UN is lost in Sudan

Sudan, with President Omar al-Bashir as head of State, has been for many years a major challenge to the credibility of the United Nations. There have been a succession of clash matters, from the situation in South Sudan, to Darfur, the arrest warrant against the President by the International Criminal Court, the many obstacles raised by the authorities against the UN activities in the country, including the peacekeeping mission in Darfur, and so on and so on.

The fact of the matter is that the Khartoum government under the leadership of al-Bashir is hostile to the UN presence in the country. And, on the other side of the coin, the UN has not been particularly good at defining a strategic approach to the country´s leaders. This has a major impact on UN´s credibility, particularly in the area of peace operations.

Now, the UN Development Programme top officials in the country – the Resident Coordinator and the Country Director – have just been expelled by the government, under the direct authority of al-Bashir. They will leave the country after the week end. And once again New York has been weak and tentative in its response.

Sudan and South Sudan

For those who know well the key political players in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, it is difficult to believe those leaders are not playing some games in South Sudan. It is difficult to imagine they are keeping themselves at a prudent distance and not trying to strike some deals with Riek Machar, the head of the rebellion in the South.

The opposite is more likely.

For many reasons, of course, but above all for two main motives.

First, Khartoum is in the middle of a dramatic economic environment. There is very little foreign currency left, serious shortages of basic goods such as wheat, high unemployment and uncontrollable inflation. They need the oil revenues to keep flowing. And the wells are in the regions of South where Machar´s fighters are stronger. For Khartoum it makes then a lot of sense to be on Machar´s side.

Second, there are many in Sudan´s political establishment that have never accepted the independence of South Sudan. For them, Salva Kiir and his group in Juba are living reminders of the humiliation the North suffered. Whatever can be done to make them in South Sudan pay for such humiliation of the “Arabs” in the Sudan should not be missed. Creating havoc in the South is a good way of paying back.

Revenge is a way of life and a leading political approach in this part of world.