Assad and Erdogan meet in Idlib

Bashar al-Assad of Syria and his Russian friends have been planning the Idlib campaign since December. He does not know about negotiations and compromises. Assad only understands the language of force, the crushing of his opponents. Therefore, he can only trust what comes from a military victory. His Russian supporters follow the same political philosophy. Politics is about absolute power. That’s why all of them are so committed to the Idlib war campaign.

The Russians control the air space. That gives a major advantage to Assad’s troops. They follow the bombings and complete the groundwork. The civilian population is caught in between the bombs – they fall all over, including on hospitals and school buildings – and the foot soldiers. People are also trapped by the rebel groups that have sought a final refuge in the province. The result is widespread human agony, disruption, and death.

The Turkish army has deployed to the province as well. They have about twelve positions in this corner of Syria. That was President Erdogan’s decision. He thought the Syrian army and the Russians would refrain from attacking Idlib because of the Turkish presence. And that would help the rebel groups that are allied to the Turks. In addition, it would keep the internal displacements to a minimum. Mistake. The military offensive keeps moving forward, the populations are displaced and trying to beat death daily. And now, the Turkish soldiers are being targeted as well. They will remain in Assad’s crosshairs. Assad knows he can count on Vladimir Putin’s backing. He also knows that Erdogan has very few powerful friends in the international circles. Erdogan’s ambition and arrogance ended up by isolating him.

Erdogan has only one option. To withdraw from Idlib and let the local refugees cross into his country. The rebels will come along with them to escape the Assad troops. And soon or later the confrontation will resume.

Idlib and the divided Security Council

The UN Security Council today met on Syria. One more meeting for nothing. The humanitarian situation in the Idlib Province is desperate for around 900,000 people, many of them children. That was one of the reasons for the meeting. The other is that a growing military offensive is under way. The leadership in Damascus is convinced that they can win and retake the province. For Assad, there is only one solution to the rebellion, a military one. His allies, the Russians, share the same view. And that is what is being implemented.

The Council could have adopted a resolution calling for a ceasefire. It did not happen. The Russians have opposed it. The only thing the Council did was to recall the peace process it had approved four years ago, in December 2015, and insist on its implementation. That’s a ridiculous approach. Today’s situation is very different from the one in 2015. For instance, now there is a heavy involvement of Turkey in this corner of Syria. There is a serious risk of clashes, even confrontation, between the two sides. That means, there is an enormous potential for escalation. That and the humanitarian crisis are the two dimensions that require immediate attention.

But the UN Security Council is too divided. The bet must be placed in another forum.

Idlib and its humanitarian tragedy

Today, I must write about the situation in the Idlib Province of Syria. Following the military operations ordered by President Bashar al-Assad and supported by the Russian air force, there is a major humanitarian crisis in Idlib. Hundreds of thousands of people – the more accurate figure must be close to a million – are just caught in between the advancing regime forces and the border with Turkey, that remains closed. These people require urgent assistance. The UN and the key NGOs could provide much of needed help but can’t operate when there are bombardments going on. We must advocate for a temporary halt. And let the civilians move on.

This tragedy should be brought to the attention of the UN Security Council. I have no illusion about the Council. But I think the European countries that sit in the Council should urgently table the situation. That’s a moral move. A necessary one. It might also get us to a short humanitarian window of opportunity.

Syria: looking ahead

Regarding the Syrian complex crisis, it´s obvious that Assad and Putin believe in the military solution. And they are now close to achieve the military control of a good deal of the territory.

That option might result for a while, but it cannot resolve the deep divisions existing in the country. It does not address the overwhelming call for inclusiveness and democracy coming from so many segments of the population. It only suspends and postpones the crisis.

I am not sure Bashar al-Assad realises he must open up and engage in political dialogue, after winning on the military front. This should be the key message the EU leaders should put across to him. For that, they have no alternative but to re-engage the contacts with the strongman in Damascus. The channels of communication between the EU and Syria ought to be re-established.

That´s my advice as the EU prepares to chair another conference on Syria.

Such conference must not be just about humanitarian assistance coupled with a mere statement reiterating past options. Options that time has shown to be as good as dead ends.

Moreover, it is not a great idea to link in the same conference two different matters: humanitarian needs should be discussed in a different forum. Not good to mix them with politics.

Friendly journalism

It can take months for a well-known, credible journalist to get a visa to enter Syria. Most of the times, the answer is no, no visa. Therefore, be on guard if one news person not only manages to get in but is also given a free hand to roam around as he pleases. Including to walk without a chaperon the streets of Douma, a township that remains out of reach for the UN chemical inspectors.

What do you expect from such a journalist? He is certainly a friend of the Assad circle of power. He will write stories that will go along with the regime´s narrative.

That will be highly appreciated by Assad and his supporters. And even more, if the said journalist comes from the UK or another major Western nation.

We should always keep in mind that the war is also about the way the stories are told and by whom. Propaganda is key in any war effort.  

Trump´s most pressing international challenges

This week, President Trump has been directly trapped by Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Kim Jong-un of North Korea. Both dictators decided to challenge the incoherence that defines the global policy of the new US President. Assad with sarin, the gas that he dropped from his airplanes and killed scores of innocent people. A true war crime, by all measures. Kim by firing a new missile towards the Sea of Japan, just a few days prior to his powerful neighbour´s visit to Florida for a first meeting with the big man from Washington.

He is also being challenged by Vladimir Putin. This special, unique strongman created the most absurd “explanation” to excuse the war crime committed by his ally in Syria. And decided to continue to block any action the UN Security Council could have taken on this appalling crisis.

The US President cannot limit his response to these major challenges to words of condemnation and expressions of outrage. They are essential, indeed, but not enough at this stage. He came to the White House as man of action and determination. He has now to show his resolution. Actions ought to match the promises.

But he has very narrow options.

The first one is about prioritising. He has to focus on one of his challengers and show that man that Trump means business. And that priority as things stand now should be about Assad. It must combine diplomatic initiatives, including a serious push for an international commission of inquiry, with other political measures and direct military pressure. The package has to be multifaceted, clear in its purpose, well explained to everyone but also limited in its range, in its initial stage. 

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution. 

A clown´s death

Today´s words should not go beyond Aleppo, Syria. The civilian population in some areas of the city is being targeted and indiscriminately killed. The atrocities have reached a new level of savagery these last few days. Some of the most emblematic civilians died during this last series of bombardments. Including the 24-year-old Anas al-Basha, a young man who has kept many besieged children happy as he played the clown in between the falling bombs. Yesterday, one of those missiles fell on him. It came from the Assad men. So other people say it was a Russian plane´s job. The fact of the matter is that his death and that of many children, men and women should not be allowed to go silent any longer. 

There is no Syrian ownership of the peace talks

The Syrian Geneva process is clearly owned and directed by foreigners: the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and somehow the UN, through its Special Envoy. The Syrian side – the many parties to the conflict – are sitting in the margins or squarely outside, far out. They are not committed to the process, one should add. And if that is the case I do not see how such an exercise can achieve any meaningful and durable results.  

A little ray of hope in Syria

The cessation of hostilities in Syria is creating some space for hope. That in itself is already an encouraging development. 

"Cessation of hostilies"

After today´s announcement of a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria, some commentators have shown a lot of scepticism about the effective implementation of such an agreement. The doubts are even stronger because the declaration was basically a joint statement by the US and Russia, with no apparent or implicit involvement by the Syrian parties to the conflict. 

My position on this proclamation is clear. I want to believe that the Americans and the Russians are indeed committed to creating the very minimal conditions for the political negotiations to take off the ground. I also think they would like some kind of humanitarian assistance to be facilitated. Assistance is urgently required in many areas of the country. Some pause on the war would make it possible to reach many of those in need.

As I am ready to accept the good faith of the declaration, I should also add that we are still far from the beginning of a true peace process. But at least there is some movement now and one has to clutch whatever little candle of hope is flaming. Even when the flame is pretty tenuous. 

Merkel´s words on the Russians

I commend Angela Merkel for her very strong words condemning the current Russian military operations in Syria. That´s the type of statement we would like to hear from other EU and US leaders. 

In addition, let me be clear about the Russians. We need them to resolve the Syrian tragedy. We should recognise their role in the region. But we should also add that their ongoing policy options and actions are wrong. They only contribute to dramatically augment the suffering, to expand and prolong the humanitarian disaster and to make the Damascus regime believe they can win the war. 

Aleppo

The Russian forces deployed in Syria are now focussed on getting the city of Aleppo and its surrounding areas under Assad´s control. That´s were their current main effort is. Not on the Islamic State terrorists. As they do that, tens of thousands of people move out of the area and try to seek refuge in Turkey. This gives the Russians another reason to go for Aleppo: it ends up by increasing the pressure on the Turks. And, as we know, the Russians have an axe to grind with Turkey. This is a way of doing it. All this aggravates the geopolitical tensions and makes a political solution even more remote. Actually, at this stage I see almost no chance to get the Geneva talks back on the agenda. The bet seems, once again, to be on a military response to an inhumane chaotic situation. 

Syria´s moves

In the end, it might not result. But the UN´s determination in moving ahead with the Syrian political talks in Geneva most be commended. Every interested party, from the country and from the outside world, with the exception of the Islamic State and Al-Nusra Front terrorists, has to be faced with the reality: it is time to find a political solution to the long lasting crisis. They better sit around the table or in the rooms next door and be part of the solution.

It will not be easy. But it is the only way forward.

It should however be accompanied by an intensification of the campaigns against the two terrorist organisations mentioned above. That new degree of intensity can only be achieved through the action of Special Forces. As the Geneva process takes off the ground, the background discussions about the use and the role of such forces should take place elsewhere and under the co-leadership of the US and Russia. The UN should have no role there. 

War crimes in Syria

Madaya, the Syrian town that has been under siege for more than six months, surrounded by government troops, is a symbol. As are the towns of Foah and Kefraya, in the Northern part of the country. They have also endured a very long siege, this time by rebel groups that are fighting the regime of President al-Assad.

In Madaya, around 40,000 people have been without food and medicines supplies. In the two government-controlled towns, the numbers are close to 20,000. All three are not only a reminder of the ferocity of the conflict that is consuming Syria since 2012, of the widespread human suffering, they are also an example of the many war crimes that every side is committing.

Indeed, starving masses of civilians to death, as it is the case in these towns, is a war crime, as defined by international law. But after so many atrocities, we are losing sight of the very serious violations of the law of the war that keep occurring in the country. That´s certainly not a very good approach to justice. The peace process, when it happens, has to take these matters into account as well. 

Syria: the key Foreign ministers should remain closely engaged

One can have plenty of doubts about the realism and feasibility of the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, adopted yesterday. However, in view of the extreme complex situation the country is going through, a situation that has lasted now for too long, any move by the UN should be appreciated and encouraged. Particularly this one that has been discussed at the level of Foreign ministers. Actually, the continued personal involvement of the ministers will be required as we go into the implementation phase. That´s the best way to ensure that they see this process as being under their direct responsibility. The UN Special Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, can be the personification of the international community´s commitment to Syria. But he will need the unswerving support of the key ministers. That will be key for any progress to take place. 

Supporting the Vienna process on Syria

A week ago, I criticised the conveners of the Vienna meeting on Syria for not inviting the UN and EU. Now, after today´s new round of discussions in Vienna, I should commend the US and Russia for bringing to the room not only the UN and the EU, but also the other countries that can have an impact on the solution of the long lasting civil war. It was particularly important to have Iran in the conversation.

This basically means that for the first time, after so many years of destruction and human pain, there is a bit of hope for the Syrians. The road ahead is still very difficult. But at least the diplomacy is now seriously trying to initiate a peace process.

The next step is to find a way of bringing in the Syrian representatives themselves. I am confident that it should be possible, if all those who met in Vienna today do their honest part of the bargain.

It is also critically important to intensify the destruction of the Islamic State leadership and power structures. For that to happen, one has to be very frank and have the courage to denounce any double game that might occur in the future. We cannot accept a country sits in Vienna and talks about the future of a peaceful Syria and, at the same time, keeps somehow supporting the terrorists.

Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…

Syria policy review

The refugee influx is re-opening the debate about the EU´s role in Syria and in the region. And my advice is that the reflection should look into every option. But it should, above all, be honest about what´s to be achieved and frank when reviewing the means and ways of achieving such objectives. It cannot be just more dust in the air to gain the impression that we are doing something out there. The challenges are too serious for superficiality and make believe.

Call for a new policy approach on Syria

In view of the recent events, it should be clear that the time has arrived for a new policy on Syria.

The humanitarian crisis must be addressed. And the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State have to be neutralised. These are the two overriding priorities. Both of them require the Western countries and the neighbouring countries in the region to adopt a new approach.

One of the key steps should therefore be to re-engage with Bashar al-Assad. Leaders need to recognise the need for such a move. Assad has been a considerable part of problem, it is true. But he is going nowhere, we reached a standstill. He will stay in charge of part of the country and in command of a share of its ruins. He represents an important albeit small segment of the Syrian population. And he knows that the UN Security Council will never agree on his condemnation.

He should therefore be part of the solution. To continue to consider his removal from power a critical objective is the wrong option.

 We cannot ignore the plight of the displaced and the refugees. As we cannot forget that the IS fanatics are a major threat to the region and to us as well.  All efforts should focus on both issues.