The
drone cum missile attacks against Saudi oil facilities remain a major
international issue. Analysts have tried to read beyond these strikes. They seek
to understand what Iran’s game plan is. That’s certainly a key question, in
addition to several others. We need a plausible answer to it.
Iran
is clearly coordinating its actions with their clients in Yemen, the Houthi
rebels. Today, both Iran and the Houthi leadership have extended a hand of
dialogue. Last week, the hand they were showing resulted in the attacks, a
clear act of war. Now, they talk about bringing down the tension. At the same
time, the Iranians organise military parades and public demonstrations of
force.
But,
again, the question is what is their plan? Escalation, on one side, and diplomatic
talk, on the other, is a tactic but not a strategy. It is actually a very
dangerous approach. It can easily get things out of hand. And that risk is
still very much in the air. We are not out of the danger zone.
Iranian
leaders think they are now in a stronger position. That’s probably the reason
for the attacks. They wanted to show they can strike a country as heavily armed
as Saudi Arabia is. A country that is a close ally of the Americans. They wanted
to be seen as a sophisticated military power. And send a message that it is
better to negotiate with them than to confront them. The problem is that they
have little support outside the small circle that is constituted by a few
client governments and a couple of armed groups. Bigger countries will choose
the Saudi side, if they have to. And the extensive sanctions the US has imposed
on them will ruin their fragile economy and will create further opposition to
the clerics that control Iran’s power machinery.
I
can only anticipate disaster for Iran, if they continue to strike the
neighbours and to make bellicose announcements. Therefore, I see the attacks
against the Saudi refineries and plants as a very serious miscalculation. It is
a tactical victory and a strategic error.
