Supporting the Kurds in Syria

All indications, facts and intelligence, and independent media reports, show that the so-called Islamic State is still a serious threat in North-Eastern Syria. It would be utterly irresponsible for any democratic leader do deny it.

Moreover, all the support that can be provided to those inside Syria that have demonstrated their determination to effectively fight the IS terrorists should be sustained. That’s the case of the Kurdish fighters under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

That support must include political negotiations with the Turkish government, even if one knows that such initiative is not easily accepted by President Erdogan. Without ignoring Erdogan’s belligerent approach towards the Syrian Kurds, my recommendation is to keep the strategic liaison with Ankara as close as possible. Turkey must be part of the Syrian stabilization process. There should be no doubt about that, as there is no doubt about the critical role played by the Syrian Kurds and their fellow allies. All this, as we make sure everyone understands that any form of terrorism, war crimes and violence are absolutely unacceptable. 

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

Dealing with the terrorists in a comprehensive manner

The number of players against the terrorists of the Islamic State is increasing by the day. There is a growing military engagement from the West in Syria and Iraq, in addition to the forces committed by the region and by Russia. There is even some military coordination with Assad in Damascus.

All this is fine. It shows the extraordinary concern that is shared by a good number of countries. IS represents indeed a very serious challenge to the region and to our part of the world as well. It has to be defeated. But I am afraid that the military response might not be enough to settle this major challenge. Even if we take into account the forthcoming deployment of some US Special Forces units, a decision that should be supported.

The military response is the easy response to IS. We need a political strategy too. And I can´t see it, neither in Baghdad nor in Damascus and even less so in Europe.

People say the comprehensive strategy will come. Good. In meantime, we should understand that this crisis is a long term affair. 

Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…

Russia is moving to Syria

There is a debate going on about Russia´s intentions in Syria. The reinforcement of their airbase in the port city of Latakia goes far beyond force protection and self-defence considerations. It is a big move. It looks like creating a big logistics base for a deeper mission in Syria.

The next few days should allow us to have a better understanding of the Russian plans in that country. They should also give us a hint of Moscow´s plans regarding their presence in the region. 

The absolute and unique target should be the IS structures

In Syria and Iraq, the main goals are by far to bring peace and stability back as well as to endeavour for democracy and rule of law.

In the current circumstances, the achievement of such priorities passes by the destruction of the Islamic State. The neutralization of their command-and-control structure is the most urgent step, the overriding concern. Every alliance should be directed at fighting IS. Placing other groups in the bull´s-eye is a very serious political and strategic mistake.

We have to be clear about it. Among ourselves and vis-à-vis our friends and allies. 

Turkey and the Kurdish question

The Turkish air raids against the IS terror group are very much welcome. However, the bombing of Kurdish positions in Northern Iraq, linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, also known by its initials PKK, are provoking a serious disquiet within European circles. 

The EU does not see the PKK as a terrorist organization. It changed its position in 2008 and its current approach is to encourage both sides – the Ankara government and PKK – to find a political agreement to their conflict. This should lead to constitutional changes, including some degree of acceptance of the Kurdish people´s rights and Kurdistan as an autonomous entity within Turkey.

There has been a cease-fire since 2013. But that is now under serious risk of falling apart.

In the meantime, it has been announced that the NATO Council will meet on Tuesday at the request of Turkey to discuss IS and also PKK-related matters. It will be important to listen to Ankara´s views. And it would also be critical that such views take into account the opinions of Turkey´s allies.

Turkey has taken the right decisions

The most expected decision has finally been taken by the Turkish President. From now on, the US Air Force is allowed to make use of Turkey´s military airports to launch air raids against IS targets. This will increase the operational capacity of the American planes as the flying distances become much shorter for missions related to Syria.

In addition, President Erdogan has also authorised his own air force to target IS infrastructure in Syria. This is also a very critical decision. If it is properly implemented, it will add a good amount of pressure on the terrorist group.

In the meantime, the neutralization of IS top fighters has gained a new pace. That approach is certainly the most effective way of degrading the capacity of the organization. It requires, however, a new level of intelligence exchange between the allied forces. Particularly a much stronger determination to share from the Turkish side. 

More on the strategy against the terrorists of the Islamic State

We usually emphasise that each national crisis should have a political response and end up with an agreement between the parties. In the case of Syria, it would be, at this stage, a serious mistake to insist on a political solution. The situation has reached such a dramatic level that the only way forward, for the moment, is through a military approach. Politics and diplomacy have to wait. They will come later.

The goals to be achieved are clear: to destroy the self-proclaimed Islamic State and protect the civilian population from further violence. These objectives do call for a major allied armed offensive and also for a change of tactics when it comes to the Assad regime.

On the military side, my writing of yesterday is clear. I can only add that we just have to make sure that those who will take the decision to go for the force option have the support of the popular opinion in their countries. And then ask those leaders to move fast.

On Assad, it is time to make a difference between the man and his people. The headman will have to go. The key criminals that have directly supported him must be brought to justice as well. But we need to find ways of bringing his ethnic group, the Alawites, and all those who are around the administrative and security machineries on board, on our side, as long as they have no real crimes in their hands. They should be part of the solution. If they are not they will be, soon enough, because Assad´s collapse is getting closer, the next mass victims of the brutes that only conceive death as the appropriate punishment  for those who are different.

It is indeed time to think strategically. And be strong.

Yemen is in chaos and is a major danger

The political crisis in Yemen has now reached a new height. The country is at war with itself, on one side, and, on the other side, at the mercy of terrorists in some regions. Chaos is now the word that best describes the situation.

 In a region that is already facing deep threats to peace and human security, Yemen adds a major new stain to the regional map. And a very aggressive one, for that matter, as the level of violence in the arid lands of Yemen is comparable to the one practiced by the IS senseless criminals in the territories under their control.

Any meaningful fight against international terrorism needs to address the formidable challenges that come out of Yemen. 

Targeting IS

The air campaign against the Islamic State, as those primitive extremists are now called, is basically about good targeting. Target definition is a labour-intensive, time demanding, costly exercise. It results of the combination of a large variety of information-gathering skills, related to human and technological intelligence activities. Very few countries are in a position to do that well. That´s an area where the EU armies need to acquire additional skills and means.

Then, there is the very delicate moment of target approval. Once the potential target has been identified, the action against that target needs to be approved by the right level of authority. This has to be done with great care, to avoid errors and collateral damage.

But all this is very effective in today´s world. This is the new way of neutralising real dangerous enemies. In the current circumstances, the message to the IS fellows is that they will be routed. There is the political will and the necessary coalition to do it. Those at the forefront of the air campaign mean business.

There is another message, this one for the young people in the EU that are planning to join the radicals in the Middle East. If you go, your chances are very limited. Either you will be caught when one of the targets is destroyed or you will be, like many others, killed in a hot fight with other rival groups out there. If you survive both situations, there will be a team of policemen waiting for you in Europe when you come back from Syria or Iraq. Therefore, be wise, keep quiet and do not go. To adhere to the extremism of IS has no future for you.

To neutralise Islamic State terrorists is a priority

It is urgent to pull together an international response to the Islamic State terrorists. This is no time for further hesitation, for soul-searching strategies, for non-critical political considerations.

The key move at this stage is to form a coalition of like-minded states – that excludes Assad´s government and Iran – and agree on what needs to be done to neutralise the threat. Among other things, it is important to share intelligence on key IS leaders, on convoys and deployments, on depots, and make a much greater use of offensive drones. To contain and destroy should be the key objectives.