The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.