The UN in South Sudan needs teeth

John Kerry, who was visiting Luanda today, has shown he is deeply concerned with the crisis situation in South Sudan. The civil war is going on. It is even getting more violent, now that talks about talks between the two main opposing parties are being aired. For the Americans, South Sudan is important. The country has a large interest group in the US, particularly amongst the Christian fundamentalists. That´s politically relevant.

The UN mission in South Sudan – UNMISS – has been politically weak. And it has also lacked the strength and the will to have a more robust security role. It is time for the Americans to raise that matter with the UN Secretary-General. And to help the SG to find the right response to the weaknesses. It is not good for the UN´s image and work in the region to been seen as unable to have a stronger and clearer stance on the South Sudanese crisis. 

Kiir should take a bold political initiative

Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan, has managed to collect the support of the regional leaders. But the crisis is deepening. The ceasefire discussions in Addis Ababa are not making any visible progress. The humanitarian situation is worsening.

In this deteriorating context,  the international community should tell President Kiir that the support he is getting from the region should encourage him to seek a political solution. Because of the backing he is receiving from his neighbours he is more than anybody else in a stronger position when it comes to taking the political initiative. He should understand that the region and the international community can only see an all-inclusive political agreement as the way forward for sustainable peace and nation building in South Sudan. Anything else, including the military option, is just a recipe for further collapse and human misery. 

Sudan and South Sudan

For those who know well the key political players in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, it is difficult to believe those leaders are not playing some games in South Sudan. It is difficult to imagine they are keeping themselves at a prudent distance and not trying to strike some deals with Riek Machar, the head of the rebellion in the South.

The opposite is more likely.

For many reasons, of course, but above all for two main motives.

First, Khartoum is in the middle of a dramatic economic environment. There is very little foreign currency left, serious shortages of basic goods such as wheat, high unemployment and uncontrollable inflation. They need the oil revenues to keep flowing. And the wells are in the regions of South where Machar´s fighters are stronger. For Khartoum it makes then a lot of sense to be on Machar´s side.

Second, there are many in Sudan´s political establishment that have never accepted the independence of South Sudan. For them, Salva Kiir and his group in Juba are living reminders of the humiliation the North suffered. Whatever can be done to make them in South Sudan pay for such humiliation of the “Arabs” in the Sudan should not be missed. Creating havoc in the South is a good way of paying back.

Revenge is a way of life and a leading political approach in this part of world. 

Nairobi communiqué on South Sudan is biaised

It is clear that the crisis in South Sudan can only be resolved through political negotiations between the President´s camp and Riek Machar´s supporters. It cannot be imposed by communiqué, even if the communiqué is signed by a number of the region´s heads of state. In this context, today´s outcome of the Nairobi summit is a bit of a disappointment. And it is certainly not good enough in terms of the peace process. We need a different, more balanced and less formalist approach. 

South Sudan in an unstable region

The role being played by Ethiopia and Kenya in South Sudan deserves appreciation. The leaders of both countries have understood that the Sudanese crisis could rapidly unravel out of control and destroy the country´s fragile unity. It would also have a wider impact as it would contribute to destabilise some of the neighbouring countries as well.

Last year I wrote an essay on the impact of South Sudan´s emergency as a new unstable country on the region: Security and Stability. Reflections on the Impact of South Sudan on Regional Political Dynamics.

I think it is time to read it again. It is available on the NUPI website, the Norwegian Institute for International Relations, with the following link:
http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf