The
rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and
Iran would also be god fathering the process.
One
of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia
will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to
accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.
My
impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish
militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start
attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the
Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as
terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the
Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.
But
all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the
ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from
being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not
only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can
achieve a military solution.
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