May day in the UK

Theresa May is now the new UK Prime Minister. Her most immediate task, as we see it from the EU side, should be to initiate the exit process soonest.

She might not agree with the urgency of it. But the European leaders must keep the pressure on her and help her to understand that there is no gain and no space for delaying manoeuvres. That´s what the European citizens expect from their leaders as well.

I recognise the actual negotiations might take long. Those negotiations are however about technical issues and the very specific points of the future relationship. They should be conducted within a clear political framework, well balanced and based on established principles and rules. It is that guiding framework that needs to be defined first and without any undue delay.

The powerful smell of corruption

Today´s Anti-Corruption Summit brought together a few political leaders and some NGOs. 

David Cameron, the convener of the meeting, says the gathering has been a success. I would not go that far. He might have obtained some domestic gains out of it, I would not dispute that. However, I would also add the summit was simply one more step towards a more transparent international order. 

But we are still far away from the goal. It would be a serious mistake to try to fool ourselves about this. Many countries are led by extremely corrupt political elites. Those elites might have paid some attention to the final communiqué of today´s meeting. They will keep a close eye on the implementation of the conclusions. But they know they have many alternatives besides London. Including in other parts of Europe, of course. 

David Cameron will keep fighting

The readers have certainly noticed I am not a strong supporter of David Cameron. However, I should immediately add that I was very impressed by his fighting spirit during the EU Council meeting that ended last night. He had a clear understanding of the goals he wanted to achieve and was tireless in pursuing them. Then, in the end, he met the media and communicated very well. The words were the right ones, the political messages easy to grasp and to summarize, and the tone was strong, intense and exultant. I thought, as I was listening to him, that he will be a formidable campaigner to the UK-in-the-EU vote. It will be a difficult political battle. In my opinion, he starts it with a very high chance of defeat. But he has shown that he can turn things around. It will not be easier. But he will fight and it will be an interesting period to observe.

Three questions about the Brexit

Today´s summit meeting of the EU Council is publicised by some of the key leaders as a decisive one. Why? Well, because of the UK´s demands. The threat of Brexit, the exit of the UK from the EU. Mr Cameron is asking for a new deal between his country and the rest of the EU. He needs it as a major contribution to his political survival strategy. If he can convince the British voters he has managed to twist the European arm that will consolidate him as party leader and also as Prime Minister.

There are many questions that could be raised about all this. But I will save my readers´ sanity and will only mention three of them.

First, this is meeting number 25. I explain. In the last five years or so, twenty-four meetings of the top EU leaders have been presented as critical. Today we have one more. There is a problem here: the frequency of “decisive meetings” has been too high. Maybe Europe is just moving from crisis to crisis, like a dangerously sick person.

Second, Brexit is above all a British issue. They are the ones that should decide if they want to keep the membership or not. Europe will continue and its construction, at a slower or faster pace, depending of the policy areas, is on the way. The leaders and the people of the UK should make their minds. Either they are in and participate in the vast majority of the common projects or they are out and sign some kind of free trade agreement with the EU.

Third, it is almost certain Cameron will lose the support of the British voters. The chances of a Brexit are very high. The EU cannot fall on its knees to please the British. Short of that, they will opt for the exit door.

I am one of those who believe it is time to be clear. Clear vis-à-vis our own citizens and clear regarding David Cameron´s political games. 

Cameron´s doomed days

As we come closer to the next summit meeting of the EU Council, on 18 and 19 February, the Brexit issue gets more attention. It will be one of the heavy subjects on the table during the meeting. And I am afraid David Cameron will not get more concessions from the heads of state and government than those already suggested by Donald Tusk. It will be difficult for him to manage that. The popular media in the UK thinks that Tusk´s proposals do not go far enough. That opinion will have a significant impact on the voters. And I am getting convinced that Cameron is going to be one of the great losers of all this process. His political future is very much at stake. He will not be able to survive a contrarian vote.

Cameron might lose the referendum on the EU

My column of today in the Visão magazine on line is about the relations between the EU and the UK. The text is in Portuguese, of course. My point is that the proposals made by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, should be supported. Some EU leaders think that Tusk has gone too far in terms of concessions. It is not really the case. He has been able to put together some generic rules that can be used by Britain and by any other country. They are based on David Cameron´s demands but do not give him everything he had asked for. Now it is up to the British Prime Minister to be able to convince his party and the voters that there is enough “reform” to justify the continuation of the UK within the EU. And that´s a big challenge. At this stage, I am afraid the referendum will be lost. Brexit is today a possibility. Cameron has to fight very hard to prevent that.  

EU meets on Brexit and clarifies nothing

There will be another EU summit here in Brussels tomorrow. This time the main course on the table should consist on the British future within the Union. 

UK Prime Minister Cameron wants the other European leaders to set the principles that will guide the bureaucrats’ work during the next couple of months as they will draft the response to Britain´s demands. He expects the leaders to be generous and therefore ready to support his views. Cameron thinks there is no way for his position not to be accepted. EU leaders want, in his opinion, to keep the UK in and will therefore cave in.

I think the leaders will indeed be soft on Cameron. Not because they agree with his exigencies. They actually think he is unreasonable. They will accept a softer line just because they are too distracted with their own national concerns and with other matters such as the common response to the refugee flows to be bothered at this stage by the British domestic politics.

And that´s a risk. In such matters the more you let the situation go undefined the greater the risk of later clashes. But this is the way the EU leaders do business at present. 

Our European problems and Cameron´s

There is very little time, these days, to think about David Cameron and his conditions for the UK to remain within the EU.

France and Marine Le Pen´s initial electoral victory are taking a lot of the attention span available. And there are good reasons for that. Le Pen´s race to power needs to be stopped. And the concerns of her voters must be responded to at the same time. These are two immense jobs. They concern not only the French but all those in the vicinity who believe in a united Europe.

Then, there is the fight against terrorism. The key issue is to devise approaches that could effectively prevent the radicalisation of some young Europeans. There is a lot of debate about the issue of radicalisation but not enough concrete ideas on how to tackle it. The competition for new ideas is open.

The immigration issue is still unresolved. That adds a very heavy burden to the European agenda. And the longer it takes the more complex it becomes. The first step here is to strengthen the Schengen external borders. But there are many other things that need to be dealt with, including the very serious challenge of integrating those who are already in. This task is now particularly complex in view of the current change of opinion about the massive presence of Muslim populations in the European space.

In the midst of these very critical issues the UK´s referendum looks very much like Cameron´s self-created problem. He will have to take the lead in sorting it out. He knows that his key financial masters want the UK to stay in the EU. He also understands he cannot deceive them. He has therefore to be smart and imaginative. What a challenge!

UK Labour Party got an interesting Leader

It´s official, Jeremy Corbyn is the new Leader of the UK´s Labour Party. He comes from outside the party´s mainstream. His ideas are much closer to the radical Left than to those Labour has advocated since the late 90s, when Blair came to power. Corbyn´s election calls therefore for a serious reflection about politics in our type of societies.

Many people said they have voted for him because they understand what he is saying. They understand he is not a Conservative under the disguise of Labour. What he talks about is more than just a nuance of Conservative´s positions. That makes him clear and gives him the support of all those who believe the UK has become more unequal and less friendly to the weak. The lesson here is simple: if you want to be seen as an alternative be clear about your positions, make them be seen as clearly distinct from those of your opponents.

He has also attracted the backing of many younger voters. He might be wrong in his prescriptions and policy options but he grounds them on values and generosity. And that´s what the young people want to hear. Values are back in the public opinion and politicians need to take that into account. There is less room today for opportunism and cynicism.

He might never become a prime minister. I do not see the majority of the British voting for him. He might even be bad news for Europe as I do not see him engaging in the Yes campaign at the time of the British referendum on the EU.

But he will make politics in the UK a bit more popular and interesting for a good while. David Cameron can expect a number of good fights in Parliament.

Europe´s face cannot look tired

I have supported since the early days Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission. I know he has the experience and the courage required for such a tough job. But these days he looks tired and too thin-skinned, irritable. He should pay attention to that. Leaders, particularly at challenging times, should look as being in control, calm and refreshed.

The rentrée, after the summer break, will be particularly demanding for Europe. Greece will continue at the top of the list, side by side with the immigration issues, plus matters related to internal security and instability in North Africa and Middle East. To that already heavy list, one should add the policy matters raised by the very special political options of Viktor Orban in Hungary and Cameron´s exigencies in terms of reform, and also the need to re-open the dialogue with Russia.

This is a full agenda. It calls for leadership that projects strength, confidence and optimism. And those features have to be seen on the TV screens, when people like Juncker are talking to the media or to the EU Parliament.  They are the public faces of the Union. 

The EU voters are looking for predictability and security

A detailed analysis of David Cameron´s electoral victory teaches us a few political lessons. Paramount among them is the one related to predictability. In the UK and in many other corners of the EU, the citizen is ready to support the leader that is perceived as the best provider of stability and security, including economic security. The Europeans, after so many years of a deep economic crisis and many bits and pieces of bad news coming from other parts of the world not too far from our Continent, are unsettled. They feel their well-being and the many advantages they have acquired during the last decades are under threat. They tend then to be conservative and anxious to elect a leader that is seen as steady, strong and risk averse.

UK elections bring bad news to the EU

The initial exit polls show that David Cameron will continue to lead the UK as Prime Minister. If this is indeed confirmed, it will be challenging news for the EU project. Cameron will have to go ahead with the referendum on Europe, as promised. Such vote will not take place before the end of 2017. That would mean two years of uncertainty and serious British pressure on the EU institutions to try to force them to backpedal on a good number of decisions that have been adopted to promote greater coherence in Europe. These will certainly be two difficult years for those in Brussels and elsewhere who believe that Europe is by far the best option for a brighter future.

Cameron´s strange bedfellows

Friday, 13th June, has not been a very auspicious day for David Cameron. His party has now as fellow parties within the same EU Parliamentary group the likes of the Danish People´s Party, the True Finns and, of all, the German movement that Angela Merkel loves to hate: Alternative für Deutschland, an assembly of anti-euro extremists that the Chancellor considers a serious danger for Germany´s interests in the EU.

It is a very shameful collection of radical right-wingers. Their association with Cameron´s fellows makes Cameron´s position within the EU even more precarious.