A diplomacy with strength
Victor
Angelo
When
the United Nations was created in 1945, its founders had in mind the
establishment of a supranational organization capable of resolving future
conflicts in a peaceful manner, in particular those that might occur between
the great powers. We were at the end of the Second World War, which had brought
incredible levels of suffering and destruction. The main concern was to avoid
new military confrontations. So, they established a structure that gave the
primacy to diplomatic negotiations and that should prevent situations like the
one that now exists around Ukraine from sliding into a new war. More than seven
decades later, the founding fathers, if they were still among us, would be
deeply shocked to see that the UN is completely marginalised here in this part
of Europe in the crisis between Russia and the West. As it is in other
geographies, where the superpowers intervene directly in the struggle for what
they consider to be their vital interests.
The
focus on diplomacy, regarding Ukraine and the broader issue of European
security, is now taking place in other forums - in the EU, in NATO, in the OSCE
in Vienna. And, above all, in bilateral discussions between the Americans and
the Russians, leaving the Europeans in a secondary position, even though they
are the ones who will have to pay the most important part of the bill, the cost
of the decisions that will be taken. The extent of the bill remains to be
defined, in economic, financial, or even military terms.
So,
it is not only the UN that is left out, but also the Europeans themselves,
however much they deny it. It is enough to see that there is no enthusiasm in
the Kremlin to discuss a new defence architecture in Europe with the German,
French or other leaders. Whether one wants to see it or not, the truth is that
the Russians only believe in possible understandings with the Americans. As far
as the EU is concerned, Russia is only interested in the most technologically
and economically advanced member states, one by one, and only for business
reasons. Only on Wednesday, Putin held a videoconference with the heads of the
major Italian multinationals (Enel, UniCredit Bank, and the Generali insurance
company, among others), while at the same time ignoring the proposals for
détente sent to him by Macron and reinforcing the presence of his armed forces
in Belarus, a stone's throw from Kiev.
It
has once again become clear that we are still part of an international
framework in which armed force, or at least those who have it, make the law.
This has a very negative impact on the political role of the UN. It also
represents a fundamental challenge for the EU, which does not have the military
and foreign policy capabilities that would be required to assert its strategic
views and interests. The current crisis must be turned into an opportunity to
strengthen those capabilities. It is necessary to reduce Europe's double
dependence - military and political - on the US just as it is essential to
reduce the energy dependence of certain EU member states on Russia.
Returning
to diplomacy, I recall that Louis XIV had the Latin locution "ultima ratio
regum" engraved on his cannons, to remind us that heavy weaponry was
"the ultimate argument of kings". In other words, for diplomacy to be
effective when peace is desired, warlike preparation cannot be neglected.
However, today's wars are no longer waged using only cannons: economic and
financial measures, political restrictions, cybernetics, information and
counterinformation are now also part of the arsenal. This is what is known as
an integrated response to external aggression.
Such a response is particularly necessary when on the other side we have
an autocratic regime, led by an individual who presents himself as the ultra-nationalist
protector of his people and national culture, who calls opponents traitors and
who does not hesitate to use armed violence, internally and externally, to
achieve his personal power objectives.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de
Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 28 January
2022)
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