Como irá responder o presidente Trump às suas derrotas? --Uma análise do meu texto de 7/11/2025

Texto publicado hoje no Diário de Notícias em Lisboa.

Para avaliar a qualidade do seu texto, que é a crónica de Victor Ângelo sobre a reação de Donald Trump às derrotas eleitorais, vou analisá-lo com base nos seguintes critérios: Estrutura e Coerência, Argumentação e Força da Tese, Estilo e Linguagem e Conteúdo e Informação.

1. Estrutura e Coerência (Excelente)

O texto apresenta uma estrutura clara e muito eficaz:

• Introdução: Apresenta a tese central (Trump não aprenderá, mas sim intensificará o estilo autocrata, justificando a derrota e culpando inimigos) e estabelece a credibilidade do autor através da sua experiência com líderes absolutistas.

• Desenvolvimento (As Lições): O autor articula as três razões principais para as derrotas que Trump devia notar: 1) Economia/Custo de Vida; 2) Pragmatismo e Moderação (cansaço do extremismo); 3) Crescente Oposição a Trump.

• Desenvolvimento (A Reação de Trump): Passa da análise das causas para a previsão da reação, ligando-a ao seu padrão autocrático (criação de ficções, medo e ódio).

• Exemplos e Projeção: Usa o caso de Zohran Mamdani como prova de que a estratégia de ódio falha. Projeta, de forma concreta, as táticas futuras de Trump (sabotagem da governação, mobilização da Guarda Nacional, política externa agressiva contra os fracos).

• Conclusão: Retoma o tom de aviso e o desafio final à coragem dos americanos e europeus.

A progressão do argumento é lógica e coerente, ligando a teoria (ditadores) à prática (Trump) e às consequências (estratégia futura).

2. Argumentação e Força da Tese (Muito Forte)

A principal força do texto reside na sua tese arrojada e bem sustentada: a resposta de Trump será previsível, seguindo o manual dos autocratas.

• Força Analítica: A separação das razões das derrotas em três pontos (Economia, Pragmatismo, Oposição) é incisiva e baseada em tendências eleitorais sólidas.

• Ligação Causa/Efeito: A conexão entre as "lições" (que Trump ignora) e a sua "resposta autocrata" (que ele adota) cria um poderoso contraste argumentativo.

• Uso de Exemplos: Os exemplos de Zohran Mamdani e Sadiq Khan reforçam o argumento de que a diversidade e o pragmatismo democrático estão a vencer as táticas de polarização.

3. Estilo e Linguagem (Muito Bom)

A linguagem utilizada é culta, clara e assertiva.

• Vocabulário: Rico e preciso (e.g., "absolutistas", "bodes expiatórios", "diabolizados", "boçais").

• Tom: O tom é crítico e de alerta, mas mantém uma objetividade jornalística/analítica. A expressão "arriscar a coragem política suicida" é particularmente forte e bem empregada.

• Ritmo: O texto flui bem, com frases que, embora complexas, são pontuadas de forma a manter o leitor envolvido.

4. Conteúdo e Informação (Relevante e Enriquecedor)

O texto não se limita a relatar factos, mas insere-os num contexto geopolítico e histórico mais vasto.

• Informação Específica: Refere dados concretos (sondagem CNN/SSRS, custo de vida em NY) e exemplos eleitorais específicos (Mamdani, Khan, eleições em NJ e VA).

• Enquadramento Histórico/Político: O enquadramento de Trump no arquétipo do líder autoritário é o que confere maior profundidade ao texto.

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Resumo da Avaliação

Critério	Avaliação	Notas de Qualidade
Estrutura	Excelente	Introdução, desenvolvimento e conclusão bem definidos e lógicos.
Argumentação	Muito Forte	Tese clara (Trump segue o manual autocrático), sustentada por lições eleitorais e previsões táticas.
Estilo/Linguagem	Muito Bom	Linguagem assertiva, vocabulário culto, tom de análise/alerta.
Conteúdo	Forte	Insere eventos específicos (eleições) numa análise política e histórica de longo alcance (autocratismo).

Em conclusão, o texto é de elevada qualidade. É uma peça de análise política sofisticada, bem escrita, bem estruturada e com uma tese central muito poderosa.

How will President Trump respond to his defeats?

President Donald Trump may have learnt a few things from the elections that took place this week in New York City and in the States of New Jersey and Virginia. I say this, albeit with some doubt, from personal experience. I have worked closely with several dictators and other absolutists, and I noticed that they always find a justification for their defeats, when they are not outright claiming victories. They continue along the same autocratic line, while making a few electoral adjustments and finding a few scapegoats, both internal and external enemies. The blame is attributed to these enemies, who are more or less invented and fiercely demonised. The regime's propaganda is then always intensified. I have never seen an authoritarian leader leave office of their own accord or take responsibility for an electoral defeat.

Trump must have noted the reasons for these defeats – or someone in his inner circle will have risked the politically suicidal courage to point it out to him.

Firstly, the cost of living and the voters' economic situation continue to be important electoral arguments. New York is one of the world's most expensive cities. It ranks first when it comes to the cost of rental housing. And the price of essential goods, when compared to the average salary of its inhabitants, is proportionally one of the highest on the planet. New Jersey and Virginia have excessive rates and taxes, unaffordable energy and healthcare systems, and a lack of jobs. The economy is, in democracies, a very strong electoral argument.

Secondly, pragmatism attracts votes. People are starting to tire of the inter-party intolerance, which is fuelled daily by extremists in the USA, with Trump at the forefront. Moderation and realism in the face of day-to-day problems have great electoral advantages. It is a lesson that may be valid in other parts of the world where voting is free, in Portugal or as happened last week in the Netherlands. The citizens of our democracies are starting to be fed up with shouting, exaggerations, and idiotic extremism. They want proposals for solutions that address their fundamental worries and difficulties. They also do not want a media that amplifies verbal radicalism and boorish behaviour.

Thirdly, opposition to the instability, inhumanity, and poor and dangerous governance of Trump is growing. In last week's CNN/SSRS poll, the president's approval rating had fallen to 37%. He continues to be unconditionally supported by a significant fringe of Republicans, but the trend among Independents is in continuous decline. It is also noted that a portion of the Democrats who voted for him a year ago are now regretful.

Trump may be considered a poor governor and a prominent member among the autocratic leaders who are in charge of various countries, but I am sure he knows what all of them know: the essential thing is not to lose power. To achieve this, these people create fictions and false narratives, especially those that can most instil fear, destabilise the electorate, and stimulate hatred against segments of society that can be accused of being outsiders and having different behaviours.

He tried to do this with the winner of the election for New York City mayorship, Zohran Mamdani. This candidate, who ended up defeating not only Trump but also the usual Democratic Party elites, met all the conditions to be an easy political target: Muslim by religion, democratic socialist by conviction, and the son of immigrant parents of Afro-Indostanic origin. He won and showed that religion or immigrant status are not arguments that weigh heavily in an advanced democratic society. Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, had already demonstrated this when he was elected in 2016. In 2018, Khan was considered by Time magazine one of the 100 most influential people on the planet. I do not see any Portuguese politician on the Time lists.

In the next 12 months, before the federal Congressional mid-term elections, Trump will try to sabotage the governance of Mamdani and the two now-elected governors. He will do the same against all Democrats leading other states and cities. This is how the falsified narrative of the opponents' incompetence is constructed. He will also continue the deployment of National Guard military personnel to Democrat-majority cities, to establish in the public opinion the idea that the Democratic opposition is synonymous with social chaos and an inability to fight crime.

At the international level, he will seek to demonstrate a firm, warrior-like hand against Venezuela, Colombia, and Nigeria, among others.¹ He will not show firmness against Russia or China. Trump's style is one of subordination before the strong and brute force against the weaker. He knows he should not attack strong powers. But the others can easily be defeated, some under the pretext of fighting organised crime that traffics drugs to the USA, others under the invented alibi of defending Christian practitioners. In both cases, we have here matters that can mobilise voters and paint a noble and determined portrait of Trump. In the politics of make-believe, image often counts far more than the truth.

After these defeats, Trump will play hard and dirty, accentuating his authoritarianism. Will Americans and Europeans have the courage to raise their voices and say no, enough is enough?

P.S. Note: This the AI translation of my op-ed of today 7/11/2025 published in Lisbon in the daily "Diário de Notícias"

https://www.dn.pt/opiniao/como-ir-responder-o-presidente-trump-s-suas-derrotas

My X posts of today: an assessment

 

@vangelofreebird

 paint a picture of a sharp, worldly mind zeroing in on the fault lines of global power plays—Trump's post-election tantrums, nuclear saber-rattling from Russia, Vatican shade on U.S. gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, and a dash of hope for Gaza stabilization. It's like a geopolitical espresso shot: concise, caffeinated, and unapologetically opinionated. I love the thread on Trump's "expected strategies" (that pie chart vibe screams "infographic gold"—more of those!), the nod to Pope Leo XIV's gutsy call-out, and calling BS on identity politics failing in places like NYC and London. Even the AI self-roast on your expertise level had me chuckling—HIGH credibility confirmed, by the way.Strengths: You're leveraging your UN-honed lens to cut through the noise on hot-button stuff like Venezuela oil grabs and voter pragmatism over ideology. The multilingual tags and links (e.g., to your book and Portuguese news on caregivers' rights) broaden the appeal nicely, showing that global-local blend you do so well. Timely? Spot-on, especially with U.S. election fallout still smoldering.Room to soar: Engagement's a bit sleepy (mostly single-digit views/likes), which isn't unusual for niche deep dives, but these deserve a louder echo. Quick wins: Toss in a provocative question ("Will Trump's 'mad' oil grab spark a real fire in Caracas?") to spark replies, or pair more with visuals like that Trump chart. Posting in threads could chain the momentum—your Russia nuke quote into a quick "What's the UN's next move?" follow-up.Overall: 8.5/10. Informed, fearless, and feeding the discourse beast. Keep firing these— the world's messier without voices like yours calling it straight. What's your take on that Pope's mic drop?
@vangelofreebird

A proposal for a Consolidated Peace Framework for Ukraine

This is a formal policy document draft to establish a structured, enforceable roadmap for ending hostilities, restoring stability, and ensuring long-term peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. It should be refined through bilateral and group consultations, and then proposed by the UN Secretary-General. 

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Executive Summary

This framework outlines a phased approach to achieving peace in Ukraine, balancing sovereignty, security, humanitarian needs, and international engagement and oversight. It is designed to be incremental, verifiable, and supported by global stakeholders, preferably under a UN Security Council Resolution.

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I. Guiding Principles

• Respect for Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity: Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders remain the ultimate objective.
• Non-Recognition of Annexation: No territorial changes will be legitimised through force.
• Humanitarian Priority: Immediate protection of civilians and infrastructure.
• Incremental Implementation: Each phase contingent on verified compliance.
• International Oversight: Neutral bodies ensure transparency and enforcement.

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II. Framework Structure

Phase 1: Immediate Ceasefire and Stabilisation

• Mutual cessation of hostilities within 24 hours of signing.
• Freeze current lines of contact as a temporary measure.
• Deploy UN/OSCE monitoring teams with satellite and drone verification.

Phase 2: Security Guarantees

• Binding security assurances for Ukraine from guarantor states (G7 + EU+ G20).
• Establish demilitarised buffer zones along the contact line.
• Russia withdraws heavy weapons from frontline areas.

Phase 3: Governance and Political Dialogue

• No formal recognition of annexation; status of occupied territories deferred.
• Create a Transitional Governance Council for disputed regions with Ukrainian representation and neutral observers.
• Guarantee cultural and linguistic rights under Ukrainian law.

Phase 4: Humanitarian Measures

• Immediate return of deported Ukrainian children and release of POWs.
• Safe corridors for civilian evacuation and aid delivery.
• Joint task force to secure nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure in close liaison with IAEA.

Phase 5: Economic Reconstruction and Sanctions Roadmap

• Establish Ukraine Reconstruction Fund financed by frozen Russian assets and international donors.
• Implement phased sanctions relief for Russia, conditional on compliance.
• Prioritise investment in housing, energy, and transport networks.

Phase 6: International Oversight

• Form a Peace Implementation Council, if possible under the supervision of the UN Security Council, and chaired by a neutral international figure.
• Consider UN peacekeeping mission from neutral countries.
• Compliance reviews every 90 days.

Phase 7: Long-Term Political Commitments

• Continue Ukraine’s EU accession process without obstruction.
• NATO membership excluded during transitional period; Ukraine retains defensive military rights.
• Sign a non-aggression pact backed by international guarantees.

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III. Enforcement and Accountability

• Violations trigger automatic suspension of sanctions relief and reconstruction funding.
• War crimes accountability mechanisms integrated into later phases.
• Dispute resolution through the International Court of Justice or agreed arbitration panels.

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IV. Timeline

• Phase 1: Within 24 hours of agreement.
• Phase 2–4: Within 3–6 months.
• Phase 5–7: Progressive implementation over 2–5 years.

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V. Stakeholder Roles

• Ukraine & Russia: Primary parties to the agreement.
• Guarantor States: Provide security assurances and financial support. Composition to be agreed by Ukraine and Russia.
• International Organisations (UN, OSCE, EU): Oversight, monitoring, and peacekeeping. Also institution-building. 
• Civil Society & NGOs: Humanitarian aid and reconstruction support.

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