Venezuela: mediation, mediation, mediation

Today’s situation in Venezuela moved a step closer to national tragedy.

Very concerned, the UN Secretary-General called for both Government and opposition forces to exercise “maximum restraint”. That is a necessary call.

But certainly not enough.

It is a passive reaction to a major development in the Venezuelan crisis. Antonio Guterres should also be offering his mediation authority. Mediation between both sides remains the only peaceful opening, the only hope to avoid additional loss of life and humanitarian suffering.

 I know the big bosses in Washington do not want to hear that word, mediation. They are simply betting on Maduro’s total defeat. But the Secretary-General cannot just pay attention to Washington. He is the voice of the world and the standard-bearer of common sense. His duty is to be at the service of peace. For that, he must underline in very clear terms that the UN good offices are the most reasonable way forward as far as Venezuela’s future is concerned.  

Hanoi or Venezuela: better, Hanoi!

For the US leadership, all the attention must be focused on the Hanoi summit. The meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim is the week’s highlight. It must be seen and reported as excellent. Venezuela cannot be a distraction. There will be some diplomatic tightening, some additional isolation of Nicolas Maduro, a couple or so of rambunctious statements and sound bites, but nothing else. Nothing that could steal the headlines from Donald Trump in Hanoi.

Unless the Hanoi meeting goes wrong. It’s not expected, it has been prepared with great attention to sound good. But we never know. It could derail. Then, the usual suspects will be looking for a distraction, for other news that could grab the world’s attention. And that kind of news could be some foolish action regarding the situation in Venezuela.

The Venezuela plan

All the signs seem to indicate that there is a plan to deal with Maduro and the power struggle in Venezuela. That plan can only come from people that have a lot of experience with scene setting and related strategic moves. Where do we find such people? And, second question, how legitimate is such a plan? And, final key question: can it work in a political environment like the one we presently have in Venezuela?

Let’s see what the next few days bring in our direction. And at what cost.

Venezuela today: deeper into crisis

The complex crisis Venezuela is going through today has reached a new level of perilousness. Taking into consideration what I have seen in comparable situations – comparable, true, but I know that every crisis has its unique features – we are now closer to an open clash between the two camps.

It is obvious we do not know what is going on in the planning rooms, and what kind of bridging initiatives might be under way. The impression is that there has been a lot of secret planning and no real effort to bridge the opposing parties. It is also palpable that both sides might still be betting on an escalation. They seem to have reached that stage in a confrontation when leaders think that it is time to defeat the other side. To use force. 

That’s why it is now important to express extreme apprehension and add to that a call for mediation by those who are still able to play such a role. An urgent call.

Venezuela needs a credible mediation process

There are a few crisis situations in the world that must be seen as requiring urgent attention. Venezuela is certainly one of them. And, in terms of response, mediation is the word. It is necessary to find a mediation mechanism that could be accepted by both sides, meaning the Maduro camp and the Guaidó supporters.

Nicolás Maduro has asked the Pope to lead such mediation. It is true that the Catholic Church could play a facilitating role. But the other side has not expressed the same kind of appeal. Basically, they believe that Maduro´s presidency is not legitimate and, therefore, he must go without any concession being made. That position should be helped to evolve as rapidly as possible.

The United Nations could also be approached. Yet, I think Maduro sees the UN as too close to the Western interests. In the circumstances, the UN Secretary-General should take the initiative and be in personal contact with both leaders. The UN has a lot of experienced people in the field of mediation. And it could also work closely with the Vatican and offer a join platform for negotiations. Countries in the EU should send a message about the UN’s potential.

It’s equally critical that Maduro understands that there is a way forward for him and his family. The other side must leave a gate open for a dignified solution. It’s a mistake to try to push Maduro and his camp against the wall. That would make any bridging effort fail and it could easily bring mass violence instead a negotiated solution.

The mediation agenda would be defined by the parties. That’s how it should be. But I can guess it would certainly include issues such as the shape of the political transition, who would chair it, the organization of credible elections, the role of the armed forces and the police, as well as amnesty matters.

Maduro's days

The Venezuela standoff goes on. Time plays against Nicolás Maduro. He sees what remains of his authority being eroded with the passing of the days. He knows that, I believe, and is certainly preparing a heavy-handed response. And that’s the main danger at this stage: serious loss of lives.

Maduro also understands that the current context is different and not very favourable to him. The opposition is united. They have a charismatic and widely accepted leader. There is regional and international support to the new leader. Moreover, the regional rapport of forces is no longer what it used to be: now there is Bolsonaro next door, and the countries of the region are against him, except for Mexico, Cuba and Bolivia. And there has been a serious deterioration of the hardships most of the population is confronted with. The circumstances are playing against Maduro.

But he is still in the Miraflores Presidential Palace. And he has the support of his generals and admirals. That is important. The question is about the support of the lower ranking officers within the armed forces. That’s one of the keys to unlock the crisis.

Venezuela needs a domestic settlement

Venezuela is again a huge headline in the international agenda. And this time, the situation is extremely delicate. The country is at the hedge of major internal violent conflict.

The positions of the different Sates in Latin America and elsewhere must therefore be very clear.

It’s obvious that the last presidential elections have no credibility. As such, Nicolás Maduro cannot claim any legitimacy. He can claim power, as many dictators usually do, because he controls the armed forces and the police. The armed forces are now in charge of the oil business and that’s the reason why they still support Maduro and his regime. But many in the ranks know that the people to whom they belong, the grassroots men and women, are under enormous stress and just struggling to cope with poverty and the lack of very basic goods. This has nothing to do with imperialist forces in the outside world. It has to do with Maduro’s madness and crazy approach to the national economy.  

The EU has taken a view on the crisis that is very reasonable. It has called for a full respect for the National Assembly´s decisions and for the integrity of its leader, Juan Guaidó. It has called for proper elections to be organised. That’s fine, but how to organise them, in a way that meets internationally accepted criteria, that’s the impossible question. Elections are indeed the way forward, but I do not see them coming soon.

The most immediate step is to see how to stop a very likely escalation of violence. That’s, for me, the most urgent issue.

In the meantime, the US has said they do accept Maduro’s decision about the end of their diplomatic relations. That’s understandable. But Washington should however withdraw its diplomatic staff from Caracas. To keep them there opens a new opportunity to fire up violence, this time against the embassy personnel. And that could be an excuse for an American intervention that nobody wants. An outside military intervention would be a major mistake. It should be clear that it is not under preparation and that no action will be taken to try to justify it.

The people of Venezuela has now suffered enough. They need to find a domestic solution to their crisis.

Brazil´s democracy

The Brazilian politics are again in a mess. And beyond the surface, the key issue is related to widespread corruption among the different layers of the country´s political class. Dynasties of politicians just try to take advantage of public office. For them, politics is about personal gain, more than anything else.

Now, the impeachment process of President Dilma Rousseff adds extra fuel to an ongoing crisis. Dilma has made some important political mistakes and has lost popular support. Part of those faux pas are related to corruption as well. She has tolerated illegal actions carried out by some of those close to her inner circle. But she has above all come to personify another feature of the Brazilian politics: ineptitude.

Incompetence cannot be a reason to impeach a president. If that was the case, many in many parts of the world would be kicked out of office well before the end of their mandates.

It might however happen in today´s Brazil. It seems too late for Dilma to be able to stop the slide.

If it happens, one should regret it. But, at the same time, one could recognise the strength of the constitutional set up as the institutional processes are allowed to follow their course in Brazil. We cannot say the same about other countries in Brazil´s neighbourhood. Brazil might be in the middle of a political carnival. But its democracy is stronger than many around it. 

President Obama is in Cuba

President Obama´s visit to Cuba must be supported. To engage is the right way to contribute to change. That´s particularly true in this case, as the Cuban establishment is under serious domestic pressure to open up and to accept that the world is no longer what it used to be thirty or forty years ago.

It is also obvious that the road to political plurality in Cuba is not a straight one. The police pressure on dissidence is a daily fact of life in the island. Human rights are still far from being respected. But the movement has started a few years ago and it will accelerate further as the old generation of leaders is replaced by a younger one. 

American political engagement can play a major role. Many Cubans look north, when they dream about the future of their country. And many have family links with the US.

The EU has also decided to deepen the political dialogue with Habana. A new agreement on politics and cooperation was signed on 11 March 2016 between the European External Action Service, on behalf of the EU, and the Cuban government. This accord reinforces and gives more focus to the one signed in 2008.

The EU is a major commercial partner of Cuba. It is the largest foreign investor over there. But there is plenty of room for investment coming from the US. And the modernization and diversification of the Cuban economy open new opportunities for the people. Economic opportunities, of course, but also the possibility of work outside the state controlled sectors. That will end up by having an impact on liberty and freedom of speech.

On the same line, and as a necessary next step, the American embargo should be discontinued. That will another major contribution to political and social change in Cuba.

Brazil´s politics might get closer to the Venezuela´s model

Two days later, the situation I described in the previous post about the Brazilian crisis has reached a new level of political immorality. Lula da Silva has indeed been sworn in as super minister, some kind of premiership equivalent position, just to see his appointment cancelled by a federal court. That judicial decision has further weakened President Dilma Rousseff´s standing as well. Her credibility got a new serious blow.

The crisis is now so deep that it will be very difficult for Dilma to keep the presidency for much longer. But she will not go without a real fight. Dilma wants to bring the issue to the streets and have one side of the population confronting the other side. That will give her some grounds to say that if she goes there will be civil unrest. She will try to grasp that last straw. But the problem is more complex. Brazil is deeply divided, the political actors have no moral authority and we can expect extreme manifestations of discontent. In some sense, Brazil could become a lighter copy of the chaos that is occurring in Venezuela. 

Brazil: moving fast in the wrong direction

The political crisis in Brazil is deteriorating fast. President Dilma Rousseff´s decision to appoint former head of State Lula da Silva as a senior Cabinet minister has contributed to a new level of malaise. People cannot understand this attempt to extract Lula from a regular judicial scrutiny.

And there are new revelations about corruption within the inner circle of power.

The pursuit of the impeachment process is now more likely. And we can also expect some additional desperate moves from Dilma´s side.

All this will bring additional deep fractures among Brazilians and further economic difficulties. The country will be in a very bad shape at a time it should be at its best to host the Olympic Games. But that´s only a lesser detail. The true challenge will be to repair the great damage that all this corruption will cause to Brazil´s self-respect and its international image. 

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

EU is meeting the Latin American States

As I am about to witness another summit meeting in Brussels, this time with Latin American leaders, I also realise that Latin America does not feature high in terms of the EU priorities. As such, I wonder what will come out of such meeting. Is it more than a mere diplomatic move?

In the meantime, I take note that the EU-Latin America consultation will be immediately followed by a summit with Mexico. And again, I am curious about the possible outcome of that conference.

In any case, enhanced relations with Latin America will give leverage to Spain´s position with the EU. Somehow, Portugal will gain a bit as well. That’s not a bad thing as it contributes to a greater balance between the different nations in Europe. 

Dilma´s challenges

Dilma Rousseff has been re-elected President of Brazil. It was a tough campaign and many people in the country thought she would not make it. She had created quite a number of die-hard opponents, particularly among the urban middle class and the riches segments of the nation. But the country remains above all a socially divided society, with large numbers of very poor and excluded people. They are the ones that constitute the electoral basis of Dilma. And to be frank, it is better they feel represented. That´s Dilma´s card. But it is also the card of all those who are better off. They cannot afford to have a large number of people below the poverty line and dis-empowered. It is not safe, it is not a solid ground for stability.

Dilma´s job now is to respond to the aspirations of the largest number of people including those that have voted against her and do not like her administration at all. She has to be seen as inclusive, and able to fight corruption. But above all, she has to be seen as a leader that can promote growth and greater equality in a country that is not growing fast enough, notwithstanding its possibilities, and that is deeply unequal. Can she do the job?

   

Dilma´s political future is at stake

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil´s head of State, is fighting for her political future.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place in about eleven days, on October 26. The odds are playing against Dilma. Her party has been in power for the last twelve years. It is strongly embedded in the administrative apparatus and it has also a solid support in the poorer segments of the country. But at a time of economic slowdown, as it is today the case in Brazil, when public resources have become scarcer, it is easy to put the blame on the government and vote against those in power. On top of that, large sectors of the urban and better educated Brazilians are today against Dilma´s party and her control of the administrative machinery. They are basically afraid of Dilma´s interventionist policies, of new taxes, and they want change.

In many ways, the Brazilian society is today much polarised. And less solidary. Class plays a defining role. And individualism, personal success, is also a common trait in a country that prides itself for its self-made men and women. Many do not understand the social policies Dilma´s party has implemented in favour of the poor.

All that runs objectively against a candidate that is identified with a strong option for a more redistributive social policy.

I am afraid Dilma might be the loser at the end of the day, on the 26^th. 

Argentinian blues...

Argentina is again in the midst of economic and financial chaos. People are desperate and the country seems to be directionless.

I raised the issue this morning as part of my regular discussions with some people at the centre of European decision making. I was told, in very direct and brief words, that Argentina matters very little in international affairs. If they have a problem – and they do have some very serious ones, I thought to myself –then it is up to them to sort them out.

I believe that´s what people call internationalist realism…

Prying eyes

President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil said that her planned visit to the US can only go ahead if she receives a clear explanation from President Obama regarding the spying accusations. Indeed, the US seems to have been snooping on the Brazilian President –and others, such as the Mexican head of State. This is certainly a very unfriendly action and one understands Dilma’s position. It is the only acceptable response.

But in diplomacy realism tends to prevail. She will receive some type of assurances from Obama. Then, she will say the US has apologised and the visit will move on. That’s fine. By then, the point would have been clearly stated. The question will however remain: one cannot envisage an American administration that is not “watching” under cover what the two main rivals of the US in Latin America are cooking. Washington will say sorry, and then change the system and will continue the old practise. It is in their blood and in their own interest, as they see it.

It is up to Brazil and others to keep protesting and keep saying this is not acceptable.  And to try to protect itself from prying eyes.