Supporting the Kurdish people in Syria

Turkey’s military invasion of North-Eastern Syria is illegal, from the international law perspective. It is also a tremendous political mistake, with many possible consequences. I have not seen a single country, among those who matter in international affairs and in the region, that has supported President Erdogan’s decision.

In this kind of dangerous military interventions experience has taught us that we know when the operation starts but nobody can predict when it will end. Erdogan’s people can find themselves caught in a never-ending drama.

Moreover, the Kurds of Syria have been brave allies of the anti-terrorist forces that have fought the Islamic State criminals. They have generated a very important capital of sympathy in Europe and the US. It is not only that we are indebted to their courage and fighting spirit. It is also that we all recognise that they have created a space of tranquillity and some type of normalcy in a country that has been in chaos. It is that order that President Erdogan is now destroying with his heavy artillery and fighter planes.

It is unacceptable.

Supporting the Kurds in Syria

All indications, facts and intelligence, and independent media reports, show that the so-called Islamic State is still a serious threat in North-Eastern Syria. It would be utterly irresponsible for any democratic leader do deny it.

Moreover, all the support that can be provided to those inside Syria that have demonstrated their determination to effectively fight the IS terrorists should be sustained. That’s the case of the Kurdish fighters under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

That support must include political negotiations with the Turkish government, even if one knows that such initiative is not easily accepted by President Erdogan. Without ignoring Erdogan’s belligerent approach towards the Syrian Kurds, my recommendation is to keep the strategic liaison with Ankara as close as possible. Turkey must be part of the Syrian stabilization process. There should be no doubt about that, as there is no doubt about the critical role played by the Syrian Kurds and their fellow allies. All this, as we make sure everyone understands that any form of terrorism, war crimes and violence are absolutely unacceptable. 

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution.