Putin´s litmus test

The new Minsk agreement will be in many ways the litmus test about President Putin´s sincerity. I really hope he will come out of it with high marks, as someone true to his word. The moment is grave and we cannot afford to have deeper crisis with Russia. They actually cannot afford either. So, let´s be hopeful about the ceasefire even we hear quite a number of voices expressing their doubts. We need the Minsk agreement to hold. 

Ukraine: the diplomatic front should be supported

The joint diplomatic initiative taken by François Hollande and Angela Merkel, who decided to fly to Kiev today and then to Moscow, should be supported. It is true that it gives us a measure of the seriousness of the current situation in Eastern Ukraine. But it is the best response to a fast deteriorating conflict. It also comes at a time when Vladimir Putin seems to be ready to talk. The sides might be far apart, no doubt. But negotiations never take place when things are going well. They happen when the costs of further fighting become too high. And also when the possibility of an uncontrolled escalation is around the corner. We have both at present. Therefore, let´s give diplomacy a chance. And the first step has to be an agreement on a ceasefire. Both sides should accept the status quo and freeze the war. Then, negotiations could start and take the time they might require to achieve a durable settlement.

Let´s hope. Let´s also be clear that the continuation of the existing offensive cannot be accepted and must stop. 

A plane too much

The shooting-down of the Malaysia Airlines plane is clearly the work of the separatists Russia supports in Ukraine.

The tragedy brings in two points: Russia has to stop its backing of these individuals; and the Kiev government has to assess its own capability to deal with the rebels. If the assessment concludes that the government forces cannot resolve the crisis in the very near future, then the solution is to ask for help from Ukraine´s friends. The point is that the armed violence has lasted for too long and should therefore be resolved without further ado. 

Ukraine´s window of opportunity is now

I sense there is a little but encouraging window of opportunity to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine. Tomorrow´s meetings in Vienna, where President Putin has arrived today, could offer a chance for a peace road map. I think that the Swiss have been particularly active in trying to bring Putin and the other parties together, including the new Head of State of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. The Swiss Confederation President, Didier Burkhalter, has also travelled to Vienna this morning. His discussions with the Russian leader tomorrow are something that should be carefully watched.