Farewell to President Obama

As President Obama completes his official mandate, I want to register my admiration for him as a politician. It is true there are decisions he took I would not support. Or that would make me uncomfortable. But he was by and large an inspiring leader and as humane as one can be when at the head of the most powerful country on earth.

History cannot be confused with the horizon in front of us. The short term commentary about Obama might be unfair and even harsh. We cannot be discouraged by the cruelty of immediacy and the blindness of partisanship.

We should be confident. And be convinced that history will be honest and kind to Barack Obama.

The G20 summit is appreciated

I am one of those who is convinced that meetings such as the G20 are important. It takes us nowhere to have a cynical view about these types of summits.

This year´s edition is about to begin in China. The leaders might have serious differences of opinion on key issues. There might be accrued tension between China and the West. And some opportunistic views against globalisation. But is wise to give the leaders a chance to meet on a regular basis. These platforms put pressure on them to reach compromises. And to take action together. All that contributes to a less tense international scene.

On the eve of tomorrow´s meeting, China and the US have decided to ratify the Paris agreement on Climate Change. That agreement is critical for our future. And we can only commend President Xi and President Obama for the move. They have sent a very strong signal and tremendously contribute to enhance the G20´s image.

The signal should now be picked by the Europeans. They must move very fast with their own ratification. There is no real reason for further delays. That will be good for the environment as well for their popularity at home.

Trump is a dangerous candidate

I watched Donal Trump´s speech on Orlando´s tragedy. That was the day after the heart-breaking act of extreme folly. He had hence time to organise his thoughts and decide on the messages. And what came out should be seen as a very dangerous approach to peaceful relations between diverse communities, at the domestic level, and also to international affairs. Dangerous because the speech was well delivered and could be easily understood by those who have a primary approach to life in America. And seen as convincing. Dangerous because it put across the absurd belief that Muslims in the US know about terrorist intentions and radical people but keep quiet. Dangerous because it was about open confrontation and stigmatisation. Dangerous again because it was about lies, including about the President, who has been very active in the fight against terrorism in many parts of the world, including through the controversial drone killing programme. And above all, it was a excellent reminder that Trump is a danger himself, and should not be allowed to get going without being seriously challenged, particularly by those within the leadership of his own party. 

On the G7 Summit

The G7 Summit, which has just started in Japan, has been used by President Obama to send a few darts against Donald Trump. Fine. Everything that can be done to fight Trump´s threatening campaign should be welcome. But the key issues at the meeting were not about Trump´s race towards the White House. There was a mixed vinaigrette salad on the table. Each leader came to the meeting with her or his own concerns. Japan, for instance, is more than ever worried about China. In some ways that apprehension is shared with the US, as far as it concerns the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Europe is anxious about unstoppable migration flows and their tremendous destabilising impact on the traditional way of doing politics, particularly the rise of all types of populist ideas. But the show most go on. That´s why we have these summits: they allow the leaders to pretend they are apprehensive with and responding to global matters when, in fact, they are just trying to address their own individual domestic challenges. Politics, including international affairs, remain focussed on narrow national agendas. 

Obama and the four EU leaders: a comment

President Obama, on the last day of his visit to Germany, met with Angela Markel, David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. In my opinion, he should have invited Donald Tusk as well. This would have added strength to his speeches about the EU´s relevance. Words are important and the President said the right ones. But he missed the opportunity to show he means business when supporting Europe´s unity.

The meeting lasted two hours. Most of the time was spent on the situation in Syria, including the positions that should be taken regarding the Geneva negotiating process, which is now out of the rails, and the fight against the Islamic State terrorists. On the latter, it is clear the IS has been losing ground. There is less money available, less volunteer fighters, and greater military pressure on them. The additional deployment of 250 US Special Forces, announced moments before the meeting by Obama, is also a significant development in combatting the terrorists. I hope the Germans in particular will also increase their contribution to the ground operations.

The rest of the meeting focussed on Libya. Italy and the UK are most likely to intensify their support to the recognised Libyan Prime Minister. And in addition, we should see more naval patrols off the Libyan coast soon. There are some differences of opinion about the nature of such maritime task force: should it be a NATO-led force or should it be an expansion of the current EU-sponsored naval presence? In any case, the maritime effort should be a supporting one to the actions on the ground inside Libya. The priority is on land and that means stabilising the situation in that North African country.

More about Obama in the UK debate

President Obama´s views about the Brexit are most welcome. He is very right when he says that the UK is stronger if it remains within the EU. Economically stronger and politically more influential. His words gave a tremendous boost to those who are against the exit. But the supporters of Remain have now to translate Obama´s words into their own way of speaking, give them a British accent and make use of them in a wise way. If not, those words will be lost and in some cases, they might even generate the opposite reaction. They should also be very clear in their minds that the current mood in Europe, and in particular in the UK, is not very positive about European matters. 

Obama´s strong views on the UK in the EU

President Obama´s remarks about Britain the EU are legitimate. The US is the leading ally of Europe and as such its leader should feel free to express his views about the future of Europe. It´s true that such an opinion can influence the debate in the UK. And it should, by the way.

Obama´s words were well balanced, firm but frank. The UK would be weaker and smaller in the world stage without its European link. The UK would lose by leaving. But besides its own interest, the country should also consider it has a major duty to contribute to the unity of Europe. It´s not just what the British gain or lose. It is also their contribution to a stronger Europe that is at stake. This side of the equation has been neglected so far. It is however a powerful moral argument. 

President Obama is in Cuba

President Obama´s visit to Cuba must be supported. To engage is the right way to contribute to change. That´s particularly true in this case, as the Cuban establishment is under serious domestic pressure to open up and to accept that the world is no longer what it used to be thirty or forty years ago.

It is also obvious that the road to political plurality in Cuba is not a straight one. The police pressure on dissidence is a daily fact of life in the island. Human rights are still far from being respected. But the movement has started a few years ago and it will accelerate further as the old generation of leaders is replaced by a younger one. 

American political engagement can play a major role. Many Cubans look north, when they dream about the future of their country. And many have family links with the US.

The EU has also decided to deepen the political dialogue with Habana. A new agreement on politics and cooperation was signed on 11 March 2016 between the European External Action Service, on behalf of the EU, and the Cuban government. This accord reinforces and gives more focus to the one signed in 2008.

The EU is a major commercial partner of Cuba. It is the largest foreign investor over there. But there is plenty of room for investment coming from the US. And the modernization and diversification of the Cuban economy open new opportunities for the people. Economic opportunities, of course, but also the possibility of work outside the state controlled sectors. That will end up by having an impact on liberty and freedom of speech.

On the same line, and as a necessary next step, the American embargo should be discontinued. That will another major contribution to political and social change in Cuba.

Obama´s State of the Union speech seen from Brussels

The European media treated President Obama´s State of the Union speech very kindly. The spin has indeed been very positive.

For most of us in the EU, Obama continues to be perceived as a very principled politician and also as a wise leader. People know the American economy is now stronger, jobs have been created in large numbers – 14 million new jobs during his presidency –, the unemployment rate has been cut in half and the government deficit slashed by three-quarters. Europeans also know that Obama has given priority to diplomacy and multilateralism when addressing international issues. Moreover, they feel that the US under Obama has not abandoned Europe, notwithstanding the new critical challenges America is confronted with in the Far East.

There is one more year to go before he completes his second mandate. In international politics, one year is a very short period of time. Most likely the transatlantic free trade agreement between the US and the EU – known as TTIP – wil not be completed before Obama´s departure. In many ways, the reasons for delay belong to the European side. But his name will certainly be associated to the effort to bring the two sides together in terms of free commerce. And shared commercial interests bring nations together and give them a mutual sense of confidence and security.

                                        

Obama and Xi

Excellent speech by President Obama on the occasion of the Chinese President´s visit to the White House. He said the right things about cyber security, human rights, peace and cooperation in Asia and the economic ties between the two countries.

I am sure that President Xi Jinping, who is an astute and experienced player, will reflect about what Obama has said. And his first take will be about respect. Xi might not have liked what he heard but he will recognise that the current US President is a man of courage. And my experience tells me that a genuine leader appreciates courage in politics. It is actually a rare commodity, as many prefer an opportunistic approach.

Not Obama. 

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

Obama said that Netanyahu is wrong. Very correct, indeed!

Both on the internal and external fronts, President Obama has regained the initiative. Today´s comments in support of the nuclear deal with Iran are a clear demonstration of leadership. Including his remarks about Prime Minister Netanyahu´s campaign against the accord. In a diplomatic manner the US President did acknowledge Netanyahu´s strong position but concluded by saying very clearly that the Prime Minister “is wrong”.

And indeed, he is stubbornly wrong. And he knows it, I suspect. He keeps however repeating what he has been saying about the Iran agreement because he knows that internally, in Israel, that gives him a chance to score points. As it is well known, all statements about external politics are above all for domestic political gain. 

Supporting Obama´s policy on Climate Change

I listened to President Obama´s public presentation of the US Climate Change Plan and I was impressed. It was a very convincing speech about a major policy decision that is vital for the world´s common fight for the conservation of our planet. I urge the media and the opinion makers to underline the key measures of this new plan, and to support it. Climate change is indeed a critical issue that needs to be tackled very seriously by the US, the industrialised nations and China, the latter above all. 

Happy to see the US and Cuba back on the diplomatic arena

The US and Cuba are back in the diplomatic business. The embassies are now open and the normalisation process keeps moving in the right direction. That´s good news. The next step ought to be the end of the American embargo against Cuba. It makes no sense to keep it. On the contrary, its lifting has a big chance of contributing to a faster transformation of the Cuban society and politics. My voice joins therefore all the others that call for an end of the sanctions in the very near future. 

Obama and Castro

I am telling my friends I fully support the approach President Obama has just adopted concerning Cuba.

It is time, indeed, to look at the relations with that country with the eyes of today and not with the perspective that has shaped our past.

It is easier to change the situation if we engage. Presence is influence. Presence is a launching pad to support change. And the people of Cuba are eager to see change in their country. Raul Castro understands it but he is constrained by his own personal history, his political relationships and the power base that keeps him at the head of the Party. But even he keeps stating the old things he is at the same time creating the conditions for a more democratic and more prosperous Cuba. We should be able to understand that. 

President Obama´s Ebola call is vital

The decision taken by President Obama regarding the deployment of about 3,000 military personnel to Liberia to help the country to fight Ebola is a game changer. It has placed the epidemic in its true context as a grave menace to the political stability of the country and the neighbouring states, as well as a major human security threat. It is the survival of the entire region that is at stake, its peace and unity.

Ebola, as I have said in these pages in the recent past and also in my Portuguese language columns, is much more than a public health challenge. It has, of course, health dimensions that none can ignore. It is destroying very fragile national health systems, as it is already the case in Liberia. But it is above all a national and regional security threat for West Africa.

The countries concerned need all the help they can get.

Unfortunately, very few countries outside the region are taking the issue with the attention it requires. Maybe that will change a bit now that the US President has given Ebola the prominence it requires.

Time to be wiser

Gas supplies from Russia remain a key trump card. We should not forget it. And since yesterday, this option seems less improbable than before.

 But the signs remain very confusing. There is, in many quarters, a clear intention to de-escalate. I also see the opposite, among many influential people. People that believe it is time to go for a fight.

An agreement is better than conflict.

However, capitulation is not the same as an agreement. An agreement is based on concessions on both sides. On being able to demonstrate that conflict is too costly to both sides.

Unfortunately, we are not yet at that stage. We still believe that we can carry the argument without taking into account the other side´s interests. And vice versa. The other side is still convinced they will manage to impose their views.

It´s therefore time for the elders to come up with a wiser view of the relationship. It is time for a dialogue road map. 

To neutralise Islamic State terrorists is a priority

It is urgent to pull together an international response to the Islamic State terrorists. This is no time for further hesitation, for soul-searching strategies, for non-critical political considerations.

The key move at this stage is to form a coalition of like-minded states – that excludes Assad´s government and Iran – and agree on what needs to be done to neutralise the threat. Among other things, it is important to share intelligence on key IS leaders, on convoys and deployments, on depots, and make a much greater use of offensive drones. To contain and destroy should be the key objectives. 

Striking ISIS is a good decision

President Obama´s decision to strike ISIS extremists in Northern Iraq should be supported by a large number of opinion-makers. It is time to say no to that type of medieval savagery as the one implemented by these fanatics.

This is a good point for the current administration in Washington at a time when the same administration has been losing credibility because of their vacillating position regarding Israel´s violations of international law and the lunacy of Hamas´s political decisions.

Putin is helping the EU to unite on the external front

The relations between the EU and the US, on one side, and Russia, on the other side, have now reached a point that brings the world back three decades at least. There is a very serious level of tension between the two blocs. President Putin, who has some friends in Europe, never thought that the mistrust that has been growing in certain circles in the West would go as far as it went today, with the approval of a new set of financial sanctions against Russia´s economic interests in Europe. He misread the politics. Europe needs a glue. Putin is, in many ways, providing it.