. But his case has so many political ramifications that it will be difficult to separate the legal aspects from their political context. It will be a very controversial process.

Strategic communications are essential and part of the solution

The EU public opinion matters a lot. People have access to lots of information but the average citizen is still very much influenced by what they watch on TV.

My sense is that the leaders are not communicating well on Greece´s crisis. This is a very sensitive matter that can be easily exploited by any camp that promotes populism, and radicalism, and opposes the EU. It can also weaken further the fragile feeling of common interests.

Every leader has his or her part of responsibility. National leaders should address their national audiences and explain what is at stake and the choices that are being made. Juncker and Tusk, in Brussels, they have likewise to step forward and talk about the issue in a way that goes beyond the sound bites and a patronizing approach. It´s very much their call.  

Fighting Ebola requires more public information

The international community is now paying attention to the Ebola epidemics in West Africa. And that´s good news. It would be a dramatic mistake to underestimate the risks of a very rapid spreading of Ebola to other countries in Africa and elsewhere.

WHO, the UN World Health Organization, is in the lead. That´s how it should be. Its Director-general, Dr Margaret Chan has been to the region to participate in a summit with the Presidents of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the countries most concerned. This was a high profile initiative. As it is the decision to allocate 100 million USD to fight the disease.

Local populations are still very confused about the epidemics. There is a serious need to invest more on health education and on public information. That´s also part of the combat.