The
Venezuela standoff goes on. Time plays against Nicolás Maduro. He sees what
remains of his authority being eroded with the passing of the days. He knows
that, I believe, and is certainly preparing a heavy-handed response. And that’s
the main danger at this stage: serious loss of lives.
Maduro
also understands that the current context is different and not very favourable
to him. The opposition is united. They have a charismatic and widely accepted
leader. There is regional and international support to the new leader. Moreover,
the regional rapport of forces is no longer what it used to be: now there is
Bolsonaro next door, and the countries of the region are against him, except
for Mexico, Cuba and Bolivia. And there has been a serious deterioration of the
hardships most of the population is confronted with. The circumstances are playing
against Maduro.
But
he is still in the Miraflores Presidential Palace. And he has the support of
his generals and admirals. That is important. The question is about the support
of the lower ranking officers within the armed forces. That’s one of the keys
to unlock the crisis.
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