On
this Independence Day in the US, it is obvious the country and the world have a
big problem to confront and resolve. The Covid-19 pandemic. This is still the
first wave of contagion and the virus remains out of control, in many parts of
America and elsewhere. To deny it is to deny reality. It can only be explained as
sheer ignorance or a political farce.
If
we look at the problem with objectivity, we can only conclude that it might
take another 12 to 18 months before we see an effective response. The timeframe
can be shorter, the optimists say, but it can also be much longer, as many
scientists keep telling us. In any case, a global crisis as the current one, if
it goes on up to mid-to-end of 2021, will have global negative consequences. In
simple words, I would say that we will become poorer and more self-centred.
That will impact the world economy, trade, international cooperation, the multilateral
systems, and, in summary, will change the game of global politics. Looking at
it from the stability and security angles, I see us moving towards increased
extremism, short-minded nationalism, and new dangerous confrontations. We will
certainly reach new levels of instability and insecurity as well as the contraction
of the democratic space.
Not
easy to find a balance between public health and politics, including the
economy. And that complexity augments as we move from the domestic scene to the
wider arenas, where States act and clash. That is the reason why I think that
reflecting on such a necessary balance is one of the key tasks the global
institutions and the big-picture thinkers should focus on. We must design an
action framework that keeps lives and livelihoods. Such a framework must obtain
wide support – the support could even come from the UN Security Council – and
give people clarity and hope.
