A divided Britain

I watched this evening´s BBC debate on the UK´s European referendum. And I was very impressed by two of the Remain supporters: the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, a Labour politician, and the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson. They are excellent debaters and, being still relatively young, they are rising stars. Both will certainly have a lot to contribute to their country´s political life. Their main opponent was Boris Johnson, the Conservative sacred bull, a very well informed and smart fellow, and also an excellent orator. But he comes out as disingenuous, as someone who is above all self-centred and concerned with taking advantage of any opportunity to advance his own ambitions.

The debate was a bitter one. This has been an extremely divisive time for the UK. It has turned political friends into acrimonious enemies. Whatever the outcome of the vote on Thursday – I hope it will be in favour of keeping the EU membership – the British political landscape will come out radically changed. A new type of alliances will be formed within the key political parties. And half of the country will feel terribly left behind. That´s certainly not good. 

Our European problems and Cameron´s

There is very little time, these days, to think about David Cameron and his conditions for the UK to remain within the EU.

France and Marine Le Pen´s initial electoral victory are taking a lot of the attention span available. And there are good reasons for that. Le Pen´s race to power needs to be stopped. And the concerns of her voters must be responded to at the same time. These are two immense jobs. They concern not only the French but all those in the vicinity who believe in a united Europe.

Then, there is the fight against terrorism. The key issue is to devise approaches that could effectively prevent the radicalisation of some young Europeans. There is a lot of debate about the issue of radicalisation but not enough concrete ideas on how to tackle it. The competition for new ideas is open.

The immigration issue is still unresolved. That adds a very heavy burden to the European agenda. And the longer it takes the more complex it becomes. The first step here is to strengthen the Schengen external borders. But there are many other things that need to be dealt with, including the very serious challenge of integrating those who are already in. This task is now particularly complex in view of the current change of opinion about the massive presence of Muslim populations in the European space.

In the midst of these very critical issues the UK´s referendum looks very much like Cameron´s self-created problem. He will have to take the lead in sorting it out. He knows that his key financial masters want the UK to stay in the EU. He also understands he cannot deceive them. He has therefore to be smart and imaginative. What a challenge!

Scotland

Very encouraged by the results of the Scottish referendum. It is a good cold shower on all the blind nationalisms and opportunistic politics across the EU. It sends the message that when it matters people come to the polls and express their will with wisdom.

Indeed, this is no time for further divisions in Europe. Just the opposite. The peoples of Europe have to stick together and be strong.

But the UK has not yet won the key battle: the battle against the anti-EU rhetoric that is gaining ground in different corners of the kingdom. That´s the true challenge ahead. 

The UK is getting close to a very dangerous European crossroads.

Donald Tusk, who has just been appointed as the next President of the European Council, said at the end of the day that he cannot imagine the UE without the UK being a member. This is a wise statement. The UK´s place and future is within the Union. However, what we see more and more, in the UK, is that the populism against Europe is getting stronger and stronger. The chances of a no-vote that would force the UK to leave the EU are real. If that happens then both the UK and Europe would have lost. But that´s the nature of politics. One starts a process and then the process becomes a major avalanche. I am afraid that´s the case with the British referendum on the EU membership.

Unless Labour wins the next round of elections…but even in that case, once the dice are thrown it will be very difficult to stop the game or to nullify the outcome. 

Two different visions of the EU

Prime Minister Cameron’s speech on Europe, delivered today, should be read carefully, as it poses a number of issues that contribute to the debate about the future of the EU. It should not be dismissed as just an attempt to unite his Conservative party. Of course, it has also that objective. Many Conservatives have become very anti-EU. They think that’s the best way to be consistent with their nostalgia of a dominant Great Britain of yesteryears. And they add to that a feeling of superiority that is very deeply rooted in the British countryside and traditional elites.

Cameron understands that the EU membership is important for the UK. But as he gives in to the more conservative wing within his party he is also opening a period of uncertainty, that will have an impact on investment – a big multinational will think twice before investing in the UK from now on – and an impact on Europe. This is a matter for great concern. And it will be difficult to reach an agreement between Cameron and the other key European leaders, as both sides have very different visions about what the future of Europe should be. That’s where the real divergence lies.