President Trump and the EU

A few of my readers have expressed some degree of surprise after reading what I wrote in my last blog about President Trump’s policy towards the EU. I basically said the President is not in favour of a strong EU. And that is a radical change of approach, because for decades his predecessors have encouraged the European countries to cooperate and strengthen the EU. Even in the case of the UK, the message coming from Washington has always been in the sense of advising London to be closer to Continental Europe.

 With President Trump, we have a new situation. First, he sees the EU as economic competition and a market that is huge but has too many barriers when it comes to some critical American exports, such as cars and farm products. But there is more to it, beyond the economic and trade issues. He thinks that the key EU leaders have an international agenda that contradicts his own and weakens it. That is the case on climate, on Iran, on Russia, on Cuba and Venezuela, on multilateralism, even on China. Not to mention the new idea of a European common defence, an idea that Emmanuel Macron personalises. On defence, President Trump follows a line that has been present in Washington for long now: the Europeans must spend more on their armies but keep them under the overall control and command of the US military. He senses that in this area the European response is becoming more independent and he does not like it at all.

August is not a good time to discuss these matters. People on both sides of the Atlantic are above all concerned with the weather and their holidays. It is however a debate that must be reopened after the rentrée in September.

Maduro's days

The Venezuela standoff goes on. Time plays against Nicolás Maduro. He sees what remains of his authority being eroded with the passing of the days. He knows that, I believe, and is certainly preparing a heavy-handed response. And that’s the main danger at this stage: serious loss of lives.

Maduro also understands that the current context is different and not very favourable to him. The opposition is united. They have a charismatic and widely accepted leader. There is regional and international support to the new leader. Moreover, the regional rapport of forces is no longer what it used to be: now there is Bolsonaro next door, and the countries of the region are against him, except for Mexico, Cuba and Bolivia. And there has been a serious deterioration of the hardships most of the population is confronted with. The circumstances are playing against Maduro.

But he is still in the Miraflores Presidential Palace. And he has the support of his generals and admirals. That is important. The question is about the support of the lower ranking officers within the armed forces. That’s one of the keys to unlock the crisis.

President Obama is in Cuba

President Obama´s visit to Cuba must be supported. To engage is the right way to contribute to change. That´s particularly true in this case, as the Cuban establishment is under serious domestic pressure to open up and to accept that the world is no longer what it used to be thirty or forty years ago.

It is also obvious that the road to political plurality in Cuba is not a straight one. The police pressure on dissidence is a daily fact of life in the island. Human rights are still far from being respected. But the movement has started a few years ago and it will accelerate further as the old generation of leaders is replaced by a younger one. 

American political engagement can play a major role. Many Cubans look north, when they dream about the future of their country. And many have family links with the US.

The EU has also decided to deepen the political dialogue with Habana. A new agreement on politics and cooperation was signed on 11 March 2016 between the European External Action Service, on behalf of the EU, and the Cuban government. This accord reinforces and gives more focus to the one signed in 2008.

The EU is a major commercial partner of Cuba. It is the largest foreign investor over there. But there is plenty of room for investment coming from the US. And the modernization and diversification of the Cuban economy open new opportunities for the people. Economic opportunities, of course, but also the possibility of work outside the state controlled sectors. That will end up by having an impact on liberty and freedom of speech.

On the same line, and as a necessary next step, the American embargo should be discontinued. That will another major contribution to political and social change in Cuba.

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

Happy to see the US and Cuba back on the diplomatic arena

The US and Cuba are back in the diplomatic business. The embassies are now open and the normalisation process keeps moving in the right direction. That´s good news. The next step ought to be the end of the American embargo against Cuba. It makes no sense to keep it. On the contrary, its lifting has a big chance of contributing to a faster transformation of the Cuban society and politics. My voice joins therefore all the others that call for an end of the sanctions in the very near future. 

Obama and Castro

I am telling my friends I fully support the approach President Obama has just adopted concerning Cuba.

It is time, indeed, to look at the relations with that country with the eyes of today and not with the perspective that has shaped our past.

It is easier to change the situation if we engage. Presence is influence. Presence is a launching pad to support change. And the people of Cuba are eager to see change in their country. Raul Castro understands it but he is constrained by his own personal history, his political relationships and the power base that keeps him at the head of the Party. But even he keeps stating the old things he is at the same time creating the conditions for a more democratic and more prosperous Cuba. We should be able to understand that. 

Cuba sends 165 health personnel to Sierra Leone

Cuba has decided to deploy 165 medical and health services personnel to Sierra Leone to help in the fight against the Ebola pandemics. They will serve for a six-month period.

This is great news. It should be reported on the big media. It is important to show that West Africa is facing a major crisis and that the countries of the region need a much stronger response from the international community.