Vladimir, the new type of dictator

President Vladimir Putin is not a democrat. He was educated by the monstrous machinery of the Soviet Communist Party and formatted by its political secret police, the infamous KGB. Therefore, it can’t be a surprise to see, as we have seen yesterday, he is not ready to leave power. He came to the top position twenty years ago and he wants to stay at the apex of the political pyramid for life. His strategic mind tells him he shouldn’t wait up to the end of his mandate to make the changes. He has another four years or so to go as President. But he knows that the future must be prepared well in advance.

That’s what he is doing with the proposed constitutional changes.

And the lesson we, in our side of Europe must draw out of his move, is clear. Vladimir Putin is a dictator and will always relate to us as dictators do. They fear democratic regimes and will do anything to undermine them. They see us as a bad example that could cause some political contagion in Russia.  

Hong Kong and the fire wall

The people of Hong Kong are very brave. In addition, they might be giving some sleepless nights to President Xi and the leadership circle in Beijing. Xi Jinping and his inner group are probably asking themselves if this type of mass movement could one day happen in any of the big cities of Mainland China.

We might think that is a very remote possibility. That mass demonstrations will not occur in the Mainland. That the Communist leaders will keep strengthening the police and security controls, as they have been doing. They will also black out all the information regarding the protests in Hong Kong, as they did today and in the last few days.

But one never knows. There are many giant cities in China and lots of people are now travelling abroad and seeing other realities. Including many young Chinese professionals, who have studied abroad or are still studying in Japan, Thailand, Australia, Europe, Canada and the US.

Beijing might say all this unrest is caused by foreign powers. But they know that is not the case. I trust the leaders do not believe in their own discredited propaganda. They are very much aware that things are changing rapidly all over the world and that no fire wall can keep the human aspiration for freedom on just one side of the barrier. Sooner or later, they are afraid, the opening of the wall will happen.

Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.