The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.

The European social-democrats are getting me confused

Is the European democratic socialism in crisis?

That was today´s question in a small group that met to discuss what next for the social-democrat movements in Europe. And I have to add that the debate was not very conclusive. To start with, it is getting more and more difficult to make a difference between the left wingers and their opposite parties of the centre right. Then, there are those who place greater emphasis on behavioural matters, such as the gay and lesbian issues, and others that keep the focus on the economy, job creation and equality matters. But you find people from both the right and the left saying the same things about these issues. And one gets confused then.  

Brazil's class politics

Recently I spent about three weeks in Brazil. And I wrote, in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visao, where I am their international affairs columnist, that I found a better country than fifteen years ago. Indeed, Brazil is a much safer place, with a striving economy and a growing international agenda. But I also said that the cost of living is exceptionally high, the currency overvalued –which benefits the urban rich that love to travel abroad –and the police too close to the interests of the rich and powerful.

Since then, the country has been headline news. The riots in many urban centres reveal the malaise that many Brazilians experience. This malaise is a composite feeling that is fed by several streams: corruption, low politics, high cost of living, poorly performing public services and wide social disparities. In addition, life in the big cities can be extenuating just because of the time it takes to move from home to work and vice-versa.

The demonstrations also show that the urban middle class is deeply against the ruling party, Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT, President Dilma’s party. They see this party as something close to the populism prevailing in other parts of South America, a party that is too keen in taxing the better-off in order to give subsidies to the insouciant masses. For them this is not social justice, it is lefty power politics.