Brazilian politics

Dilma Rousseff´s impeachment might be seen from different partisan perspectives. Fine. But my point is a different one. It´s about constitutional processes. And her trial by the Senate followed the procedures established in the Brazilian Constitution. The debate was not always serene and had a number of much undignified moments. Yet, in the end, it was democracy in action through institutional mechanisms.

On a different point, let me refer that some of the Senators and other top political actors might not be an example of probity. There is plenty of corruption within the party machineries. That should be the next political challenge for the people of Brazil. If that is tackled with steadiness the poor citizens, that have been the main support of Dilma and her movement, might become more inclined to accept the impeachment decision of today. It is therefore time to speak about launching a laundry political process.  

Brazil´s democracy

The Brazilian politics are again in a mess. And beyond the surface, the key issue is related to widespread corruption among the different layers of the country´s political class. Dynasties of politicians just try to take advantage of public office. For them, politics is about personal gain, more than anything else.

Now, the impeachment process of President Dilma Rousseff adds extra fuel to an ongoing crisis. Dilma has made some important political mistakes and has lost popular support. Part of those faux pas are related to corruption as well. She has tolerated illegal actions carried out by some of those close to her inner circle. But she has above all come to personify another feature of the Brazilian politics: ineptitude.

Incompetence cannot be a reason to impeach a president. If that was the case, many in many parts of the world would be kicked out of office well before the end of their mandates.

It might however happen in today´s Brazil. It seems too late for Dilma to be able to stop the slide.

If it happens, one should regret it. But, at the same time, one could recognise the strength of the constitutional set up as the institutional processes are allowed to follow their course in Brazil. We cannot say the same about other countries in Brazil´s neighbourhood. Brazil might be in the middle of a political carnival. But its democracy is stronger than many around it. 

Brazil´s politics might get closer to the Venezuela´s model

Two days later, the situation I described in the previous post about the Brazilian crisis has reached a new level of political immorality. Lula da Silva has indeed been sworn in as super minister, some kind of premiership equivalent position, just to see his appointment cancelled by a federal court. That judicial decision has further weakened President Dilma Rousseff´s standing as well. Her credibility got a new serious blow.

The crisis is now so deep that it will be very difficult for Dilma to keep the presidency for much longer. But she will not go without a real fight. Dilma wants to bring the issue to the streets and have one side of the population confronting the other side. That will give her some grounds to say that if she goes there will be civil unrest. She will try to grasp that last straw. But the problem is more complex. Brazil is deeply divided, the political actors have no moral authority and we can expect extreme manifestations of discontent. In some sense, Brazil could become a lighter copy of the chaos that is occurring in Venezuela. 

Brazil: moving fast in the wrong direction

The political crisis in Brazil is deteriorating fast. President Dilma Rousseff´s decision to appoint former head of State Lula da Silva as a senior Cabinet minister has contributed to a new level of malaise. People cannot understand this attempt to extract Lula from a regular judicial scrutiny.

And there are new revelations about corruption within the inner circle of power.

The pursuit of the impeachment process is now more likely. And we can also expect some additional desperate moves from Dilma´s side.

All this will bring additional deep fractures among Brazilians and further economic difficulties. The country will be in a very bad shape at a time it should be at its best to host the Olympic Games. But that´s only a lesser detail. The true challenge will be to repair the great damage that all this corruption will cause to Brazil´s self-respect and its international image. 

On Brazil again

Returning to theme of yesterday – Brazil – I should add that in addition to the corruption issue, that is undermining the credibility of some political circles, there is a serious problem of deep social disparities.

Many Brazilians live a very tough live and their children have few chances of getting out of the social swamp because they are not proper schooled. Education for the very poor is still a major challenge. The ruling Workers ‘Party has helped the poor, but the policy of money grants is not sustainable.

Then, on the other side of the class ladder we find people that enjoy all pleasures of life and can afford a standard of living that is comparable to the best in the world.

It is the middle class that is being squeezed out. The cost of decent housing and other expenditures have increased dramatically during the last few years. Some costs are far higher than in Europe. 

Therefore, it is no surprise to see that the main activism against President Dilma comes from people belonging to the urban middle classes. She is actually losing ground fast within this social group. 

Corruption in Brazil´s leading circles

I had a long conference call with a Brazilian friend who lives in Rio de Janeiro. And I could realise how much the Petrobras corruption scandal is eroding the foundations of President Dilma Rousseff´s power. It is also exposing her natural tendency to micromanage everything that counts, instead of letting the institutions and the procedures do their work. She is in serious need of sound advice. But is she able to listen?

Dilma´s challenges

Dilma Rousseff has been re-elected President of Brazil. It was a tough campaign and many people in the country thought she would not make it. She had created quite a number of die-hard opponents, particularly among the urban middle class and the riches segments of the nation. But the country remains above all a socially divided society, with large numbers of very poor and excluded people. They are the ones that constitute the electoral basis of Dilma. And to be frank, it is better they feel represented. That´s Dilma´s card. But it is also the card of all those who are better off. They cannot afford to have a large number of people below the poverty line and dis-empowered. It is not safe, it is not a solid ground for stability.

Dilma´s job now is to respond to the aspirations of the largest number of people including those that have voted against her and do not like her administration at all. She has to be seen as inclusive, and able to fight corruption. But above all, she has to be seen as a leader that can promote growth and greater equality in a country that is not growing fast enough, notwithstanding its possibilities, and that is deeply unequal. Can she do the job?

   

Dilma´s political future is at stake

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil´s head of State, is fighting for her political future.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place in about eleven days, on October 26. The odds are playing against Dilma. Her party has been in power for the last twelve years. It is strongly embedded in the administrative apparatus and it has also a solid support in the poorer segments of the country. But at a time of economic slowdown, as it is today the case in Brazil, when public resources have become scarcer, it is easy to put the blame on the government and vote against those in power. On top of that, large sectors of the urban and better educated Brazilians are today against Dilma´s party and her control of the administrative machinery. They are basically afraid of Dilma´s interventionist policies, of new taxes, and they want change.

In many ways, the Brazilian society is today much polarised. And less solidary. Class plays a defining role. And individualism, personal success, is also a common trait in a country that prides itself for its self-made men and women. Many do not understand the social policies Dilma´s party has implemented in favour of the poor.

All that runs objectively against a candidate that is identified with a strong option for a more redistributive social policy.

I am afraid Dilma might be the loser at the end of the day, on the 26^th. 

Dilma and Marina

The forthcoming presidential elections in Brazil, scheduled for 5 October with a second round taking place on 26^th, if necessary, should be studied with great attention by those who are particularly interested in leadership issues.

 Dilma Rousseff, the incumbent, is in a tight battle against Marina Silva, an opposition candidate that might bring together the social-democrats and the centre-right. Actually, in the current Brazilian spectrum, it is not easy to talk about left and right politics as the main candidates have founded their campaigns on broad alliances that cover a good number of parties and movements. But that´s not my point at present. The point is about the personalities and the way the two leading ladies conduct their election campaigns. They have two different styles, both very remarkable. There is a lot to be learned from them in terms of political leadership in a huge and very diverse country.

DIlma has against her the fact that her party has been in power for 12 years and that many would like to see a change of direction in the way politics are conducted. The events of the last 14 months, with mass demonstrations and many opposing the way public money has been spent on prestige projects, or embezzled by corrupt individuals in positions of power, run against Dilma´s re-election. She has however many positive trump cards. Would they be enough? Would they be played in the appropriate manner?

Marina, on the other side, represents a bit of fresh air, but with many contradictions in terms of her political positions. She projects however a more caring image and that plays in her favour. It also plays for her the fact that she comes from very humble roots and the simplicity of her discourse. She might be the next president of Brazil. 

Prying eyes

President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil said that her planned visit to the US can only go ahead if she receives a clear explanation from President Obama regarding the spying accusations. Indeed, the US seems to have been snooping on the Brazilian President –and others, such as the Mexican head of State. This is certainly a very unfriendly action and one understands Dilma’s position. It is the only acceptable response.

But in diplomacy realism tends to prevail. She will receive some type of assurances from Obama. Then, she will say the US has apologised and the visit will move on. That’s fine. By then, the point would have been clearly stated. The question will however remain: one cannot envisage an American administration that is not “watching” under cover what the two main rivals of the US in Latin America are cooking. Washington will say sorry, and then change the system and will continue the old practise. It is in their blood and in their own interest, as they see it.

It is up to Brazil and others to keep protesting and keep saying this is not acceptable.  And to try to protect itself from prying eyes.

Brazil is not listening to Dilma Rousseff

I talked to friends in Brazil to discuss the aftermath of President Dilma Rousseff’s address to the country. I had found her speech wise and conciliatory and wanted to know my friends’ opinion about it. And also get a bit of the mood these days.

Apparently, the speech has not been listened to. Many urban people seem too eager to continue the street rallies and the social network campaigns. They have little hope that the current leadership will be strong enough to change the political system. And that is the kind of change they aspire for.  A good number believe that it is time to bring to power a different type of politicians. And many mention the name of the Supreme Court President, Justice Joaquim Barbosa. He is certainly an example people like to refer to.

And a name to keep watching. 

Brazil's class politics

Recently I spent about three weeks in Brazil. And I wrote, in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visao, where I am their international affairs columnist, that I found a better country than fifteen years ago. Indeed, Brazil is a much safer place, with a striving economy and a growing international agenda. But I also said that the cost of living is exceptionally high, the currency overvalued –which benefits the urban rich that love to travel abroad –and the police too close to the interests of the rich and powerful.

Since then, the country has been headline news. The riots in many urban centres reveal the malaise that many Brazilians experience. This malaise is a composite feeling that is fed by several streams: corruption, low politics, high cost of living, poorly performing public services and wide social disparities. In addition, life in the big cities can be extenuating just because of the time it takes to move from home to work and vice-versa.

The demonstrations also show that the urban middle class is deeply against the ruling party, Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT, President Dilma’s party. They see this party as something close to the populism prevailing in other parts of South America, a party that is too keen in taxing the better-off in order to give subsidies to the insouciant masses. For them this is not social justice, it is lefty power politics.