The Libyan future

 The Libyan conflict started nine years ago. It has been violent, and it destroyed most of the economy and livelihoods, as well as the State administration, which was already weak before the crisis. It also had a major impact on the region, as it contributed to increased insecurity in the Sahel. In the circumstances, the announcement this afternoon of a ceasefire, by both key players in the conflict, should be received with some degree of optimism. It came as a surprise, that is a fact. But the positive reactions expressed by Libya’s neighbours and friends, and by the Arab League, are very encouraging. Therefore, it would be inappropriate to comment on the declarations with any type of cynicism. I know it will be difficult to build peace. But the main question this evening is about building peace. How can the partners of Libya help to make sure that the ceasefire holds and that some stability and inclusiveness is created?

A plan that has no wings

The “peace plan” President Trump presented yesterday is not acceptable to the Palestinian side, as the initial reactions have shown. There is no surprise here. The document is basically an endorsement of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s views and an instrument to boost his chances during the forthcoming general election. Apparently, it is not adding any support to the Prime Minister’s electoral fortunes, but it is too early to conclude so.

The important point is that one of the two parties to the solution does not recognise President Trump’s initiative as positive. The President, if he really wanted to move the peace process forward, should start by a couple of goodwill gestures. He should authorise the reopening of the Palestine Delegation in Washington, a delegation he ordered to be closed in 2018. He should also resume the US funding contribution to the UN Agency that provides support to the Palestinians (UNRWA). And be much clearer about the future of Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley, two extremely sensitive points. Here, his position should be that both issues must be part of the agreement, without any position of force being stated since day one. Finally, he should establish a link between his vision and the Arab Peace Plan of 2002.

Well, all this is daydreaming, on my side. The truth of the matter is summarised by one single word: partiality.

EU and Arab Nations: lots to discuss

The European Union (still 28 States at the time of the meeting..) and the Arab League (22 States) first-ever summit has just taken place in Egypt. The joint statement can be read at:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/02/25/sharm-el-sheikh-summit-declaration/

Mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran

If I were the UN Secretary-General, I would immediately dispatch a Personal Envoy to consult with the authorities in Riyadh and Teheran, as well as with the Arab League and the key states in the region. The point is to take the initiative, at a very high level, to reduce the growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The SG should do it. And select the Envoy from a pool of respected former Heads of State or Prime Ministers, preferably from Asia.

He has the power and the status to initiate such a move. And he has to be seen as being extremely preoccupied with the aggravating situation in the Middle East. More so, because the new critical developments have a deep negative impact on the very timid and tentative peace processes that are about to start regarding Syria and Yemen. 

Downright pathetic politics in Egypt

Every time I see images, or read the proceedings of today´s Egyptian courts, a single word comes to mind: deplorable.

When the shock is too big, we can´t find too many words. 

A deal on Iran´s nuclear programme should be possible

The nuclear deal with Iran is important for all parties. But it needs to be very clear in its details and monitoring mechanisms. It´s therefore preferable to extend the negotiations than to rush through an agreement that is incomplete and ambiguous. It has taken very long to reach the stage where we find ourselves today. It is therefore worth to continue the discussions for a few more days and weeks if the intent is to reach an accord that is credible and acceptable to all sides, including to those who do not sit at the Lausanne table of negotiations but keep a close eye on what is going on. They are actually those who need to be fully convinced that the deal is good. 

Tunisia should count with the European support

The popular rally against terrorism that today brought thousands of people to the main avenues of the Tunisian capital should be seen as a sign of hope. I am also pleased to see François Hollande and Matteo Renzi among the crowd. European leaders have to be seen as supporting the struggle of the Tunisian people against all types of violent extremists. 

Yemen needs dialogue not bombs

It´s not a great idea to have a coalition of Sunni Arab states deeply involved in war operations inside Yemen. They are fighting the Shia-inspired Houthi rebels, who are seen as promoting Iran´s interests in the vital region that Yemen controls. But they have never engaged any action against the extremists of Al-Qaeda who have been operating in Yemen for a number of years and are a real threat to regional peace and stability.

Yemen is now a chaotic state. It needs all support it can get to bring the different ethnic and religious factions to the dialogue table and also to effectively combat the extremists. These are indeed the couple of priorities that should be in the minds of those who have some kind of influence in the region. 

Time to ponder about our relations with Saudi Arabia

The inauguration of a new King in Saudi Arabia should be taken as a chance to review the relations between Europe and that country. There are many dimensions of Saudi politics that are far away from our values. Without advocating any type of meddling in the internal affairs of the Kingdom, we should however show some distance and disapproval for anything that does not respect the internationally accepted convention on human rights, including the rights of the women and the freedom of religious practice.

We surrender moral authority every time we are perceived as weak and give room for accusations of double standards.

We gain when we frank with our allies. And we can be frank and still be diplomatic in our approach. 

Yemen is in chaos and is a major danger

The political crisis in Yemen has now reached a new height. The country is at war with itself, on one side, and, on the other side, at the mercy of terrorists in some regions. Chaos is now the word that best describes the situation.

 In a region that is already facing deep threats to peace and human security, Yemen adds a major new stain to the regional map. And a very aggressive one, for that matter, as the level of violence in the arid lands of Yemen is comparable to the one practiced by the IS senseless criminals in the territories under their control.

Any meaningful fight against international terrorism needs to address the formidable challenges that come out of Yemen. 

Forget the reform of the UN Security Council

The reform of the UN Security Council has been on the table for the last 20 years. And there is been no progress. The Permanent 5 (P5) are the ones blocking the change that should take place. They have the veto power and believe that their standing in the world is above every other nation. How can that be? How can France or the UK believe they yield more power than India or Brazil? 

It is now quite obvious that the reform will not happen in the foreseeable future. As an alternative, it is important to reinforce the authority and the legitimacy of other international groupings of nations, such as the African Union, the EU or the Arab League. Their capabilities to deal with matters of peace and security, as well as with economic coordination and development should be seriously enhanced.