Europe: de-dramatize and fight the deceit
Victor Ângelo
Diplomacy
has been in a frenzy for the past two weeks. Russian threats were taken
seriously and suddenly everyone in Europe and the United States thought it was
indispensable to talk to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. And both have
lent themselves to the game. Just a few days ago Viktor Orbán was in Moscow,
and Boris Johnson in Kiev. At first sight, a forceful response to the threats
triggered a series of diplomatic initiatives. The parties continue to pursue
the path of negotiation, even as they acknowledge the lack of progress. This,
despite the strengthening of military positions, which has been unrelenting, is
positive. The likelihood of a military confrontation has not gone away, and
remains very high, but it is no longer the only alternative.
Nobody
has tried to facilitate the contact between the main parties involved. It is
important that Putin and Zelensky speak directly to each other. Even bearing in
mind that the underlying issue is much bigger than the dispute between Russia
and Ukraine. The peaceful resolution of conflicts is always done step by step,
like someone solving a puzzle. Starting with the implementation of the Normandy
agreement - which aims to restore peace in the rebel-held areas of eastern
Ukraine - would be a big step in the right direction.
What
is missing is someone who can bridge and mediate between the neighbouring
presidents. Unfortunately I don't see, in Europe or in an international
organisation, many who can do this. Mediation and conflict prevention are two
particularly difficult areas of international relations. I have learned this
from decades of practice. They require intermediaries with great moral
authority, personal courage, political influence, and a credible structure to
back them up. At present, such personalities are rare birds, as organisations
and political systems have been taken over by nationalists or else by
distinguished errand boys and other opportunists. At this moment, with the
exception that Emmanuel Macron may be, Europe is without protagonists capable
of projecting themselves beyond their national borders.
Viktor
Orbán is also very much stirred up on the European scene, but for purely
domestic reasons. Hungary has legislative elections scheduled for 3 April. If
there is no fraud - and there is a big if here - Orbán could lose the battle of
the popular vote. So, ensuring the seriousness of this electoral act is
especially important for those who believe in a democratic Europe. The current
Hungarian prime minister is indeed a negative force on the European scene.
Meanwhile, and before the Moscow visit, Orbán was in Madrid last weekend to
attend a new meeting of the EU's ultraconservative, neo-fascist, and
ultranationalist parties.
It
was a meeting organised by the Spanish far-right party Vox. The theme was
"defending Europe". Interestingly, it was only after much insistence
by the Polish prime minister that the participants included in the final
communiqué a reference to the current aggressive stance of the Kremlin and the
danger this poses to peace in Europe. Yet Marine Le Pen, when she published the
communiqué on her personal propaganda website, kindly deleted this reference to
Russian moves. She thus proved once again that Putin can count on the
benevolence of certain European neo-fascist and xenophobic groups. And on
Viktor Orbán, within the EU. And these fellows can expect, reciprocally, his
support, money and more gas at the price offered to allies.
Putin
can also count on a few commentators who think it is in good taste and progressive
thinking to serve as an echo chamber for the propaganda and falsehoods
circulated by the Kremlin. In some cases, these are intellectuals who were
trained ideologically during the Cold War. For others, it is just a way of
trying to show that they are smarter and that they understand the strategy at
play better than anyone else. In both cases, although they are not the
political relatives of Le Pen or Orbán, in practice they end up doing an
identical service.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de
Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 4 February
2022)
No comments:
Post a Comment