A non-event in Bratislava

For me, the most striking facet of yesterday´s EU summit in Bratislava is clear: it was non-event in terms of the European public opinion. The EU citizens took no notice of it. And that should be a good reason to be worried. At a time of mediocrity and obscurity, when everyone is looking for answers and strategies that could make sense, the heads of State and govern were once more unable to go beyond banalities and piecemeal promises. And, as usual, they announced that it will at the next big summit, this time in March 2017 in Rome, that everything will become clear. 

The 2016 G7 Summit is over

This year´s G7 Summit, just completed in Japan, made no history. It was hardly noticed by the European public opinion, just to mention those close to home. Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commission President made some brief references to the steel dispute with China, on top of mentioning that the European economy is now much better than in 2008 and that it is moving in a healthy direction. Well, that´s good to know. Donald Tusk, the EU Council President, said a couple of things as well, but no one remembers a word of it. And that was basically the European side of the story, because Merkel, Hollande and Renzi were too concerned about their own domestic problems to be able to fly higher than their national contexts.

Moreover, there was a small number of heads of State from non-G7 countries at the tail end of the summit. They were certainly very happy to sit with the big people and be part of the group picture. But their contribution to the discussions remains unclear. Most likely, to them as well.

Obama and the four EU leaders: a comment

President Obama, on the last day of his visit to Germany, met with Angela Markel, David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. In my opinion, he should have invited Donald Tusk as well. This would have added strength to his speeches about the EU´s relevance. Words are important and the President said the right ones. But he missed the opportunity to show he means business when supporting Europe´s unity.

The meeting lasted two hours. Most of the time was spent on the situation in Syria, including the positions that should be taken regarding the Geneva negotiating process, which is now out of the rails, and the fight against the Islamic State terrorists. On the latter, it is clear the IS has been losing ground. There is less money available, less volunteer fighters, and greater military pressure on them. The additional deployment of 250 US Special Forces, announced moments before the meeting by Obama, is also a significant development in combatting the terrorists. I hope the Germans in particular will also increase their contribution to the ground operations.

The rest of the meeting focussed on Libya. Italy and the UK are most likely to intensify their support to the recognised Libyan Prime Minister. And in addition, we should see more naval patrols off the Libyan coast soon. There are some differences of opinion about the nature of such maritime task force: should it be a NATO-led force or should it be an expansion of the current EU-sponsored naval presence? In any case, the maritime effort should be a supporting one to the actions on the ground inside Libya. The priority is on land and that means stabilising the situation in that North African country.

Happy New Year and bring confidence back

As we start the New Year, we also realise that one the great challenges ahead, as far as the European leaders are concerned, is to regain their credibility. They have to take into account that public opinion is a strategic variable in matters of politics. And they have to endeavour to get the voters ‘confidence back. That should be the main topic of discussion in the political circles as we get into the first working week of 2016.

In the meantime, and just as an example, let me refer that Le Figaro´s edition of today organised a poll on President Hollande´s New Year Message. The daily newspaper got close to 46 thousand responses to the question. 92% of the readers said the message was not convincing. That´s an incredible negative reaction. It´s true that most of those who read Le Figaro are rather on the opposite side of Hollande´s politics. But still, such a percentage is just too revealing: political confidence is one way avenue. Once lost, it is almost impossible to recover.

Just to complement, on this same day another survey has shown that 3 out of every 4 French citizens do not wish either Hollande or Sarkozy to run for the presidency in 2017.

2016 is indeed a very promising year on the leadership side of politics.

COP21: good news!

Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, has been an excellent chair of the Paris Climate Change Conference. Tonight´s global agreement on an action plan is in many ways due to his wise leadership of the COP21 meeting. As we celebrate the agreement that has been reached we should also recognise the work the minister has done during the last two weeks.

And this is good news for the world, for the future and also good news for the French government. François Hollande´s government has been a weak player on the European front. Today´s success brings a little bit of lustre to Hollande and his team. That´s important as the prestige of France is one of the key elements that contributes to a more balanced Europe. 

Spying on friends

Friends do not spy on friends. No government, including the US, is authorised to tap the communications of its allied nations’ leaders. This is a very basic principle of healthy alliances.

Keeping this in mind, I fully understand the anger President François Hollande has expressed today when he learned that he, and those before him at the Elysée Palace, have been spied upon by the intelligence services of the US.

Let´s also hope that France is not doing it elsewhere as well. 

Strategic communications are essential and part of the solution

The EU public opinion matters a lot. People have access to lots of information but the average citizen is still very much influenced by what they watch on TV.

My sense is that the leaders are not communicating well on Greece´s crisis. This is a very sensitive matter that can be easily exploited by any camp that promotes populism, and radicalism, and opposes the EU. It can also weaken further the fragile feeling of common interests.

Every leader has his or her part of responsibility. National leaders should address their national audiences and explain what is at stake and the choices that are being made. Juncker and Tusk, in Brussels, they have likewise to step forward and talk about the issue in a way that goes beyond the sound bites and a patronizing approach. It´s very much their call.  

Tunisia should count with the European support

The popular rally against terrorism that today brought thousands of people to the main avenues of the Tunisian capital should be seen as a sign of hope. I am also pleased to see François Hollande and Matteo Renzi among the crowd. European leaders have to be seen as supporting the struggle of the Tunisian people against all types of violent extremists. 

France is a pillar of the European project, it cannot fail

There has been, in the EU circles, serious concern about France´s political future and its impact on the European project. The rise of extremist parties, in particular the Front National, has left many people very worried. More so, in view of President Hollande´s poor leadership. He is definitely considered as too weak and incapable of fighting for a stronger Europe. Not even for a more proactive France within the European project.

But tonight, as the preliminary results of the French regional elections become known, there is a bit of hope. The Front National seems to be close to its electoral ceiling of 25%. And both Sarkozy´s party, on the right, and Hollande´s PS, are ahead of the Front. That´s good news. 

Putin´s litmus test

The new Minsk agreement will be in many ways the litmus test about President Putin´s sincerity. I really hope he will come out of it with high marks, as someone true to his word. The moment is grave and we cannot afford to have deeper crisis with Russia. They actually cannot afford either. So, let´s be hopeful about the ceasefire even we hear quite a number of voices expressing their doubts. We need the Minsk agreement to hold. 

Ukraine: the diplomatic front should be supported

The joint diplomatic initiative taken by François Hollande and Angela Merkel, who decided to fly to Kiev today and then to Moscow, should be supported. It is true that it gives us a measure of the seriousness of the current situation in Eastern Ukraine. But it is the best response to a fast deteriorating conflict. It also comes at a time when Vladimir Putin seems to be ready to talk. The sides might be far apart, no doubt. But negotiations never take place when things are going well. They happen when the costs of further fighting become too high. And also when the possibility of an uncontrolled escalation is around the corner. We have both at present. Therefore, let´s give diplomacy a chance. And the first step has to be an agreement on a ceasefire. Both sides should accept the status quo and freeze the war. Then, negotiations could start and take the time they might require to achieve a durable settlement.

Let´s hope. Let´s also be clear that the continuation of the existing offensive cannot be accepted and must stop. 

Sweden´s political agreement is an excellent example for others

The political agreement reached in Sweden by the mainstream parties deserves a special reference. It brings stability to the country´s governance, without weakening each party´s identity and electoral ambitions, and sends the nationalist extremists to a corner of the political scene. It shows a very high degree of political maturity on both sides, the centre-left and the centre-right. And it based on a long-term commitment to continuity of policies in key areas of sovereignty, such as defence and foreign affairs.

It is, in many ways, a piece of good news in Europe, at the end of the year. It could become an example for other EU countries, such as France, where there is a serious risk of seeing the right wing extremists in power in the near future. The moderate leaders should learn from the Swedish case that there is a time, meaning when the risks are higher and the economic situation is precarious, that national unity against fascists and extremists should be the top priority for the centre parties, left and right. 2015 should, in many aspects, be a year dedicated at stopping the radicals in Europe. 

Hollande and Putin: a good move

President François Hollande´s stop in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin was certainly a smart diplomatic move. In international affairs, when there is a crisis, dialogue and personal, eye-to-eye contact are much better options than public statements and speeches.

You might ask what has come out of today´s meeting. Well, the answer is very simple: a clear message that the West considers that the partnership with Russia is critically important for both sides. Such a message should also keep the lines open. And we must have good quality lines to be able to engage in a productive conversation. Clarity comes out of exchanges of views.

It also comes out of lengthy meetings. In today´s case, two hours of discussions when only one hour was scheduled says a lot about the complexity of the dialogue that is needed. 

The leader provides the answers

When everyone has access to all types of sources of information and when opinions are shaped in seconds, through headlines, sound bites and quick-passing images, it becomes very difficult to be an accepted political leader. One has to be very clear about the kind of persona one wants to project, taking into account the support basis one aims to build. It is a never ending effort. The political leader is always in the public eye and cannot let his or her attention relax. It is also exhausting. That´s probably the reason why leaders come and go so fast. They are out of gasp before too long.

I thought about all this today again as I saw the latest figures about President François Hollande´s popularity. He is at a very low point. I think his case will be, sooner or later, the subject of a major academic thesis that will seek to understand how it was possible for a French head of State to sink so fast in the public opinion.

I also thought about leadership when I saw the reports about Ed Miliband, the boss of the Labour Party in the UK. He is confronted with serious criticism about his lack of leadership charisma. His detractors say basically that he cannot connect with the common person on the street. Connecting with people is essential. But what does it mean exactly? It is certainly about creating a relationship of trust. But confidence is not enough. One has to be perceived as the one that can provide the answers to the many interrogations people have today. And that´s particularly important at a time of uncertainties. And at present there are plenty of them in our part of the world. 

UK on the way out of the EU

I am getting the impression that in Brussels many think that the UK´s exit from the EU is just a matter of time. Prime Minister Cameron has opened a Pandora box. He and the rest of the existing political leadership seem too weak, too uncharismatic to be able to stop the slide in the public opinion. It will be an uphill struggle to change the trend. The genie will not jump back into the bottle.  

Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name. 

Boko Haram in Paris

Today´s summit on Boko Haram, convened at the Elysée Palace by President François Hollande, should be seen as a constructive initiative. 

The concrete results in terms of fighting the Nigerian terrorist group might be very tiny. But it had some other advantages.

 It kept the pressure on the President of Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan must take the issue with a greater degree of seriousness. 

It also showed that the countries in the region – particularly Cameroon and Chad – must be fully engaged and cooperate among themselves. This is lacking. Especially as it concerns Cameroon. North Cameroon – an area I know relatively well – is a forgotten region, when seen from the capital Yaoundé. This has to change. The Cameroonians have to increase their police and armed forces presence in the North. They have also to be prepared to cooperate with Nigeria and Chad. 

The summit has also emphasized that the problem requires international cooperation if it is to be tackled without further delay. France can certainly play a role on the French-speaking side of the region. The UK has to be more involved on the Nigerian side. And French and British intelligence services have to work hand in hand on the ground and be willing to treat the African counterparts as equals.

All this is a bit of an ambition. Not easy to achieve. But it has to be said. And the pressure has to go on.

We will see what progress will be reported as accomplished when the ministers meet for a follow-up conference next month in the UK. 

Europe´s future requires cooperation among the states

Le Monde printed this afternoon with tomorrow´s date has a very important opinion editorial by François Hollande about Europe´s future. The French President´s views are very clear: the continuation of the common European project means peace and will bring prosperity; on the contrary, the ultra-nationalism and the return to national borders carries with it the seeds of conflict among the different European nations; it is also a serious menace to the continuation of the common currency, which means a return to devalued and 

unstable national currencies; it is a move back to poverty and underdeveloped economies.

And the President shows he is very concerned with the current trends that run against Europe. The project cannot move if the people are not in support. And he sees that we are facing a serious risk that can easily undermine the survival of a joint aspiration and shared interests. He sees, with great concern, a continuing deterioration of the popular support to the Euro and the EU.

It is a good text. It should certainly be made available in other languages besides French. In the current atmosphere, when the nationalists are getting ground, it is critical to present a different view.

It is actually a very simple, and also very correct view. Europe needs to unite and cooperate better among its member states if it still aspires to play a role in the global world we live in. That´s the only reasonable way forward. The rest is just demagoguery. 

Time to keep visiting Ukraine

US Vice-President Biden´s visit sends a very strong message. Now, it is time for the EU leaders to start visiting Ukraine as well. 

The demise of traditional parties is now a serious prospect

The French have decided to vote against the government candidates on today´s local elections. But above all, they have decided to abstain from voting. Over 16 million said no by keeping themselves far away from the polling stations. Basically, this shows that the traditional parties can no longer be seen as the political vehicles people´s aspirations. The citizens, all over the place, in France and elsewhere in Europe, are deeply dissatisfied with the way professional politicians behave.

That´s probably the reason why they have elected, in Slovakia, an outsider to be the country´s next president. The prime-minister, a long standing figure in national politics, was just defeat by a businessman.

On this same day, the British media has printed the results of the latest opinion survey. The Labour Party is just one percentage point ahead the governing Conservatives. This happens notwithstanding the very erratic policies the Conservative government – the Tories – have tried to implement, with less than convincing results, during the last three years. People in Britain are also running away from the old parties. Unfortunately they are moving their support to UKIP, the Independence Party of Nigel Farage, a good speaker who manages to hide some of his racist ideas behind some demagogic policies. UKIP is rapidly becoming the third force in British politics. This is a major feat because the system there is constructed in such a way that it gives very little chances to any alternative to Labour and Tory parties. If the British voter is going UKIP that shows how discontent she or he is with the current system.

And more examples could be found throughout the EU.