Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

Portuguese Socialist Party is like wildfire

Politics is not for the faint of heart. You cannot be afraid of fire. And you have to be in the kitchen all the time but also keep an eye on the outside yard. Nobody is going to give you an easy time, if you are a personality in politics.

In Portugal, the leader of the Socialist Party is getting that message. His party was the number one on Sunday European elections. But with less than 32% of the votes the Socialists were not far ahead from the governing coalition, with their 28% share. It was a tiny victory.

The party´s internal opposition to the current leader moved fast. On Tuesday their main figurehead, the mayor of Lisbon, was out in the media, to announce he was ready to fight for the party´s leadership and take over from the current secretary-general. The latter was not specially amused by such a move. In particular because he had signed, last year, a peace agreement with the Lisbon mayor, the same fellow that has now decided to challenge him. Furthermore, he learned about the challenge through the media.

The mayor is playing some big cards within the party, including Mario Soares, the party´s founder and godfather. The current Secretary-general, on his side, is playing the rules. His point is that is mandate is not over, that the statutes do not foresee a change at this time. The rules are indeed clear.

But in party politics the rules book changes pretty often. Like wildfires. They go with the direction of the wind. 

Hollande has cut short the socialist ambitions

The West European socialists, on the centre-left, the social-democrat kind of socialists, feel these days very betrayed by François Hollande. Based on his press conference of 14 January, they think he has changed course and is basically courting the employers. For them, Hollande is now more interested in making it easier for the capitalists to invest than in matters such as employment, public investment, and protecting the social rights of the workers.

There is disappointment in the air, within the socialist circles.

And also the fear that they will lose quite a number of seats in the May European Parliament elections.

The fact of the matter is that the European socialist movement has lost the initiative. It has not be able to come up with a coherent and appealing body of ideas that could be seen as a credible alternative to the Right.

Why is it?

Political clarity in Portugal

Portugal goes to bed tonight with a clear mind: the President has decided that the current Prime Minister and his coalition government will remain in power and will have a chance to complete their mandate.

My hope is that the PM and the leader of the junior party in the coalition have learned one or two governance lessons and become more responsive to political dialogue with others, including the key opposition party – the Socialists – and business and labour leaders.