Venezuela: mediation, mediation, mediation

Today’s situation in Venezuela moved a step closer to national tragedy.

Very concerned, the UN Secretary-General called for both Government and opposition forces to exercise “maximum restraint”. That is a necessary call.

But certainly not enough.

It is a passive reaction to a major development in the Venezuelan crisis. Antonio Guterres should also be offering his mediation authority. Mediation between both sides remains the only peaceful opening, the only hope to avoid additional loss of life and humanitarian suffering.

 I know the big bosses in Washington do not want to hear that word, mediation. They are simply betting on Maduro’s total defeat. But the Secretary-General cannot just pay attention to Washington. He is the voice of the world and the standard-bearer of common sense. His duty is to be at the service of peace. For that, he must underline in very clear terms that the UN good offices are the most reasonable way forward as far as Venezuela’s future is concerned.  

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution.