The referendum outcome

My intention is to write these words before the first results start coming out of the British polling stations. Just to say that for many weeks I thought –and anguished – the exit response would win the day and the UK would vote for the exit from the EU. And then, during the last couple of days or so, I began to believe that the Remain vote could gain the upper hand. And I am still convinced that will be the case.

In a few hours, I will know the answer to my guess. 

A divided Britain

I watched this evening´s BBC debate on the UK´s European referendum. And I was very impressed by two of the Remain supporters: the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, a Labour politician, and the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson. They are excellent debaters and, being still relatively young, they are rising stars. Both will certainly have a lot to contribute to their country´s political life. Their main opponent was Boris Johnson, the Conservative sacred bull, a very well informed and smart fellow, and also an excellent orator. But he comes out as disingenuous, as someone who is above all self-centred and concerned with taking advantage of any opportunity to advance his own ambitions.

The debate was a bitter one. This has been an extremely divisive time for the UK. It has turned political friends into acrimonious enemies. Whatever the outcome of the vote on Thursday – I hope it will be in favour of keeping the EU membership – the British political landscape will come out radically changed. A new type of alliances will be formed within the key political parties. And half of the country will feel terribly left behind. That´s certainly not good. 

Brexit and the bookies´game

The British bookmakers are witnessing a switch in the bets towards the Brexit. In the last two days, over 70% of the new bets were placed on Britain leaving the EU. This is the new trend. Up to now, most of the game was about smart money going to Remain. That´s changing. But it is also true that there is still a good number of voters that say they are undecided when they answer to polls on the referendum. They represent about 11% of those surveyed. They will make the difference. The campaigns are targeting them as well as those who might feel lazy on the polling day and therefore decide to stay home. All in all, at this stage the risk of a Brexit is real. And Brussels is now getting very nervous about it. Including the British officials employed in the EU institutions.

On the Brexit high risk

Here, in Europe, the agenda for the next three weeks should be focussed on the British referendum. There is a serious risk of Brexit. To think otherwise is dramatically foolish.

This type of vote, this referendum, is not about the economy. The economic arguments are certainly very compelling and strongly support the Remain position, but they are not the key consideration people keep in mind when deciding about their choice. This is about the most irrational part of emotive politics, it´s about nationalistic feelings and myths, and the old time believe that the British are different from the other Europeans. It has to be dealt with at that level of passion. With strong political arguments, and a clear response to the prevailing prejudices. That´s not easy. The Brexit talk is much easier, much closer to many of the existing phantoms that populate a good number of minds. And that´s why the risk is so high. 

More about Obama in the UK debate

President Obama´s views about the Brexit are most welcome. He is very right when he says that the UK is stronger if it remains within the EU. Economically stronger and politically more influential. His words gave a tremendous boost to those who are against the exit. But the supporters of Remain have now to translate Obama´s words into their own way of speaking, give them a British accent and make use of them in a wise way. If not, those words will be lost and in some cases, they might even generate the opposite reaction. They should also be very clear in their minds that the current mood in Europe, and in particular in the UK, is not very positive about European matters.